After Texas required a comeback in overtime last week to put away Texas Tech, the No. 9 Longhorns return home to face TCU on Saturday. As last week showed, in this wild season no team -- especially no team in the Big 12 -- appears to be safe.
Led by quarterback Sam Ehlinger, UT is looking to return to the Big 12 Championship Game after a one-year absence. Coming up in Week 5 is TCU, a program that has gotten the better of Texas since the Horned Frogs joined the Big 12 nearly a decade ago. TCU owns a 6-2 lead in the series since 2012, and coach Gary Patterson usually has an answer for the Horns.
This time, Texas is a decent-sized, double-digit favorite. Based on the early returns from both sides, both offenses have shown the ability to move the ball. That could mean a good ol' fashioned Big 12 shootout, similar to the ones both teams played in during Week 4 against Iowa State and Texas Tech, respectively. The Frogs have some future NFL players at safety with Trevon Moehrig and Ar'Darius Washington, but Ehlinger has been an assassin through the air in Texas' two games. This is a fun matchup between a Big 12 heavyweight and a conference dark horse.
Here's what to watch as TCU and Texas do battle in Austin, Texas, this weekend.
Storylines
Texas: We know the Horns can score. They've done it in bunches with an average of 61 points per game so far. The question is whether they have the defense to create separation between themselves and the Frogs. Coach Tom Herman said his defensive players were embarrassed after allowing 56 points and 447 yards to the Red Raiders in Week 4. It's hard to disagree. TCU has a solid passing game as well. After quarterback Max Duggan came off the bench in the second half, TCU's offense came alive with 241 yards and three touchdowns through the air.
TCU: There's no doubt Duggan moved the ball better than starter Matthew Downing. Dugga, who started 10 games in 2019, showed some improvement passing the ball, but protection is going to be key. The Frogs allowed seven sacks against Iowa State, and the offense was particularly sluggish early. Playing on the road as an underdog, it's going to be paramount that TCU does better protecting its quarterback. Too many negative plays, and Texas is going to have a major advantage.
Viewing information
Date: Saturday, Oct. 3 | Time: Noon ET
Location: DKR Texas Memorial Stadium -- Austin, Texas
TV: Fox | Live stream: fuboTV (Try for free)
Game prediction, picks
Given Texas' struggles against the pass, the Frogs could hold their own. They had nice ball distribution against Iowa State with nine guys catching at least two passes. However, I'm worried about their pass protection. Additionally, Ehlinger has to be a playmaker and he showed he can lead a comeback if he's called upon. I think he makes enough plays for Texas to get the home W, but I'm not loving the defense to make the necessary stops to win by two full touchdowns. Pick: TCU +13
Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 5, and which SEC team will pull off a shocking upset? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread -- all from a proven computer model that has returned over $4,000 in profit over the past four-plus seasons -- and find out.
