One of the curses of humanity is that most only realize the value of time when it is scarce and almost gone. And for seven drivers still hoping to be called a NASCAR Cup Series champion, their time is running out.
This weekend's trip to Martinsville Speedway for the Xfinity 500 marks the penultimate race of the 2022 season and the final race of the Round of 8 in the playoffs, meaning that it's now or never for those still hoping to make the Championship 4 and race for the title in Phoenix. Of the eight drivers remaining in the playoffs, only Joey Logano has secured his berth in the final round, leaving three spots up for the taking at the end of 500 laps around NASCAR's oldest and most timeless racetrack.
After two second-place finishes in a row, Ross Chastain stands 19 points above the cut line, and Chase Elliott enjoys an 11-point cushion over fifth-place Denny Hamlin. Beyond the five-point dogfight between William Byron and Hamlin for the final Championship 4 spot, three drivers with major points deficits -- Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe -- are looking to change their fate with a do-or-die rally and potential Martinsville victory.
How to Watch the NASCAR playoffs at Martinsville
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 30
- Location: Martinsville Speedway -- Ridgeway, Va.
- Time: 2 p.m. ET
- TV: NBC
- Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
What to Watch
Quality of Racing
Considering that Martinsville Speedway is the very sort of Southern short track that stock car racing and its characteristics were built on, you would think Martinsville's brand of racing would be impossible to screw up. But somehow, the debut of the Next Gen car at Martinsville in the spring invited the idea that NASCAR had somehow done just that.
In Martinsville's last race in April, the aerodynamic characteristics of the Next Gen car created turbulent air that was difficult for drivers to break out of on a one lane racetrack like Martinsville. And a hard tire combined with unseasonably cold temperatures led to very little tire falloff and very little rubber being laid down on the racetrack to create discrepancies in grip. As a result, passing was next to impossible on long runs, and drivers couldn't even get close enough to the car in front of them to make passes the physical way before turbulent air cancelled out their forward momentum.
That helped lead to two drivers combining to lead 397 of the race's 403 laps, with the only passes for the lead occurring on pit road, and just four cautions -- only one of which was for an on-track incident. Since then, NASCAR has set out to rectify the issues seen at Martinsville in the spring, with the track since holding a Goodyear tire test in June and an organizational test in August to try and improve the racing product.
This weekend, Goodyear will be bringing completely new left and right-side tires, and a gear change has also been made. However, there is an undercurrent of a lack of optimism that any changes will make a significant difference, particularly given the performance of the Next Gen car on similar tracks this year.
"We've got a tough Martinsville race that's coming up," Denny Hamlin said during a media scrum several weeks ago at Talladega. "It's gonna be tough, and this thing's just gonna get exposed about how bad it races."
Assuming Martinsville does not offer the sort of racing that NASCAR desires, the sanctioning body may very well end up going back to the drawing board on the Next Gen car for short tracks and road courses this offseason -- perhaps revisiting characteristics such as the car's wider tires and bigger brakes, which offer more grip and more precise deceleration but also minimize the potential for driver error.
Clinch Scenarios
With three spots still available in the Championship 4, the seven drivers who have still yet to clinch a spot in the next round can do so either by winning at Martinsville or, in some cases, pointing their way in. While the points deficits of Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe suggest that both drivers are in must-win scenarios, neither has been mathematically eliminated from advancing on points alone.
If there is no new winner from below the cut line, the three drivers currently above the cut line can clinch a spot in the Championship 4 as long as they score a certain number of points. But if there is a new winner from below the cut line, the number of points they need increases while also putting William Byron in a position where there is no magic number he can reach on points to be absolutely safe.
The Championship 4 clinch scenarios are as follows:
- Ross Chastain -- Can clinch with 36 points (41 if there is a new winner)
- Chase Elliott -- Can clinch with 45 points (50 if there is a new winner)
- William Byron -- Can clinch with 51 points
Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe will only be able to clinch a Championship 4 spot on points with help. For those four drivers, winning Martinsville is their most straightforward path to moving on to the Championship 4.
Since the adoption of NASCAR's current playoff format in 2014, a playoff driver has won the final race of the Round of 8 five times, twice of which leading to the winner going on to also win the Cup Series championship. Kevin Harvick went on to win the 2014 championship after winning the penultimate race of the year at Phoenix, while Chase Elliott went on to win the 2020 championship after making the Championship 4 by winning at Martinsville.
Pick to Win
(Odds via Caesars Sportsbook)
Chase Elliott (+650): Considering that the issues seen in Martinsville's spring race haven't necessarily been exclusive to Martinsville, the safe bet is to assume that this Sunday's race will play out in a similar fashion until it proves otherwise. Going off of that, Hendrick Motorsports cars should be installed as the favorites for this race, with Chase Elliott -- who led the first 185 laps of the spring race and likely only lost it because he got beat on pit road at the race's midway point -- chief among them. Should Elliott prevail, it would follow a pattern the dominant driver of the 2022 season has followed throughout the playoffs of slow starts followed by strong finishes to each round.
