In-state rivals will battle to remain undefeated and in the College Football Playoff conversation on Saturday afternoon in East Lansing, Mich. The No. 6 Michigan Wolverines visit the No. 8 Michigan State Spartans in an early start, and the contest will include lofty stakes. Michigan is 7-0 this season, including a 4-0 mark in Big Ten play. Michigan State has an identical record, and the Spartans have a rest advantage after a bye week.
Kickoff is set for noon ET at Spartan Stadium. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Wolverines as four-point road favorites in the latest Michigan vs. Michigan State odds. The over-under for total points is set at 50.5. Before locking in any Michigan State vs. Michigan picks, make sure you check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,900 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Week 9 of the 2021 season on a 26-11 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Michigan vs. Michigan State and just locked in its coveted picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see all of the model's CFB picks. Now, here are the college football odds and trends for Michigan State vs. Michigan:
- Michigan vs. Michigan State spread: Michigan -4
- Michigan vs. Michigan State over-under: 50.5 points
- Michigan vs. Michigan State money line: Michigan -200, MSU +170
- MICH: The Wolverines are 6-1 against the spread this season
- MSU: The Spartans are 5-1-1 against the spread in 2021
Why Michigan can cover
Michigan's top strength is its running game this season, with the Wolverines leading the Big Ten and ranking in the top five nationally with 253.3 rushing yards per game. Jim Harbaugh's team has two top-flight running backs and a strong offensive line, and Michigan State will have trouble slowing Michigan's ground attack. That isn't the only strength for the Wolverines, though, as Michigan's defense is playing quite well.
The Wolverines are No. 2 in the country in allowing 14.3 points per game, and no team in the Big Ten has allowed fewer touchdown runs (three) than Michigan. The Wolverines are No. 2 in the Big Ten in total defense (299.0 yards allowed per game), with top-four marks in passing defense (182.4 yards allowed per game) and rushing defense (116.6 yards allowed per game). Opponents are connecting on only 54.6 percent of passes against Michigan.
Why Michigan State can cover
The Spartans have a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate in junior running back Kenneth Walker III. Walker is currently No. 2 in the country and No. 1 in the Big Ten with 997 rushing yards this season. The talented ball-carrier is averaging a robust 6.6 yards per carry with nine rushing touchdowns, and Walker is the centerpiece of Michigan State's offense. The Spartans are No. 3 in the Big Ten in both total offense (451.7 yards per game) and scoring offense (34.3 points per game).
Michigan State is also fully capable of moving the ball through the air, averaging 9.2 yards per pass attempt with 15 touchdown passes against only four interceptions. The Spartans have two top-10 wide receivers in the Big Ten in Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor, with Reed leading the conference in yards per reception (20.8) and Nailor ranking No. 2 in receiving touchdowns with six.
How to make Michigan State vs. Michigan picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the point total, projecting 52 total points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Michigan vs. Michigan State? And which side of the spread cashes in 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that finished the past five-plus years up nearly $3,900 on its FBS college football picks, and find out.