The blank slate of a new year, and the promise that it presents, is a thing of beauty for NASCAR drivers and teams. When the calendar turns, everyone has the same amount of wins, top fives and top 10s, and no one has torn up a car or botched a pit stop or just plain missed on the setup yet. At the start of January, a month before the Busch Light Clash at the L.A. Coliseum and a month and change before the Daytona 500, everyone is capable of absolutely anything.
The unpredictability of NASCAR, particularly in a long season that extends from Valentine's Day to Veterans Day, is one of the appealing qualities that makes it like no other form of motorsports in the world. But that isn't to say the developments and top drivers of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season can't be predicted, and we're certainly going to try.
Here are CBS Sports' five bold predictions for the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season, with a focus on which drivers we expect to level up in performance and be a factor all season long.
Chris Buescher becomes one of the top drivers in NASCAR
Initially, I was going to title this as "Chris Buescher becomes a bona fide championship contender", but that would be selling Buescher way too short after he won three times and made it all the way to the Round of 8 in 2023. Still, that doesn't change what I think is coming for Buescher in 2024.
Discerning evaluators have always appreciated Buescher's talent -- he handily won the Xfinity Series championship in 2015 over Chase Elliott -- and understood the teams he had been with earlier in his Cup career hadn't been truly capable of showcasing that talent. The revitalization of RFK Racing over the past two seasons, though, has seen Buescher statistically improve by leaps and bounds: After setting career-high marks in 2022, he came back and shattered those highs in 2023 with nine top fives and 17 top 10s, which included three wins in a five-race stretch late in the summer.
As all signs point to RFK Racing retaking its place among the best organizations in NASCAR, that gives Buescher the opportunity to earn a seat at the table among the very best drivers in NASCAR. One year from now, we could be discussing Buescher -- whose Texas roots and fairly cool demeanor honestly give off some Terry Labonte vibes -- in the same conversation as drivers like Elliott, Ryan Blaney and Kyle Larson.
Ty Gibbs has a breakout season
Here's some more low-hanging fruit, because it's perfectly natural and logical to have Ty Gibbs pinned as a breakout candidate after he won Rookie of the Year last season. That being said, let me articulate exactly why I think that'll happen.
From the time he won in his NASCAR debut at 18 just three years ago, it has always been obvious that Gibbs is a supremely talented driver. But in winning Rookie of the Year last year, Gibbs demonstrated considerable growth in his on-track tact and demeanor which hadn't always been present even as he tore up the Xfinity Series and won its championship in 2022. There were times where the 21-year-old drove like an outright veteran, and he earned respect and proved he belongs in Cup cars.
With the strength of Joe Gibbs Racing at his disposal, Ty Gibbs is easily capable of winning early this season, winning often this season, and perhaps making plenty of noise in the playoffs late in the season.
Erik Jones returns to prominence
Remember Erik Jones? The two-time Southern 500 champion and the driver of Richard Petty's No. 43? "That Jones Boy"? I hope you didn't forget, because I think he's going to remind everyone of who he is in 2024.
After earning three top fives, 13 top 10s and another Southern 500 win in 2022, 2023 saw Jones and his race team take a step back amid a change in ownership at Legacy Motor Club and a lame duck relationship with Chevrolet amid the team's planned switch to Toyota this season. That move is now at hand, giving Legacy Motor Club its manufacturer alliance yet and giving Jones the full weight of Toyota support. And Jones, remember, came up to Cup through Toyota's development system all the way to a seat at Joe Gibbs Racing.
Jones' past relationship with Toyota helps, but his team improved their performance over the second half of last season -- five of Jones' seven top-10 finishes came from Nashville in June onward -- and reaffirmed that crew chief Dave Elenz has what it takes to get Jones to run at the front. I think you'll not only see Jones run up front regularly in 2024, but you'll also see him in the playoffs and boasting the shortest span between wins for the Petty No. 43 since the late 1990s.
Stewart-Haas Racing makes a comeback -- or do they?
Nobody is going to pretend that 2023 wasn't an awful season for Stewart-Haas Racing, especially not anyone who actually works within the confines of the shop itself. Kevin Harvick, the team's top driver in his final season, was shut out of Victory Lane. The rest of the team -- save for an Aric Almirola run here or a Ryan Preece run there -- didn't so much as come close to running inside the top 10 with any sort of consistency.
Traditionally an organization led by veteran drivers, SHR has spent the past several years infusing itself with newer and younger talent, which includes Josh Berry as the new driver of the No. 4 and Noah Gragson as the new driver of the No. 10 this season. That leaves Chase Briscoe, 29 and coming off of a down year in 2023, as the longest-tenured driver at Stewart-Haas by virtue of having driven for them in Cup since 2021.
