To say the NBA playoff races are wild right now would be an understatement. What follows is everything you need to know about where things stand entering Wednesday, March 21. This post will continue to update for the remainder of the season as we keep track right down to the wire.
We start with the wild Western Conference picture, but if you are more interested in the Eastern Conference, we've got that lower on this page.
NOTE: Our SportsLine model, developed by predictive data engineer Stephen Oh, simulates the entire season 10,000 times to produce the most unbiased and precise projections imaginable.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Playoff Locks
After ending Portland's 13-game win streak on Tuesday, Houston holds a four-game lead in the loss column over Golden State for the No. 1 seed both in the West and in the NBA overall, which would guarantee the Rockets home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. By virtue of their 2-1 record vs. Golden State this season, the Rockets own the tiebreaker, meaning their lead is actually five games in the loss column. Here are a few more notes about Houston entering Wednesday:
- Magic Number to Clinch No. 1 seed: Seven
- Remaining games: 11 (eight home, three road)
- Strength of remaining schedule: .459 (fifth-easiest in league)
- Next three games: vs. Detroit, vs. New Orleans, vs. Atlanta
- SportsLine projections: 97.9 percent to earn No. 1 seed
The Warriors say Stephen Curry is aiming to come back Friday vs. Atlanta, but they clearly don't care much, if at all, about the No. 1 seed and will likely be resting Curry, Durant, Thompson and Green whenever they can down the stretch. Portland's loss on Tuesday move the Warriors one game closer to sealing the No. 2 seed.
- Magic Number to Clinch No. 2 seed: Two
- Lead/Trail: Trail Houston by four (five with tiebreaker) for No. 1 seed
- Remaining games: 11 (six home, five road)
- Strength of remaining schedule: .465 (ninth-easiest in league)
- Next three Games: vs. Atlanta, vs. Utah, vs. Indiana
- SportsLine projections: 96 percent to earn No. 2 seed
Starting to look somewhat safe
It's amazing that the Blazers have won 13 of 14 and we still can't call them a complete lock to even make the playoffs, though we're getting closer to that day.
- Lead/Trail: Lead No. 4 Thunder by three games in loss column, lead No. 9 Denver by six games
- Magic Number to clinch playoff spot: Five
- Remaining games: 11 (four home, seven road)
- Strength of remaining schedule: .519 (12th-toughest in league)
- Next three games: vs. Boston, at OKC, at New Orleans
- SportsLine projection: 99.7 percent to make playoffs, 86.2 percent to get top-four seed
Entering the logjam
Just an absolutely devastating loss to the Celtics on Tuesday for the Thunder, who led Boston by two with less 10 seconds to play and Melo at the line. Now, rather than gaining a game on Portland for the No. 3 seed, they only lead No. 8 Utah by one game in the loss the column and have the toughest schedule in the league down the stretch.
- Current playoff status: Trail No. 3 Blazers by three in loss column
- The logjam: No. 4 OKC, No. 5 New Orleans and No. 6 San Antonio all have 30 losses
- Magic Number to clinch playoff spot: Six
- Games remaining: Nine (five home, four road)
- Strength of remaining schedule: .578 (toughest in league)
- Next three games: vs. Miami, vs. Portland, at San Antonio
- SportsLine projections: 98.7 percent to make playoffs, 42 percent to get top-four seed
Entering Wednesday, New Orleans is ahead of San Antonio for the No. 5 seed by virtue of holding the tiebreaker. Clearly this is far from over.
- Good news: Tied with OKC in loss column for No. 4
- Bad news: Only have one-game lead in loss column over No. 8 Utah
- Magic Number to clinch playoff spot: Eight
- Remaining games: 11 (six home, five road)
- Strength of remaining schedule: .546 (seventh-toughest in league)
- Next three games: vs. Indiana, vs. Lakers, at Houston
- SportsLine projection: 92.1 percent to make playoffs, 31 percent to get top-four seed
Huge win over the depleted Warriors on Monday. According to SportsLine projections, that one win pushed the Spurs up considerably in terms of their chances of making the playoffs.
