NASCAR at Talladega Vegas picks and predictions 2018: Fade Kevin Harvick, back Ryan Newman in GEICO 500

Micah Roberts pioneered wagering on NASCAR races and just locked in his GEICO 500 picks

The 2018 NASCAR season continues on Sunday at 2 p.m. ET with the GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. Brad Keselowski is the Vegas favorite at 6-1, followed by Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano, who are both going off at 9-1. Kevin Harvick will start on the pole.

Before you make any kind of bet on the NASCAR at Talladega spring race, you need to see what Micah Roberts has to say.

As a Vegas bookmaker, Roberts was the first to offer expanded NASCAR betting. Now he hands out winners to his followers.

In the 2017 playoffs, Roberts picked nine of the 10 winners. That wasn't a fluke, either. In 2016, he told readers to back Denny Hamlin at 15-1 in the Daytona 500. The result: Hamlin edged Truex Jr. for the checkered flag. Roberts also nailed Hamlin at 40-1 to win at Watkins Glen later that year.

Earlier this season, Roberts was all-in on Kevin Harvick at the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 despite two other drivers having the same field-leading odds. The result: Harvick dominated, leading for 181 of 325 laps and cruising to victory by 2.69 seconds.

Also this season, Roberts was very high on Clint Bowyer, who snapped his 190-race winless streak in the STP 500. And at the Food City 500, he said Kyle Busch "owned" Bristol and would come away with the checkered flag. The result: Busch came from behind and crossed the finish line .63 seconds ahead of runner-up Kyle Larson.

Now, he has analyzed NASCAR at Talladega 2018 from every possible angle and locked in his picks for this restrictor-plate race. You can see his entire projected leaderboard at SportsLine.

One surprise: Roberts wants no part of Harvick, one of the Vegas favorites and the 2018 pole-sitter, at 10-1.

"Harvick has three career plate wins, one at Talladega in 2010, but none since moving from Richard Childress Racing to Stewart Haas Racing," Roberts told SportsLine.

In eight Talladega starts with Stewart Haas Racing, Harvick does not have any top-five finishes. He's not worth 10-1 odds in a loaded GEICO 500 field.

Another shocker: Roberts says Ryan Newman, going off at 60-1, makes a serious run at the title.

"In 32 Talladega starts, Newman has had a 19.7 average finish that includes six top-fives, one of which was a career-best runner-up last fall," Roberts told SportsLine. "He was eighth in the Daytona 500 and his teammate, Austin Dillon, won the race."

Roberts says Newman is a legitimate contender to get his first career Talladega win. He's a driver you should be all over on Sunday.

Roberts also loves a major sleeper who excels in restrictor-plate races to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs this underdog could hit it big.

So who wins the 2018 GEICO 500? And which long shots stun the racing world? Visit SportsLine now see the full projected leaderboard from the nation's premier NASCAR handicapper, and find out.