College football is back, which means weirdness and chaos are back in our lives. 

It also means upset alerts are back. 

It's a weekly practice that began last season. It's fun not because it's easy, but because it's hard. To look Vegas square in the face in an act of defiance takes a certain willingness to be wrong a lot. Every once in a while, though, Troy beats LSU, Arizona State shocks Washington or Iowa State takes down Oklahoma. And the whole idea is validated. 

Each week, I'll give you the top five upset alert games based on matchups, injuries/suspensions and other factors. Remember: "upset" is defined first and foremost by the point spread, not perception. On that note, I generally avoid games whose lines are within a touchdown with exceptions being made for cases that warrant them (I'll always explain those exceptions if/when they occur). That can make the selection process a little tougher because Week 1, as it is one to do, features a lot of lopsided lines. 

To make things more interesting, this year I'm going on the record with the picks and keeping tabs. Generally, the idea of "accountability" in game picks and overall predictions is overstated. They're guesses and it's just football, but it's all part of the fun. The scoring system is exactly the same as it is for our weekly expert picks with season-long tallies against the spread (ATS) and straight-up (SU). And if I miss entirely? Well ... 

Wake Forest at Tulane

When: Thursday, 8 p.m. ET | Where: New Orleans, Louisiana | Opening line: Wake Forest -8

Why it's listed: The worst-kept secret at CBS Sports dot com slash college football is that I'm a major Willie Fritz fan. The dude builds programs into winners. I was bullish on the Green Wave a season ago, and to be fair, they ended up literally feet from bowl eligibility. This year's offense should be fun and Wake Forest has lost a lot of key components from its run defense that was so good last year. 

Tulane's key to the game: It's helmet. Kidding ... sort of. Anyway, the offense should do its job. They question is whether Tulane can stop the retooled #Clawfense. This was a poor pass defense in the second half of last season, though it should be noted they were playing more pass-centric offenses regularly. The back end of this year's team has some nice returning players who will need to come up big. 

Wake Forest's key to the game: The thing about playing an offense like Tulane is it requires discipline and support from every level of the defense. The losses of linebackers Jaboree Williams and Grant Dawson and edge rushers Wendell Dunn and Euke Ejiofor are notable, but there's not a complete lack of talent coming back. Winning up front is the first step in taking away Tulane's run game. 

Pick: I've raved about Fritz, so here's a nod to Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson. He's also a bonafide program builder. There's depth that Wake Forest has that it hasn't had in a long time. However, I feel strongly that Tulane's signature win is coming. This game pairs the Green Wave's strength vs. one of Wake Forest's bigger question marks entering the season. ATS: Tulane, SU: Tulane

Northern Illinois vs. Iowa

When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET | Where: Iowa City, Iowa | Opening line: Iowa -13 

Why it's listed: Iowa is my pick for the most underrated team in the country. Thus, I've effectively, albeit not maliciously, damned the Hawkeyes to a season of misery. The tell-tale sign of which will be when, down a field goal in the fourth quarter, Kirk Ferentz opts to punt on a fourth-and-2 from the opponent's 36-yard line. 

Anyway, the real reason is suspensions. Iowa is down three starters and a key rotational player along the offensive and defensive lines. This is particularly interesting considering NIU had one of the most disruptive defensive fronts a year ago and edge rusher Sutton Smith is back. 

Northern Illinois' key to the game: If that defense keeps putting Iowa behind the sticks. While Nate Stanley is an effective quarterback for Iowa, the nucleus has always been the run game. Can the NIU defensive front hold its own? If so, suspensions and a new starting running back will put the pressure on Iowa's line to get by in pass protection. 

Iowa's key to the game: The new-look linebacker group needs to get off to a good start. Replacing three senior starters who were the top three tacklers is, well, a task. Reasonable minds should expect a dropoff, but can the middle of the defense be good enough to win?

