"Who is the No. 1 pick?"
In the wake of Kevin Durant's shocking decision to join the Warriors, this has been the biggest question in the Fantasy community. Durant heading to Golden State makes the Warriors obvious favorites for the title, but it also opens the competition for the No. 1 pick in Fantasy wide.
Stephen Curry would have been the obvious pick at the top of drafts this fall without Durant, and Durant would have been a strong contender for the No. 1 spot if Curry was expected to take a step back otherwise. However, with Durant joining the team, the Warriors are in for a real adjustment period, if only because there is only one ball to go around. The Warriors are the best passing team in the NBA, so they shouldn't have much trouble making the piece fit seamlessly, but their players are going to have to be happy with smaller roles.
It's simple math: Durant, Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green alone combined to post a 108.0 percent usage rate last season. Yes, above 100 percent. Without including Zaza Pachulia. Even with staggered minutes, we're looking at pretty drastic reductions in shots and opportunities for pretty much everyone, which makes the case for Curry and Durant at the top of the draft a lot harder to make.
So, who should be the No. 1 pick this fall? Here are Sportsline.com's projections for the top-eight in Fantasy points per game next season, with Durant falling to fifth and Curry to eighth:
| PLAYER | FanPTS | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK |
| Russell Westbrook | 50.9 | 24.9 | 8.1 | 10 | 1.8 | 0.2 |
| LeBron James | 49 | 26.3 | 8.3 | 7.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| DeMarcus Cousins | 45.7 | 24.8 | 12.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| James Harden | 44.6 | 25.3 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| Kevin Durant | 43.2 | 26.3 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1 | 1.3 |
| Chris Paul | 42.8 | 18.8 | 4.6 | 9.5 | 2.1 | 0.2 |
| John Wall | 42.2 | 18.4 | 4.8 | 10.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| Stephen Curry | 40.9 | 24.7 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.3 |
All things considered, that wouldn't be a bad dropoff, especially for Durant, who should see a nice gain in pace with the move from Oklahoma City to Golden State. Still, even those projections might be a bit too optimistic, because the Warriors have been very good about preserving minutes over the last few years, and might not need to play their stars late in games.
As far as I can tell, Durant and Curry could both still be in the discussion for the No. 1 pick, especially in Rotisserie scoring, where their efficiency and 3-point shooting could make up for any drop in usage. However, they have both come considerably back to the pack, and there isn't any one obvious answer for who should go No. 1 overall.
In fact, far from being the best spot in the draft, the No. 1 pick may just cause more headaches for Fantasy players than it is worth come the fall. I think there are six players who could have a legitimate claim to be worth the pick, though all six come with pretty significant downside as well. Here is the case for and against Westbrook, James, Harden, Durant, Curry and Anthony Davis.
The case for Westbrook: The case for Westbrook comes down to one word: volume. Westbrook has played 48 games without Durant, with these results: 31.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, 9.5 assists, 2.2 steals per game. He won't hit those numbers with the retooled Thunder, who acquired Victor Oladipo this offseason and still have Enes Kanter, Steven Adams and even young guys like Mitch McGary and Domantas Sabonis who could pick up some of the slack on offense. However, Westbrook is going to get all he can handle, and might just challenge for his second scoring title, while averaging close to a double-double.
The case against Westbrook: As with the case for him, the case against Westbrook comes down to one word as well: efficiency. Westbrook shot 41.3 percent from the field in those 48 games without Durant, and turned the ball over 5.4 times, pretty dreadful numbers. He isn't much of a 3-point shooter either. That isn't much of an issue in H2H leagues, where Westbrook's volume alone should make him the No. 1 pick, but in Rotisserie formats, you are looking at a situation where he helps a ton in six categories, and hurts you in three, which might be too much to overcome. Oh, and Westbrook has suffered four major injuries in the past three seasons, including three knee surgeries.
The case for Curry: Well, he just led the NBA in scoring and set the NBA record for 3-pointers, breaking his own mark by 116. Curry is such an outrageously efficient scoring machine, he can rank among the league leaders in scoring even if his shots fall from 20 to 15 or 16 per game. He is also a strong play-maker and defender, who seems like a good bet to shoot 50-40-90 again this season.
The case against Curry: As already stated, the Warriors' stars are going to need to sacrifice numbers to make this work, and that isn't good for Fantasy. If Curry falls back to his 2014-15 levels, he still has a strong case to make for No.1 overall, but there's a chance he falls even farther than that with the addition of Durant. Still, in Rotisserie his combination of unprecedented 3-point shooting, overall efficiency and play-making should make Curry a reasonable choice for No. 1 overall; it's a very different story in H2H.
The case for James: With Durant in Golden State, Sportsline actually projects James to possibly win his first scoring title since 2007-08. Toss in his typically terrific all-around production -- 50.5 percent from the field, 6.8 rebounds, 7.1 assists, 2.2 combined blocks and steals per game since getting to Cleveland -- and James' case is a pretty easy one to make. No need to belabor the point.
The case against James: James turns 32 midway through the season, and we're just a year removed from him taking two weeks off midseason to rest his body. He made it through last year without any such sabbaticals, but coming off a championship, he might be more willing to step off the pedal during the regular season. James could also opt to take more of a backseat on his own team, handing more of the offense to Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. That seems unlikely, but both would be capable of more, and it's a possibility as we get further into James' career.
The case for Harden: Like Westbrook, but without the efficiency concerns. Harden's field goal percentage is never great, but he is an elite volume 3-point shooter and makes a huge impact on your free-throw percentage. And he's coming off a 29.0 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 7.5 APG season and has Mike D'Antoni and a bunch of shooters around him to make life even easier. Harden might be my personal choice for the top spot, especially after he has missed just one game the past two seasons.
The case against Harden: It's hard to make one, though he does turn the ball over a ton and has logged huge minutes over the last four seasons, making him a potential injury risk. Still, there is less downside with Harden than potentially anyone else, and the upside isn't significantly lower.
The case for Davis: At just 23, Davis' game should still be growing. He stalled out a bit last year, but it says a lot about how high our expectations are that 24.3-10.3-1.9-1.3-2.0 on 49.3 percent shooting with 35 3-pointers represents a disappointment. The Pelicans swapped out some higher usage offensive players for more defensive-minded players in free agency, which could lead to even more opportunities for Davis, who also probably still has a leap to make as a passer. If he makes the jump to four assists per game and continues to develop his 3-pointer, Davis could be a true nine-category contributor.
The case against Davis: Davis legitimately took a step back last season, after improving in each of his first three years, and that is a concern. But the bigger concern is that Davis has never played more than 68 games in a season, and missed a career-high 21 last year. If you could guarantee me 75 games of Davis, I might take him at No. 1 overall without question, but the constant injuries have really put a damper on his overall outlook.
The case for Durant: In Golden State's ridiculous offense, no shooting efficiency numbers are off the table for Durant. He might shoot 55 percent from the field, 45 percent on 3-pointers and 90 percent on free throws. He might not take a shot with a defender within 10 feet of him all season. He might average a point per minute with the efficiency we could see from this offense. Even if the volume isn't quite where you might want it to be, Durant's ability to make shots might drown everything out.
The case against Durant: Durant averaged 35.8 minutes per game and a 30.6 usage rate last season, and both of those numbers are likely to go down. He also probably won't continue averaging close to 5.0 assists per game in a lesser role, though that one seems less certain -- everyone can get assists in Golden State's offense because of how it spreads the ball around. Still, the lower minutes and usage will probably keep Durant out of the No. 1 spot. He isn't a bad consolation prize at No. 5, though.
