The Cup Series enters its seventh week and will make its first venture to a short track on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET for the 2023 Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway. It's the first of three straight short tracks on the Cup Series schedule. There's been a high variance of winners in recent trips to the 0.75-mile asphalt track, with five different winners over the last five races entering 2023 NASCAR at Richmond.

Kevin Harvick was victorious in the last NASCAR Richmond race and is an 11-2 co-favorite in the latest 2023 Toyota Owners 400 odds from Caesars Sportsbook, alongside William Byron. There are six drivers with single-digit 2023 NASCAR at Richmond odds, including Kyle Larson (6-1) and Martin Truex Jr. (15-2). Before scouring the 2023 Toyota Owners 400 starting lineup and making any 2023 NASCAR at Richmond predictions, be sure to see the latest 2023 Toyota Owners 400 picks from SportsLine's proven NASCAR model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

McClure's model is off to a red-hot start this season, already nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), and Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1). Then it called Tyler Reddick one of its best values last week when he won in Austin for a 10-1 payout. It also impressively nailed five of Kyle Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping nine winners since 2021. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2023 Toyota Owners 400 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2023 NASCAR at Richmond leaderboard.

Top 2023 Toyota Owners 400 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Joey Logano, even though he's a 15-1 long shot in the latest 2023 NASCAR at Richmond odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The reigning Cup Series champion picked up his first season victory two weeks ago in Atlanta. Logano has been exceptional at Richmond since joining Team Penske in 2013, as over his 19 NASCAR at Richmond starts since then, he's notched 15 top-10 finishes.

Logano's Richmond history is a microcosm of his success on short tracks. His average finish of 12.4 on short tracks is the fourth-best mark amongst active drivers, and exactly one-third of all of his starts have resulted in top-five finishes. He won Stage 2 at the last Richmond NASCAR race, and his ability to be in contention gives him value for your 2023 NASCAR at Richmond bets, according to the model. See who else to back at SportsLine.

And a massive shocker: Kevin Harvick, one of the Vegas favorites at 6-1, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in the 2023 Toyota Owners 400 starting lineup. Harvick won at Richmond last August and has a total of four career victories on the three-quarter mile oval.

However, he hasn't run well in recent weeks, finishing 33rd in Atlanta after a crash and 13th last week at Circuit of the Americas. This is scheduled to be his final full-time season in the NASCAR Cup Series. See which other drivers to avoid at SportsLine.

How to make 2023 NASCAR at Richmond picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2023 Richmond NASCAR odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Toyota Owners 400 2023? And which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2023 NASCAR at Richmond odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2023 Richmond NASCAR leaderboard, all from the model that already called winners at the Clash, Duel and Pala Casino 400.

2023 Toyota Owners 400 odds, lineup

See full 2023 NASCAR at Richmond picks at SportsLine

William Byron 11-2
Kyle Larson 6-1
Kevin Harvick 6-1
Christopher Bell 15-2
Denny Hamlin 8-1
Martin Truex Jr. 17-2
Kyle Busch 10-1
Ryan Blaney 15-1
Joey Logano 15-1
Tyler Reddick 17-1
Ross Chastain 17-1
Alex Bowman 20-1
Brad Keselowski 22-1
Chris Buescher 30-1
Daniel Suarez 30-1
Josh Berry 30-1
Aric Almirola 45-1
Bubba Wallace 50-1
Chase Briscoe 50-1
Ty Gibbs 75-1
Austin Cindric 75-1
Austin Dillon 75-1
Ryan Preece 100-1
Erik Jones 100-1
A.J. Allmendinger 100-1
Michael McDowell 200-1
Chandler Smith 200-1
Noah Gragson 200-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 300-1
Justin Haley 400-1
Harrison Burton 400-1
Corey Lajoie 1000-1
Todd Gilliland 1500-1
Ty Dillon 2000-1
Anthony Alfredo 2500-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
JJ Yeley 5000-1