- Lead/trail: Three games clear of No. 9 Denver, tied in loss column with No. 5 OKC and No. 5 San Antonio
- Magic number to clinch playoffs: Eight
- Strength of remaining schedule: .556 (fifth-toughest in league)
- Next three games: vs. Washington, vs. Utah, at Milwaukee
- SportsLine projection: 93.2 percent to make playoffs, 20 percent to get top-four seed
Wolves get off the ejection seat for now with a big win vs. the Clippers on Tuesday. The Jazz blowing their game to the Hawks and the Thunder blowing their game against the Celtics made Tuesday a triple-whammy winner for Minnesota.
- Good news: Only trail No. 4 OKC by one game in loss column and hold tiebreaker
- Bad news: Only two losses clear of No. 9 Denver and one loss clear of No. 8 Utah
- Magic Number to clinch playoff spot: Eight
- Remaining games: 10 (five home, five road)
- Strength of remaining schedule: .416 (2nd-easiest in league)
- Next three games: at Knicks, at Sixers, vs. Memphis
- SportsLine projection: 93.6 percent to make playoffs, 14.6 percent to get top-four seed
If OKC's loss to Boston was devastating, Utah's loss to the Hawks, at home, on Tuesday was even worse. In this crazy race, that one loss is the difference between being tied with New Orleans for the No. 5 seed and being on the brink of missing the playoffs, which the Jazz currently are -- hanging onto the last spot out West.
- Good news: Only trail No. 4 seed by one game in loss column
- Bad News: Only lead Denver by two games for final playoff spot
- Magic Number to clinch playoff spot: Nine
- Games remaining: 11 (five home, six road)
- Strength of remaining schedule: .540 (ninth-toughest in league)
- Next three games: at Dallas, at San Antonio, at Golden State
- SportsLine projection: 81 percent to make playoffs, 5.5 percent to get top-four seed
Just outside looking in
Needless to say, the Nuggets have to take care of business against the lowly Bulls on Wednesday. Right now they are technically ahead of the No. 10 Clippers, but SportsLine says they have a significantly worse chance of making the playoffs as they have the second-toughest schedule in the league coming down the stretch. Again, they have to beat bad teams like Chicago when they have the chance.
- Good news: Only trail No. 8 Utah by two games in loss column
- Bad news: That number is actually three as Utah currently holds tiebreaker via division record
- Remaining games: 11 (four home, seven road)
- Strength of remaining schedule: .565 (second-toughest in league)
- Next three games: at Chicago, at Washington, at Philadelphia
- SportsLine projection: 11.2 percent to make playoffs
Tough loss to Minnesota on Tuesday, but the Clippers are still very much in the hunt. A quick glance entering Wednesday:
- Good news: Only trail No. 8 Jazz by two games in loss column
- Bad news: That number is effectively three as Jazz own tiebreaker via either head-to-head or conference record
- Remaining games: 12 (six home, six road)
- Strength of remaining schedule: .545 (eighth-toughest in league)
- Next 3 games: at Milwaukee, at Indiana, at Toronto
- SportsLine projection: 30.2 percent chance to make playoffs
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Playoff Locks
Only team in the league with a top-five offense and defense. Already have a playoff spot clinched. Here's Toronto's current situation at a glance:
- Lead/Trail: Five-game lead on No. 2 Boston
- Magic Number to clinch No. 1 seed: Six
- Remaining games: 11 (six home, five road)
- Strength of remaining schedule: .524 (11th-toughest in league)
- Next three games: at Cleveland, vs. Brooklyn, vs. Clippers
- SportsLine projection: 99.8 percent to finish as No. 1 seed
Boston had a monster last-second win against OKC on Tuesday with Kyrie Irving, Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown all out. The Celtics have clinched a playoff spot and is pretty locked in to the 2-seed with a six-game lead in the loss column over No. 3 Cleveland. Entering Wednesday:
- Lead/Trail: Trail Raptors by five games for 1-seed
- Magic Number to clinch No. 2 seed: Five
- Remaining games: 10 (three home, seven road)
- Strength of remaining schedule: .483 (10th-easiest in league)
- Next three games: at Portland, at Sacramento, at Phoenix
- SportsLine projection: 0.2 percent chance to earn 1-seed
Fighting for top-four seed
Huge game vs. Toronto on Wednesday night, marking another chance for the Cavs to prove themselves against an elite team. Fact is, they have only beaten two playoff teams in more than a month.
