The first day of college basketball's week-long early signing period began on Wednesday for the 2023 class, setting up what could trigger a flurry of decisions whose impact cascades down and affects teams throughout the sport as they cobble together what their 2023 rosters will look like.
Throughout the next week, we are expecting action to gradually crescendo with bigger and bigger names potentially picking their programs of the future as the early period draws to a close. That starts in earnest Wednesday with four-star wing Cody Williams picking between LSU, USC, Colorado, Santa Clara and Loyola Marymount. It should pick up throughout the week with four-star guard Ty-Laur Johnson, five-star big Baye Fall and top-five prospect Isaiah Collier among the big names likely to come off the board.
There's also the really big fish: What happens, if anything, in the recruitment of No. 2 overall prospect DJ Wagner? Will we see any developments in Bronny James' recruitment? And will No. 1 recruit Isaiah Collier help tip the scales for USC in its chase for a second consecutive top-10 class?
There's a lot to follow, so below are the top five storylines to watch with the early period officially starting.
1. Can Louisville overtake Kentucky for DJ Wagner?
It has always been seen as a two-horse race between the premier Kentucky schools -- Louisville and Kentucky -- for the services of five-star recruit DJ Wagner. But, in recent months, those in the industry believe the Wildcats, not the Cardinals, have taken the lead in his recruitment. That was, however, before the IARP announced Louisville's ongoing investigation into potential recruiting improprieties resulted in no meaningful sanctions. Will that change where Wagner lands? Does it matter? Do we get unexpected clarity this week?
Louisville has ground to make up here, but it doesn't feel insurmountable. Yes, Dajuan, DJ's dad, played for Calipari while at Memphis. That's an established relationship that'll be hard to beat. But Milt Wagner, DJ's grandfather, starred for the Cardinals back in the 1980s. He's now on staff under coach Kenny Payne at Louisville as its Director of Player Development and Alumni Relations.
Louisville is all-in on Wagner, a potential game-changing addition, but it may be positioned for a backup plan should he go with the 'Cats. Five-star combo guard AJ Johnson has drawn recent interest from the Cardinals program after an offer earlier this year which included an official visit to the school late last month. Not getting Wagner would be a blow for the Cards, but they may be in a spot to still score a win of the five-star variety if Kentucky, viewed as the favorite right now, can close the deal.
2. What's next for Bronny James?
We've been tracking on and off-court developments for Bronny James in our tracker here, but as you can see, most of the latest news is surrounding NIL deals he has signed. The interest in him from college programs has steadily ramped up in recent months, though, as more and more people believe he will play in college and not opt to turn pro directly out of high school. His latest visit was to Ohio State back in September, and the latest known offers are from Memphis and USC. We're not expecting any signing this week, but he's one of the biggest celebrities among players in this class. Should any news drop, it is likely to be meaningful.
3. Will Duke hang on to No. 1 class?
This one may come down to whether Kentucky can reel in Wagner. Duke has the No. 1 class right now with 70.58 total points at 247Sports, just ahead of Kentucky, which has 69.94 points. A commitment to Kentucky from Wagner would push the Wildcats to the top of the rankings, and Duke may not have a counter; it already has five commitments in the cycle and may be done.
Kentucky has landed just one No. 1 class since its 2015 class -- which came in 2020 -- during which Duke has emerged as the constant threat on that front. A win to secure Wagner over Louisville would be significant for Kentucky not just to edge a rival in a recruiting battle but also (likely) to topple Duke as the No. 1 team in the rankings.
4. USC watch for five-star Isaiah Collier
Collier took over as the new No. 1 in 247Sports' latest recruiting rankings in September over Wagner. The five-star point guard has been one of the hottest recruiting targets in recent months with Michigan, UCLA and USC all in the mix. The Trojans appear to be the favorite here, but my confidence level in that projection is about 51%. His decision on Nov. 16 will be a massive one to close out the early period.
5. Baye Fall eyeing commitment
The tallest uncommitted prospect in the 2023 class, Fall is expected to announce his long-anticipated decision on Nov. 15 as he chooses between Arkansas, Rutgers, Auburn and Seton Hall. Fall has made official visits to each of his four finalists, but Arkansas is the only of the four to have gotten multiple visits from him this year. Eric Musselman and the Razorbacks already have one five-star pledge in the 2023 cycle in point guard Layden Blocker, so the addition of Fall would signify another major recruiting win for one of college basketball's hottest programs.
