An incredible PGA Tour season reaches its conclusion this weekend as the 2023 FedEx Cup Playoffs wrap at East Lake Golf Club with a simply massive $18 million winner's share on the line. Whomever finishes atop the leaderboard at the 2023 Tour Championship will not only bring home that massive sum, they will stand as one of the most accomplished golfers of the year.
Perhaps no two players have more on the line than Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. While Scheffler is without a major championship in 2023, his strokes-gained stats are off the charts -- as are his near-record winnings on Tour. McIlroy, meanwhile, is seeking to become the first golfer to win back-to-back FedEx Cups while extending his all-time lead with a fourth such trophy. (Only one other golfer, Tiger Woods, has as many as two.)
Which of the two feats would be more impressive? Our CBS Sports experts debate just that below.
McIlroy (-7), third in the FedEx Cup standings, enters Thursday three strokes back of Scheffler (-10), who begins the Tour Championship with a two-stroke lead over Viktor Hovland (-2). Jon Rahm (-6) and Lucas Glover (-5) round out the top five. The rest of the top 10 sit six back of Scheffler, while those ranked 11th through 15th have seven strokes to pick up over the final 72 holes of the season.
The staggered leaderboard provides benefit to those golfers who put together sterling seasons to this point, but the advantages are not so significant that those lower on the leaderboard cannot make a run. As such, it's possible that the best performer at the Tour Championship is not atop the leaderboard once play concludes Sunday, but with so much money on the line -- one third of the 30 golfers playing will bring home $1 million or more this weekend -- every spot in the standings matters.
So, what is going to happen at East Lake? Let's take a look at a full set of predictions and picks from our CBS Sports experts as we attempt to project who will win -- and what will happen -- at the final PGA Tour event of the season.
2023 Tour Championship expert picks, predictions
Kyle Porter, senior golf writer
Winner -- Rory McIlroy (17/5): McIlroy obviously thrives at this golf course. Of those who have played at least 20 rounds at East Lake, only Xander Schauffele and Tiger Woods have been better. Throw in the fact that he's starting at 7 under -- three back of Scheffler -- when he's already won the event starting at 5 under (2019) and 4 under (2022) plus the fact that he's playing "the best I've played in a long time [from tee to green]" (his own words), and it would be difficult to pick anybody else.
Sleeper -- Xander Schauffele (30-1): When you start seven shots back of Scheffler, that's always going to be a problem. However, Schauffele is absolutely outrageous at this golf course, finishing in the top seven in each of his six appearances at the Tour Championship. He's not playing his best golf of the year, so I'm mostly banking on a horse for this course in this situation. His deficit will probably be too great to overcome, but he's definitely the sleeper to watch from the group at 3 under.
Top 10 entering who will not win -- Wyndham Clark: He starts at T6 because of his Wells Fargo Championship and U.S. Open victories, but he hasn't finished better than T25 at a full-field event since winning at Los Angeles Country Club in June. He simply lacks the requisite momentum needed for somebody who has never been in this spot before in his career.
Biggest jump up leaderboard -- Russell Henley: He is playing some outrageously good golf and has something to play for outside a ton of money. If Henley wins the Tour Championship this weekend given how well he's been playing of late, there's a real chance he could swipe the last spot on the U.S. Ryder Cup team when the captain's picks are made Monday by Zach Johnson.
Biggest fall down leaderboard -- Lucas Glover: It's been a good run for Glover, but there's the possibility that last week (great ball-striking, bad putting) was more of a return to the middle for him -- and that he falls well out of the fifth-place spot he's in to start. I hope that's not the case because his story is both inspirational and aspirational, but he's the one guy sitting near the top that you could see dropping quite a bit (bonus points here for Jon Rahm, who has not played well in the first two events).
Bigger achievement with a win -- Scheffler or McIlroy? This is a tough one. Scheffler's season has been truly preposterous. He is hitting the ball at a Tiger-like level (only three golfers are gaining at least 8.0 strokes per event from tee to green, and he's over 12). However, we've seen players win three events or more in a season, which is where Scheffler would be at if he wins the Tour Championship. What we have not seen is somebody sustain the level of success McIlroy has sustained in the FedEx Cup era. Most PGA Tour golfers don't even have the opportunity to win four FedEx Cups, much less the ability to do so. To me, that would be a bigger and more meaningful overall achievement even if Scheffler's is more impressive in the short term.
Patrick McDonald, golf writer
Winner -- Scottie Scheffler (3/2): He's been the best player all year, and he will learn from last year's blunder. Scheffler opened 65-66-66 before slipping Sunday and relinquishing the FedEx Cup. I am willing to suggest lightning won't strike twice. The world No. 1 has made some strides with the putter, and if that club cooperates even just a bit, he will run away with the title given his starting position at 10 under.
