Japan has a Women's World Cup title and runner-up finish in its two appearances this decade. But it will need to pull an upset on Tuesday against a surging Netherlands club in order to advance past the round of 16 for the third straight time. The clubs meet in the 2019 Women's World Cup at Roazhon Park at 3 p.m. ET. Japan, ranked No. 7 in the world, withstood injuries and uneven play to advance in the 2019 Women's World Cup bracket with four points and a second place finish in Group D. It faces an eighth-ranked Netherlands club that captured the maximum nine points with three victories in Group E and is undefeated this year. The Dutch are -120 money-line favorites (risk $120 to win $100), while Japan is priced at +340 in the latest Netherlands vs. Japan odds. The over-under for total goals scored in this FIFA Women's World Cup 2019 game is 2.5. Before you lock in your Netherlands vs. Japan picks and 2019 Women's World Cup predictions, make sure you hear what European football expert David Sumpter has to say.
Sumpter is an applied mathematician and author of "Soccermatics," a book that explains how math works inside the sport. Along with other experienced analysts, Sumpter developed the powerful Soccerbot model.
The Soccerbot reads current odds and all team performance data, calculates key metrics and predicts upcoming matches. In the three seasons since its inception, Soccerbot is up an incredible 2,000 percent on Premier League picks. That's right -- 2,000 percent.
The model crushed its 2019 Women's World Cup group stage picks, returning a healthy profit to anyone following it. The model correctly predicted the stunning Japan-Argentina draw (+825) -- a more than 8-1 long shot -- and was all over USA beating Sweden, Germany outlasting Spain, England topping Scotland and Australia's dramatic comeback win over Brazil.
Now, the model has its sights set on Netherlands vs. Japan in the FIFA Women's World Cup 2019. We can tell you it's leaning Over, but its much stronger play is on the money line, saying one side has all the value. You can see that selection exclusively at SportsLine.
The Soccerbot knows that although the Netherlands lost its 2015 match against Japan, the Dutch have had recent success in this rivalry. They won a 2018 Algarve Cup game 6-2 in the most recent encounter between the clubs. Five different players scored in that game, while Lieke Martens found the net twice. The Dutch had a 10-5 edge on shots on target and 56-44 advantage in time of possession.
The Dutch also return a wealth of experience from their 2015 match with Japan, and a familiar core will be looking to redeem the defeat. They return nine players from the starting lineup that took the pitch in the round of 16 defeat. They beat New Zealand 1-0 in their 2019 World Cup opener and outlasted Cameroon 3-1. In their final match in group play, the Dutch doubled up Canada 2-1.
But just because the Dutch are surging doesn't mean they're the best bet on the Netherlands vs. Japan money line.
Japan has won five of the eight all-time meetings with Netherlands, including a 2-1 victory in the round of 16 in the last World Cup. Japan also has a strong recent history of World Cup success, with a championship (2011) and runner-up finish (2015) this decade.
Injuries were a major concern for Japan heading into the tournament, and reserves played significant minutes in the opening two matches. A draw and a victory with a makeshift lineup showed Japan has one of the deepest rosters in the 2019 Women's World Cup bracket.
So who wins Netherlands vs. Japan? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Netherlands vs. Japan money line you need to be all over Tuesday, all from an expert who created a model that's returned a 2,000 percent profit on bookmakers' closing odds.