- Lead/Trail: Only one game in loss column separates them from No. 6 seed Philly
- Magic Number to clinch playoff spot: Two
- Magic Number to clinch home-court in first round: 11
- Remaining games: 12 (seven home, five road)
- Strength of remaining schedule: .482 (ninth-easiest in league)
- Next three games: vs. Toronto, vs. Phoenix, at Brooklyn
- SportsLine Projections: 100 percent to make playoffs, 83.6 percent to get top-four seed
The Pacers have won seven of 10 and continue to be one of the most surprising stories in the league. Our SportsLine projections have them finishing as the No. 5 seed, falling one spot from where they sit entering Wednesday.
- Logjam: No. 4 Indiana, No. 5 Washington and No. 6 Philly all have 30 losses
- Magic Number to clinch playoff spot: Two
- Remaining games: 11 (four home, seven road)
- Strength of remaining schedule: .555 (sixth-toughest in league)
- Next three games: at New Orleans, vs. Clippers, vs. Miami
- SportsLine projection: 100 percent to make playoffs, 22 percent to get top-four seed
They've won four of six and John Wall is getting closer to returning. Monster wins over Boston and Indiana in their last two, and another big one looms Wednesday night vs. San Antonio.
- Logjam: No. 4 Indiana, No. 5 Washington and No. 6 Philly all have 30 losses
- Magic Number to clinch playoff spot: Three
- Remaining games: 12 (six home, six road)
- Strength of schedule: .494 (13th-easiest in league)
- Next three games: at San Antonio, vs. Denver, vs. Knicks
- SportsLine projection: 100 percent to make playoffs, 28.1 percent to get top-four seed
Good news, Sixers fans: Though you currently sit sixth in the East, our SportsLine projections have you finishing No. 4 with home-court in the first round, thanks to the softest schedule in the league down the stretch.
- Magic Number to clinch playoff spot: Four
- Remaining games: 13 (nine home, four road)
- Strength of remaining schedule: .404 (easiest in league)
- Next three games: vs. Memphis, at Orlando, vs. Minnesota
- SportsLine projection: 100 percent to make playoffs, 61.9 percent to get top-four seed
Bottom seeds but still dangerous
If the season were to end right now, Miami would get Boston in the first round. Given the Celtics' injury uncertainty, that feels like a series the Heat could at least threaten to win. I wouldn't bet on it happening, but I wouldn't bet the house against it either.
- Lead/trail: Six losses clear of No. 9 Pistons, three losses back of No. 6 seed
- Magic Number to clinch playoff spot: Five
- Remaining games: 11 (seven home, four road)
- Strength of remaining schedule: .462 (six-easiest in league)
- Next three games: vs. Knicks, at OKC, at Indiana
- SportsLine projection: 100 percent to make playoffs, 3.7 percent to get top-four seed
Big playoff implications on both sides when the Bucks take on the Clippers Wednesday night. Right now, our SportsLine projections have the Bucks remaining as the No. 8 seed.
- Magic Number to clinch playoff spot: Six
- Lead/trail: Six losses clear of No. 9 Pistons, three losses back of No. 6 seed
- Remaining games: 12 (six home, six road)
- Strength of remaining schedule: .494 (12th-easiest in league)
- Next three games: vs. Clippers, at Chicago, vs. San Antonio
- SportsLine projection: 97.7 percent to make playoffs
Not technically dead, but close
This is a courtesy inclusion. Detroit is not making the playoffs, but just for fun, let's check where the Pistons stand, if only to make Milwaukee and Miami fans feel better.
- Lead/Trail: Six games back of No. 8 seed
- Remaining games: 11 (six home, five road)
- Strength of remaining schedule: .463 (seventh-easiest in league)
- Next 3 games: at Houston, vs. Chicago, vs. Lakers
- SportsLine projection: 1.4 percent chance to make playoffs (So you're saying there's a chance!)