Pick: The line is down to -10.5 for the Hawkeyes. I can buy that the Huskies will cover, but I can't quite make myself go all the way. ATS: NIU, SU: Iowa

No. 22 Boise State at Troy

When: Saturday, 6 p.m. ET | Where: Troy, Alabama | Opening line: Boise State -10.5

Why it's listed: Boise State, not UCF, could be the Group of Five's favorite to land in a New Year's Six bowl game. There are two particularly challenging nonconference games on paper, one of which is this weekend. Troy replaces quarterback Brandon Silvers and its top two running backs, but there's some good BEEF in the trenches with four first-team preseason, all-conference selections along the offensive and defensive lines. Couple in what should be a hot, humid evening and this game could turn into a slugfest. 

Troy's key to the game: Shorten the field. This is a rough matchup against a talented defense and what the Trojans need more than anything is situational football that's going to make life easier on them. Neal Brown is a exceptional offensive coach, but it's not going to drive up and down the field. 

Boise State's key to the game: Quarterback Brett Rypien needs to be the MVP. He's the Mountain West's preseason Offensive Player of the Year selection and needs to be the difference maker. It's not about throwing for X number of yards or touchdowns. Can he make the big third-down or red zone plays when needed?

Pick: The defenses are strong here, so I love the under. The Broncos are the better team and get the win, but Troy covers. ATS: Troy, SU: Boise State

Indiana at FIU

When: Saturday, 6 p.m. ET | Where: Miami, Florida | Opening line: Indiana -10.5

Why it's listed: Oh, heck yes. Give me those sweet, sweet home dogs. The Panthers were an immediate surprise in 2017 under coach Butch Davis, winning eight games. While they don't return a ton of starting experience, they're stacked along the D-line. Overall, though, both teams are breaking in a lot of new guys, so this one should be, if nothing else, sloppy. That can sometimes venn diagram its way into weird. 

FIU's key to the game: The pass defense is concerning, which means two things. FIU needs its defensive front to do work, which it can, and the offense needs to get off to a fast start. If FIU wins this game it's because it holds on, not because it comes from behind.

Indiana's key to the game: Say this for the Hoosiers: they have an experienced O-line on which to lean. So lean on it. While the backfield doesn't have one single breakout star -- projected starter Morgan Ellison is suspended indefinitely -- there are enough bodies to keep fresh legs late in the game. 

Pick: Would the casual fan consider this an upset? Either way, I have to go on record sometime and I'm choosing to stick my neck out for Davis. That's always worked 100 percent of the time, right? ATS: FIU, SU: FIU

No. 20 Virginia Tech at No. 19 Florida State

When: Monday, 8 p.m. ET | Where: Tallahassee, Florida | Opening line: Florida State -7.5

Why it's listed: Don't take it personally, Florida State. Week 1 isn't exactly ripe with upset potential among top-25 teams. Now that the line has moved to Florida State -7.5, I feel more comfortable including this game. Both teams have their questions, but both could also be surprise teams in the ACC this year. The unpredictability of it all makes for an interesting bow to put on the end of Week 1.

Virginia Tech's key to the game: What kind of wonders can defensive coordinator Bud Foster work up from the start? This is a new-look defense and the linebacker unit in particular has a lot of fresh faces. Florida State might be changing offenses, but there are a lot of starters/key contributors returning with plenty of athleticism to boot. 

Florida State's key to the game: I'd like to think that coach Willie Taggart will at least make the Seminoles fun to watch on offense again. Receiver Nyqwan Murray is on the verge of having a special year. I don't worry so much about Florida State's run game, but the connection between Murray and starting quarterback Deondre Francois will be something to monitor. 

Pick: Taggart is actually magical against the spread vs. Power Five competition in season openers. I say this because he coached Western Kentucky and South Florida back in the days when they were terrible and only served as an easy W for opponents willing enough to pay money for them. And, yet, Taggart usually covered. The dynamics are different this time as the favorite. Virginia Tech has defensive questions, but Florida State is breaking in a new offense and it's all a little bit of a wild card right now. The Noles should win, but the line has moved enough for me to think the Hokies can stay within a touchdown.  ATS: Virginia Tech, SU: Florida State