NFL Week 14 picks: Panthers, Cardinals pull upsets, more of Will Brinson's Best Bets

Mercifully, the worm is starting to turn a little bit, with your man putting together a nice little three-week stretch here, going 12-3 in my best bets. This is no time to rest, however, because a decent close to the season can equate to an above .500 year on these things. That's not something I'm going to go around bragging about over the holidays, but it might mean not hanging my head in shame when relatives start bringing up my picks on their smartphones.

This week feels weird, though. The Favorites have been on a ROLL for the past month and we keep hearing about Vegas taking a bath on Sundays. That is not a thing that happens with regularity. You may have seen the giant buildings, the free drinks and the general excessiveness. It isn't all built on some idiot going into the casino and betting on both red and black on the roulette wheel (this is my wife's favorite thing to do, it's very annoying).

Anyway, there are a lot of home dogs this week. The Falcons were one on Thursday night for much of the week before closing as a 2.5-point favorite. That line swung all over the place, but you could have bought them as a dog; they were a pick in the SuperContest. The Panthers have eight wins and are an underdog at home. The Titans and Jets are road favorites. Even the Browns are underdogs at home. Oh wait.

But you get the point. 3-2 last week on these best bets after the Steelers fell through is a dagger, but it's three straight weeks of a winning record. That's something to build on. Overall, had a losing record against the spread last week but this feels like a topsy-turvy weekend that could shake some stuff up in a big way. Check out all of our 2017 NFL expert picks against the spread here. Yell at me about my terrible picks on Twitter @WillBrinson. And subscribe to the Pick Six Podcast on iTunes to get all the best bets (a.k.a. FADES) from me, Pete Prisco and Nick Kostos plus Jason La Canfora's Scandinavian Death Metal Lock of the Week (now a scorching 5-1 ATS).

Falcons PK vs. Saints

Boom! Lock it up, baby. This isn't hindsight, by the by. If I'm putting in my picks early for the SuperContest, I'll note so on Twitter. Hopefully you're following for that free money.

Will have best bets column up soon (12-3 last 3 weeks). But already put in ATL (pick) as a @FootballContest pick with #TeamOS. Like them at -1, -2.5 too.
— Will Brinson (@WillBrinson) December 7, 2017

Anyway, that's a tidy little 1-0 start to the week in a game I had no real business covering; the Falcons won by three but they never felt like they should have won. The Saints were up for much of the second half, moved the ball pretty effectively and lost on a couple of boneheaded mistakes late. Whatever, a win is a win at this point of the proceedings.

I'm trying to walk down Pete Prisco and Nick Kostos in our Pick Six Podcast challenge as a trio of SuperContest contestants battling it out as part of Team Oddsshark.com. I'm within one point of those goofballs now. Subscribe to the pod here to keep up with the weekly taunting.

Panthers +2.5 vs. Vikings

Whew. Do not love this pick. The Vikings are, frankly, a better team and they can really exploit the Panthers' biggest weakness: protecting Cam Newton. Everson Griffen and Danielle Hunter are terrors off the edge and Carolina's tackles just don't hold up well at all. If the Panthers can devise some kind of plan to get the ball out quickly and keep the pass rushers at bay (hello, Christian McCaffrey), I'd feel more comfortable. Xavier Rhodes locked down Julio Jones; Devin Funchess should have no problem dealing with him. The reason I like the Panthers, though, is the defense. This is a unit that was embarrassed by the Saints last week in a massive NFC South showdown. The NFC wild card race is heating up with the Falcons winning. Carolina is desperate and angry, and they can take advantage of an offense that has been playing above its head lately. Case Keenum is due for a dropoff game and everyone has finally stopped waiting for it, but it's coming this week.

Honestly, I expect some sort of 14-9 score here. The Panthers need that to win: history is not kind against Mike Zimmer, who beat them 31-13 in 2014 (the Panthers fell to 3-8-1 and would rip off four straight wins to seal the division after that loss) and beat them 22-10 early in Week 3 last year. The Panthers actually led 10-8 at half last year before a punt return flipped things. Those mistakes doomed them in New Orleans last week. They need to clean them up to win and firm up their playoff standing.

Cardinals +3 vs. Titans

Neither of these teams is good and one of them has Blaine Gabbert. We're backing that team! Why not -- the Titans are the No. 3 seed in the AFC and have eight wins but, again, they're not good. They rank 16th in offensive DVOA at Football Outsiders, a ranking buoyed by their No. 4-ranked rush unit. Unfortunately for the Titans, the Cardinals rank No. 4 in rush DEFENSE at FO. The Cardinals are a bottom-tier team on offense, but the Titans are a bottom-tier team on defense. This is simply not a good matchup for the Titans to reasonably exploit any of their strengths. The Cardinals aren't going to blow out the Titans or anything, but this is an Arizona team that already took care of business against the Jaguars at home. It's a similar situation, except the Titans defense is much worse and the running game a little bit better. This is a matchup the Cardinals can win and at the very least keep close.

Giants +4.5 vs. Cowboys

ELI MANNING REVENGE GAME! Consider me bought in on this one, and if you want to buy in you better do so quickly, as the line is dropping with reasonable speed. It's at Giants +3.5 in most spots now, thanks to the changeover in New York. Ben McAdoo was fired and will be replaced by Steve Spagnuolo. Ordinarily that's a "meh" switch in my eyes, considering how the Giants defense has performed, but getting McAdoo out of the building will inspire the Giants to play with some hustle for the first time in about a month. More importantly, the Giants will want to step up and play well for their boy Eli, who will be forced to start a new consecutive-starts streak this week. Every streak starts at 1. The Giants aren't playing for much here, but they can "win one for Eli" and simultaneously ruin the Cowboys' playoff hopes at the same time. That warrants enough for me to like them as a home dog in this situation.

Chargers -6 vs. Redskins

The Chargers burnt me last week when I rode them as a two-touchdown favorite against the Browns. That was, rather admittedly, greedy. Any NFL team covering two touchdowns is tough, because a game can be 10 points in the fourth quarter and if the team that's winning gets the ball back they're not going to put their foot on the gas. This is still a large number, but a much more manageable one. The line moving away from the Chargers this week was surprising (as it was last week), but it might end up being nice value when all is said and done. Trent Williams was a DNP for the second straight day on Thursday -- if he can't go it's a massive problem for the Redskins, who struggled to protect Kirk Cousins with him out. Getting Morgan Moses (limited in practice Thursday) back would be a huge plus, but if the Redskins are short on bodies at the tackle position, Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram are going to have a field day. Washington has been an above average team defensively most of the year but they are also dealing with plenty of injuries. Keenan Allen looks to extend a historic streak (three straight games of 10 catches, 100 yards and a TD, the only NFL player ever to do so) but Philip Rivers will look elsewhere if Josh Norman is on his game. The Chargers smell a chance in the AFC West and will take advantage of it here.