Kyle Busch won his only race last season on the dirt at Bristol, but coming into the 2023 Food City Dirt Race, he already has one victory under his belt this year. Busch started second last week at Richmond and led for a single lap before finishing 14th, so should you bank on him to come back strong in your NASCAR at Bristol bets? Busch is one of the favorites in the 2023 Food City Dirt Race odds listed on Caesars Sportsbook at 10-1, but he's part of a crowded group at the top of the field.
Ahead of Busch are other 2023 Food City Dirt Race contenders like Chase Briscoe (9-1), Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick, who are both 6-1. Kyle Larson, who finished fourth in last year's race, is the overall favorite at 9-2. Before scouring the 2023 Bristol Dirt Race starting lineup and making any 2023 NASCAR at Bristol predictions, be sure to see the latest 2023 Bristol Dirt Race picks from SportsLine's proven NASCAR model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
McClure's model is off to a red-hot start this season, already nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), and Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1). Then it called Tyler Reddick one of its best values two weeks ago when he won in Austin for a 10-1 payout. It also impressively nailed five of Kyle Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping nine winners since 2021. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2023 Food City Dirt Race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2023 NASCAR at Bristol leaderboard.
Top 2023 Bristol Dirt Race predictions
One surprise: the model is high on Daniel Suarez, even though he is a 20-1 longshot in the latest 2023 NASCAR at Bristol odds. Suarez has finished outside of the top 20 in each of his last four races, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. His odds show that his recent form is being weighed more heavily than his recent history on the dirt.
In his two Cup Series races on the dirt track at Bristol, Suarez has finished significantly better than he started, with a 12th-place showing last year after starting 21st, and a top-five performance in 2021. Over the last two years, he has the fifth-best driver rating among all drivers on the dirt at Bristol (101.2), despite struggling to find the same kind of success on traditional short tracks. Something about driving on the dirt suits Suarez, and he should be one of the most competitive racers on Sunday. See who else to back at SportsLine.
And a massive shocker: Christopher Bell, one of the Vegas favorites at 6-1, stumbles big time and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in the 2023 Food City Dirt Race starting lineup. The 28-year-old is coming off a season where he became a household name, winning three times on his way to finishing third in the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series standings.
Bell is third in the 2023 NASCAR standing as well after four top-five finishes in his first seven starts. However, he's also had two finishes outside the top 30 and he's actually backed up in both of his Bristol Dirt Race starts. He started 15th and finished 34th after a crash in 2021 and then started second and finished seventh last season. See which other drivers to avoid at SportsLine.
How to make 2023 NASCAR at Bristol picks
The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2023 Bristol NASCAR odds of 14-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the Food City Dirt Race 2023? And which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2023 NASCAR at Bristol odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2023 Bristol NASCAR leaderboard, all from the model that already called winners at the Clash, Duel and Pala Casino 400.
2023 Food City Dirt Race odds, lineup
See full 2023 NASCAR at Bristol picks at SportsLine
Kyle Larson 9-2
Tyler Reddick 6-1
Christopher Bell 6-1
Chase Briscoe 9-1
Kyle Busch 10-1
William Byron 12-1
Joey Logano 12-1
Ryan Blaney 14-1
Denny Hamlin 15-1
Alex Bowman 20-1
Ross Chastain 20-1
Martin Truex Jr. 20-1
Daniel Suarez 20-1
Brad Keselowski 25-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 25-1
Kevin Harvick 30-1
Christ Buescher 35-1
Ty Gibbs 50-1
Bubba Wallace 50-1
Austin Dillon 50-1
Josh Berry 50-1
Jonathan Davenport 60-1
Ryan Preece 60-1
Michael McDowell 65-1
Justin Haley 75-1
Todd Gilliland 75-1
Ty Dillon 75-1
A.J. Allmendinger 100-1
Erik Jones 150-1
Austin Cindric 150-1
Aric Almirola 200-1
Noah Gragson 250-1
Harrison Burton 300-1
Corey Lajoie 500-1
JJ Yeley 2000-1
BJ McLeod 5000-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
