Can Justin Rose come from behind? (USATSI)
Can Justin Rose come from behind? (USATSI)

You probably didn't notice, but the European Tour is having its Tour Championship this week which concludes its Race to Dubai (equivalent to the PGA Tour's FedEx Cup). There are a lot of storylines that could play out including a Rory McIlroy vs. Justin Rose duel for a large chunk of cash.

First, the basics.

What: World Tour Championship
Where: Jumeirah Golf Estates (Dubai)
When: November 19-22

Here's a look at the big stories heading into the European Tour's final week of the season.

1. There's a lot at stake

With over $1 million going to the winner of the World Tour Championship an additional $1.25 million going to the player who finishes first in the Race to Dubai, there's a lot at stake at this tournament. It's no PGA Tour Championship (over $1M to the winner and $10M to the winner of the FedEx Cup), but it's not a joke either. There's a reason Rory McIlroy is still playing golf in mid-November.

2. There's a lot of math

I'll save you the calculus. McIlroy and Danny Willett are so far ahead of everyone that it will likely come down to who finishes better of the two of them regardless of who wins the tournament. The next five players (Justin Rose, Shane Lowry, Louis Oosthuizen, Branden Grace and Byeong Hun An) could take the title if McIlroy and Willett slip.

Those two are the only ones who control their own destiny, however. 

3. A top dog usually wins

In four of the six World Tour Championships, a golfer ranked inside the top five in the world has taken home the crown. That's not really unlike the PGA Tour Championship, but it's worth mentioning when guys like Willett, Lowry and An are inside the top 10 in Race to Dubai points.

4. Rory McIlroy is a top dog

In six appearances, McIlroy has beaten 94 percent of the competition he has faced here. He hasn't won it since 2012, though. That's because the Swedish Assassain has taken it home the past two seasons.

5. What about Henrik Stenson?

Stenson is the man I'm referencing. He won in 2013 and then again in 2014. He has owned this event of late, combining to go 41 under in his past eight rounds here and defeating Victor Dubuisson, Justin Rose, Ian Poulter and McIlroy in the process. He currently sits in 16th place, though. Even if he wins, it won't be enough to overtake some of the top players for the overall Race to Dubai title.

6. Who am I picking?

It's hard to not go with McIlroy here. He's so far ahead of everyone except for Willett that it's tough to see him not winning unless he loses to Willett.

"I didn't quite think I'd be in this position, and coming into this event, especially after taking the week off last week, but a few of the guys didn't capitalize on that in China thankfully and I find myself in a position where it's totally in my hands," McIlroy said earlier this week. 

"If I go out and win the tournament, I win the overall thing no matter what anybody elsedoes, and that's a nice position to be in. Obviously that's the main objective this week, and I feel like I'm playing well enough to do that.

"I'd love to be flying away from here on Monday morning with wrapping up The Race to Dubai; it would be a great way to finish the season and it would be very disappointing if that wasn't the case."

I will, too, since he's my pick.

Rory McIlroy goes for two in four years. (USATSI)
Rory McIlroy goes for two in four years. (USATSI)