Some of what Stewart-Haas showed later in the 2023 season -- Briscoe had a chance to win Texas and Almirola had a chance to win Martinsville -- suggests that they may be working their way back to form. But often, turning things around isn't so simple as simply changing drivers (As the No. 41 team proved last year, improving little despite swapping Cole Custer for Ryan Preece) or the image refresh campaign that SHR has started 2024 with. There are still concerns for Stewart-Haas to work through, which includes the matter of exactly where the funding for Berry, Gragson and Preece's teams is coming from.
In the best-case scenario, I think you'll see Chase Briscoe start running more like he did in 2022 -- having Richard Boswell as crew chief for a full season will certainly help -- while the No. 4, No. 10 and No. 41 teams continue to figure it out. If one of Berry, Gragson or Preece can join Briscoe in running up front on a consistent basis, that'll work wonders in proving that SHR has their act together again.
Bubba Wallace wins multiple races for the first time
If you've read our power rankings columns over the past two seasons, you've probably seen me write that a confident Bubba Wallace is an effective Bubba Wallace. And the way his 2023 went gives Wallace every reason to be confident heading into this year.
Wallace tied his 2022 output with five top fives and 10 top 10s, but his performance from the beginning to the end of the season was the most consistent of his Cup career, put him in the playoffs and got him to the Round of 12, and also showed the most upside. That included a career-high 285 laps led, which included 80 laps at Richmond in July and a race-high 111 laps from the pole at Texas.
What was missing compared to 2021 and 2022, though, was a win. And Wallace had several opportunities to get a win that he arguably gave away in the closing laps: An ill-advised block on the final lap at Talladega and a final restart he didn't execute at Texas are the two biggest missed opportunities that come to mind. The good news is Wallace should have plenty of opportunities to win moving forward. 23XI Racing has proven it's a winning organization, and a 10th-place finish for Wallace in last year's championship standings affirm that he has reached a point in his career where he's a top-10 driver in Cup.
A reasonable expectation should be for Wallace to match teammate Tyler Reddick's 2023 output in the win column, which would mean a pair of victories for one of NASCAR's most prominent stars.
Miscellaneous predictions
- One of the more surprising announcements of 2023 Silly Season was that Justin Haley would leave Kaulig Racing to join Rick Ware Racing, a move signaling that RWR is ready to take a step up in performance with an ascending young driver. If Haley can get Rick Ware's car performing at the same level the Kaulig No. 31 he vacated reached, that should do wonders in making that organization matter in the Cup competitive landscape.
- Now a full decade into his Cup career, I think it's fair -- but not bad -- to say that Austin Dillon is who he is. Dillon's 2023 was a poor one, but I think you'll continue to see him be at his best in big races, have some flash runs and keep himself in the conversation for a playoff spot late in the season.
- I'm not ready to commit to a championship pick yet, which is why you didn't see it in the main predictions above. But if you put me on the spot, something in my head tells me that I should take the prospect of Christopher Bell winning the Cup championship very seriously after two-straight berths in the Championship 4.
- If Ryan Blaney's late-season surge to the Cup championship was a sign of things to come for Team Penske, that's great news for Harrison Burton, who enters a pivotal third season as the driver of the Wood Brothers No. 21. With the two organizations very closely aligned, the Wood Brothers car should go as the Penske cars go -- and if the Penske cars start running up front regularly again, expect statistical improvement from Burton.
- If there's any driver who has the toughest act to follow in 2024, I think it's Ricky Stenhouse Jr. He'll have his share of good performances, but it's going to be quite a challenge for him and JTG Daugherty Racing to match a 2023 season that began with them winning the Daytona 500 and putting themselves in the playoffs from the jump.
- I'm approaching the idea of Spire Motorsports leveling up as an organization from a standpoint of guarded optimism. Corey LaJoie had his best season in 2023, and Spire's investments clearly show that they're looking to compete at a high level, but expanding to three cars -- with rookie drivers Zane Smith and Carson Hocevar, no less -- is a big undertaking for a race team that's just beginning to be relevant.
- I think you'll see John Hunter Nemechek have some nice runs in the Legacy Motor Club No. 42, even if his week-to-week success comes more in a part-time Xfinity Series schedule for Joe Gibbs Racing. But here's your Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week for Throwback Weekend at Darlington: I'll be shocked if Nemechek's paint scheme is anything but a throwback to the No. 42 BellSouth Chevrolet his dad drove for Team SABCO in the late 90s.
