The UCF Knights and the SMU Mustangs will face off in an American Athletic clash at noon ET on Saturday at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. SMU QB Tanner Mordecai is the latest passer to thrive in a Sonny Dykes offense, and has produced the seventh-most passing yards per game in the nation. Mikey Keene has put up big numbers for UCF, who has been without starting QB Dillon Gabriel since September with a broken collar bone.
The Mustangs are favored by seven points in the latest SMU vs. UCF odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over-under is set at 60.5. Before entering any UCF vs. SMU picks, you need to see the college football predictions and betting advice from the model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Week 11 of the 2021 season on a 31-20 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has broken down SMU vs. UCF from every angle and locked in its picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college football odds and betting lines for SMU vs. UCF:
- SMU vs. UCF spread: SMU -7.5
- SMU vs. UCF over-under: 60 points
- SMU vs. UCF money line: SMU -280, UCF +230
What you need to know about UCF
Even if it wasn't a dominant performance, UCF beat the Tulane Green Wave 14-10 on Saturday. No one had a standout game offensively for UCF, but they got scores from WR Ryan O'Keefe and WR Brandon Johnson. UCF did have a strong offensive showing two games before that against Temple, when the Knights scored 49 points and racked up 431 yards of offense.
The bigger story as of late for UCF has been the defense. Over the last three games, the Knights have only given up 24 total points, and they held Tulane to just 279 yards in last week's win. Running the ball wasn't a significant part of the game plan last week, but UCF has had a strong rushing attack, led by Isaiah Bowser, who has rushed for 549 yards and seven touchdowns in 2021. Johnny Richardson has had a lighter workload over the last three games, but has been strong this season, and has a 5.8 yards per carry average with 425 rushing yards in 2021.
What you need to know about SMU
SMU scored first, but lost its second consecutive game last weekend to Memphis, when the Mustangs fell in a 28-25 heartbreaker. Mordecai threw a couple of touchdown passes and finished with 262 yards, but he also threw an interception and fumbled the ball once. The loss dropped SMU out of the AP Top 25, where it had been since the first week of October.
Both teams come in with distinct defensive weaknesses, but SMU has one of the nation's worst passing defenses. The Mustangs have allowed more that 285 yards per game through the air, and have only brought down opposing passers 19 times this season. UCF gives up more than four yards per carry and 155 yards per game on the ground, so the one-two punch of Tre Siggers and Ulysses Bentley should find some running room against the Knights. The pair has combined for 991 yards and seven touchdowns this season.
How to make SMU vs. UCF picks
The model has simulated SMU vs. UCF 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning over on the point total, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in nearly 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the model's UCF vs. SMU pick at SportsLine.
So who wins SMU vs. UCF? And which side of the spread hits in nearly 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college football picks, and find out.
