The administrators who run the College Football Playoff have gotten ahead of themselves. They will come together in a regularly scheduled meeting Wednesday in Dallas to discuss altering the CFP not knowing how many conferences there will be or who will be in them.
That's just one uncertainty for a meeting that only a couple of days ago looked significant. Now, it appears as if it might be more kicking the can down the road in regard to making momentous decisions.
"I think we're probably going to talk about it, but I don't think it is going to be near enough settled so that we can begin to even model," said one of the commissioners who will be in attendance.
At issue for the CFP is structure, format and revenue distribution -- for starters -- in light of radical realignment that is not yet over. The ACC's expansion consideration of California, Stanford and SMU will last at least one more day after a meeting of league presidents was canceled Monday.
Then you have the fact that the fate of Oregon State and Washington State is not going to be decided until at least next week. Their decision could impact the future composition of at least two conferences, the Mountain West and American, which seem to be competition for what may be the last two Pac-12 schools.
If this confusing process sounds a lot like how the CFP arrived at a 12-team bracket to begin with, you would be right. Remember, discussions about expanding the field began in 2019. It took until last September to finalize details.
What we know for now: Beginning in 2024, for a span of at least two seasons, the field will be expanded to 12 teams. That's mostly it. Beginning in 2026 with a new media rights deal in place, several sources tell CBS Sports "everything" is on the table in terms of the CFP's structure.
The original plan was to populate the field with the six highest-ranked conference champions and six at-large teams. However, with the Pac-12 dissolving in one way or another, that automatic qualifier number will need to be addressed.
"The handwriting is on the wall," one commissioner told CBS Sports." There's not going to be a Pac-12 left."
At least one current Group of Five conference is believed to be in favor of the 6-6 model moving to 5-7 with five conference champions automatically qualifying. The Big Ten and SEC are certainly aiming to have as many at-large teams in the field as possible.
The two leagues have separated themselves from the rest of college football as economic behemoths. Will this be the meeting where those leagues exercise their awesome might regarding a big-picture issue? SEC commissioner Greg Sankey is on record as saying several times he could live with an all-at large field of 12 teams.
The implications of that have become obvious.
The SEC and Big Ten, as they will be comprised in 2024, would have combined to average 7.3 teams annually in a 12-team field (61%) if one had been in place since the start of the playoff. That means an average of 4.7 playoff spots remaining for the other 99 FBS schools.
What indicators are there that the commissioners can move fast enough this time? Largely, there aren't any.
- Commissioners aren't in a position to discuss revenue distribution. Negotiations for that new CFP contract (beginning in 2026) probably won't begin for another 6-8 months, sources tell CBS Sports.
- Only after that can revenue distribution be discussed. In the current model, the Power Five conferences each get $80 million annually as a flat participation fee. You shouldn't have to be told there is no longer a Power Five with the dissolution of the Pac-12. Nor should you have to be told the Big Ten and SEC will likely seek a larger piece of the pie for themselves.
- Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh added a possible complication on Monday. He advocated for revenue sharing with players.
- Early estimates have put the value of the new CFP deal upwards of $2 billion. That would make it by far the biggest college media rights deal in history. Harbaugh's comments at least add pressure onto the CFP and/or conferences to figure out a way to share some of that bounty with players.
- Adding to the uncertainty, Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff will be at the meeting. It's not sure what role he'll play or what voting rights he carries. There is already a complicated process as to who owns what and where existing revenue goes as the Pac-12 breaks apart.
"There are so many questions that have to be answered inside the organization," a commissioner said of the CFP.
Just don't expect much closure Wednesday.
