The fate of Oregon State and Washington State in terms of their future conference alignment will extend until at least Labor Day if not longer, sources told CBS Sports.
American commissioner Mike Aresco is expected to engage with both schools by Zoom next week. An in-person meeting to both campuses is expected soon after, sources said. Mountain West commissioner Gloria Nevarez has already pitched both schools.
That somewhat clarifies what has become a competition between the two conferences for the two remaining Pac-12 schools in the Northwest, though the interest of the MWC and AAC does not preclude another conference from potentially getting involved.
Oregon State and Washington State are being advised not to make a decision until it is clear what revenue remains to be distributed from what appears to be the dissolution of the Pac-12. That windfall could be upwards of the mid-eight figures, sources told CBS Sports. It remains to be seen whether and how much of that revenue would be split with the other eight Pac-12 schools.
Meanwhile, California, Stanford and SMU continue to seek entry into the ACC with the league considering different revenue models should they be admitted. The ACC would need 12 of 15 presidents to approve such a move; an unofficial vote previously came back with only 11 of 15 presidents in favor of welcoming the teams into the league with Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and NC State on the other side.
As of Saturday morning, no meeting of ACC presidents has been called. However, one source involved in the process told CBS Sports that ACC expansion "is trending very strongly" for Cal and Stanford.
Regardless, it appears realignment will continue through Wednesday's regularly scheduled College Football Playoff meeting in Dallas.
Administrators will gather to discuss format and access to the expanded 12-team bracket, which begins in 2024. They will do so without knowing the exact number of conferences nor where Cal, Stanford, Oregon State and Washington State will land.
However, one commissioner concluded: "The handwriting is on the wall; there isn't going to be a Pac-12 left."
An industry source downplayed the concept of a best-of hybrid conference involving Oregon State, Washington State and various schools from the American and Mountain West. That person said the exit fees alone could be prohibitive. For example, any MWC school that doesn't provide at least one year's notice would owe $34 million in exit fees.
It appears, then, that Oregon State and Washington State would be add-ons to one of those existing conferences. How that is portrayed semantically and legally in the process -- whether the Pac-12 brand endures in any way -- remains to be seen.
Both schools are presently consulting former NCAA vice president and West Virginia athletic director Oliver Luck on their next moves.
What has become clearer is what media rights revenue Oregon State and Washington State will earn going forward.
In the final year of the current Pac-12 deal, the league's average annual value (AAV) is $20.8 million. The MWC has an AAV of $4 million with weighted shares going toward Boise State in a deal with CBS and Fox. The American's AAV is $7 million with ESPN. It also has a separate basketball deal with CBS and gets revenue from the Army-Navy Game on CBS.
At least in the AAC, Oregon State and Washington State would be making pro rata -- the going rate for current members. That means the Beavers and Cougars would see their annual earnings drop by nearly two thirds compared to their current Pac-12 take. In the Mountain West, the negotiation for media rights would at least start at pro rata.
The trade-off? Survival. Those schools would at least find a home in a conference with access to the playoff.
Because of the apparent collapse of the Pac-12, there conceivably would be a net savings for both ESPN (AAC) and Fox (MWC) to fund expansion.
The current MWC deal expires in two years. The AAC deal has 10 years left to run. The decision for Oregon State and Washington State would seemingly come down to the geographical fit of the MWC on the West Coast vs. more revenue in the aac.
All remaining moves in realignment would be in time for the 2024 football season.
