On the very first possession of last season's Final Four matchup between Iowa and South Carolina, the Hawkeyes set up in a triangle-and-two to pack the paint against the bigger, more athletic Gamecocks. They continued in that vein all night long, daring the Gamecocks to make open 3-pointers.
At one point, Caitlin Clark simply gave Raven Johnson a dismissive wave from 10 feet away instead of guarding her at the top of the key. Johnson refused to shoot and the possession eventually ended in a turnover. The Gamecocks finished the game 4-of-20 from behind the arc in a four-point loss.
When the two teams meet again in the national championship game Sunday in Cleveland, you can expect more of the same from the Hawkeyes. 6-foot-2 Hannah Stuelke is the lone starter over six feet, and seldom-used Addison O'Grady (6-foot-4) is the only taller option that sees any minutes. They simply don't have the size to guard Kamilla Cardoso one-on-one and will therefore need to play extensive stretches of zone.
The onus will again be on the Gamecocks to make them pay, and Johnson and Co. have been preparing all year for this scenario.
"I think last year was the best thing that ever happened to me," Johnson said during her press conference Saturday. "A lot of people probably couldn't handle what happened to me. I think it made me better, it got me in the gym to work on my weakness, which is 3-point shooting. I think I'm showing that I can shoot the ball."
After shooting 24.1% from downtown last season, Johnson improved to 36.8% in this campaign, and the Gamecocks followed suit. Here's a look at their overall per-game 3-point shooting splits over the past two seasons.
| Year | 3PM | 3PA | 3P% |
|---|---|---|---|
2022-23 (Rank) | 4.4 (305th) | 14.2 (332nd) | 31.0 (173rd) |
2023-24 (Rank) | 6.6 (120th) | 16.8 (260th) | 39.5 (3rd) |
While the Gamecocks still prefer to operate inside-out, they are much more prepared to make you pay if you leave them open this season. Nothing makes that more clear than their splits on unguarded 3-point attempts. After shooting 32.8% on such looks last season, they made 41.1% of them this time around.
Internal improvement from the likes of Johnson and Bree Hall has helped, but the Gamecocks' new recruits have made the biggest impact. Transfer Te-Hina Paopao leads the team at 46.2% on 5.1 attempts per game, and freshman Tessa Johnson (42.7%) and MiLaysia Fulwiley (34.3%) have added much-needed shooting depth. Of the Gamecocks' top-eight rotation players, five of them take at least two 3s per game, and Fulwiley's 34.3% mark is the worst of that group.
We saw a perfect example of the Gamecocks' enhanced offense Friday during the Final Four, when NC State switched to a zone late in the third quarter in a desperate attempt to stem a huge run. The Gamecocks promptly knocked down a few 3s to increase their lead and effectively end the game.
Like any team, the Gamecocks can go cold, as we saw in the Elite Eight when they shot 4-of-20 from the outside against Oregon State. In general, though, they have handled the pressure of the tournament well and are 34-of-79 (43.0%) from 3 in the other four games.
They'll need to keep that up Sunday because the zone defense will be coming from Iowa. The Hawkeyes have spent 38.3% of their defensive possessions in zone during the tournament, and that number could be even higher in the national championship game. While the Hawkeyes will surely have more respect for the Gamecocks' shooters this time, they are going to surrender some 3s to help on Cardoso and protect the paint.
If the Gamecocks can make them pay, there's a good chance they'll win the third national title in school history and second in three years. If not, Clark and Co. will have a chance to pull off another upset and lift the trophy for the first time.