Sleeper -- Russell Henley (75-1): Any time you get Henley on a golf course, that requires accurate driving and pinpoint iron play, he is a good option. The former Georgia star is comfortable on these grass types and is probably the most underrated player on the PGA Tour. Henley ranks sixth in total strokes gained over the last six months and will start from seven back.
Top 10 entering who will not win -- Matt Fitzpatrick: It was a lot of smoke and mirrors for the Englishman at the BMW Championship with his runner-up finish. Fitzpatrick entered the week 40th in the standings and jumped all the way to 10th with the result camouflaging a less-than-stellar season in the process.
Biggest jump up leaderboard -- Tommy Fleetwood: He won't have to contend with the Sunday scaries as it is likely he won't find himself in the mix to raise the FedEx Cup, but I still think Fleetwood is in store for another solid week. He has contended in seemingly every tournament since his playoff loss at the Canadian Open and arrives top five in total strokes gained over the last three months.
Biggest fall down leaderboard -- Jon Rahm: The Spaniard starts in fourth at 6 under after entering the postseason in pole position meaning there is plenty of room to fall. Rahm's misses off the tee have been wider than normal this summer and have handcuffed him approaching the green. He has claimed a pair of finishes outside the top 30 in his first two playoff events, and East Lake will provide no relief for his struggles.
Bigger achievement with a win -- Scheffler or McIlroy? It has to be Rory. I understand Scheffler's season is historic from a tee-to-green perspective, but winning the season-long race on four separate occasions is different. It would be added validation that McIlroy is one of the all-time greats and another reason to celebrate his sustained quality across a decade.
Who will win the Tour Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard and best bets, all from the model that's nailed 10 golf majors and is up more than $9,000 since June 2020.
Dean Straka, golf writer
Winner -- Scottie Scheffler (3/2): Hovland is a trendy pick after that masterful final round in his victory at the BMW Championship, but I can't will myself to pick against Scheffler when he's teeing off with a head start on the field (even with Hovland starting just two strokes back). Scheffler's runner-up finish at Olympia Fields alleviated some concerns from an uncharacteristic T31 finish the week prior at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Combine his advantageous starting position with eight top-five finishes in his last 10 starts, and it might be the perfect formula for the season to end with Scheffler coming out on top at East Lake. It would be sweet redemption, too, at an event that got away from him in the final round last year.
Sleeper -- Xander Schauffele (30-1): I genuinely thought this might be the year Schauffele finally prevailed in a major championship. That didn't happen, but could he go out with a bang at East Lake? Schauffele has finished in the top five in each of the past four years at the Tour Championship, including runner-up finishes in 2019 and 2020. At the BMW Championship, Schauffele scored in the 60s in each of the final three rounds en route to a T8 finish, his best since a runner-up finish in May at the Wells Fargo Championship. Schauffele will have his work cut out for him this week as he prepares to tee off seven strokes back from Scheffler, but he's one to watch closely.
Top 10 entering who will not win -- Brian Harman: I don't want to discredit the recent play Harman has displayed, which includes a win at the Open Championship, and more recently, a T5 finish at the BMW Championship. But it's also hard for me to envision him taking down some of the bigger stars at East Lake this week when he's already starting six strokes back of the world's top-ranked golfer. He finished T24 and T21 in his two previous Tour Championship starts in 2017 and 2022, respectively.
Biggest jump up the leaderboard -- Rory McIlroy: Rory has won here three times, and I fully expect him to be in the mix again as he seeks a second consecutive FedEx Cup title. As I made it clear earlier, I still think Scheffler does enough to go home the winner, but I can absolutely see McIlroy posting the lower gross score by a stroke or two to make for a thrilling finish on Sunday.
Biggest fall down the leaderboard -- Nick Taylor: The biggest fall might not even be that bad of a showing since all 30 entrants at the Tour Championship earned their way here, but Taylor hasn't exactly been that reliable since his RBC Canadian Open victory in June. In six starts since, he's missed the cut three times, and his 10-over par showing at the BMW Championship didn't exactly inspire confidence. That Taylor is making his Tour Championship debut also brings some unknowns of how he'll fare.
Bigger achievement with a win -- Scheffler or McIlroy? Scheffler's play has been mesmerizing this season, and he's reaped the rewards of that financially. But between him and McIlroy, a victory for the latter would speak louder to me. Not only would it be McIlroy's second straight FedEx Cup title via a come-from-behind effort at the Tour Championship, but it would come after his game went through a rather tumultuous stretch -- at least by McIlroy's standards -- this spring. He's since returned to form, and a triumph at East Lake would be a fitting way to cap off what would be 10 consecutive top-10 finishes to end the season.
Adam Silverstein, director of editorial
Winner -- Rory McIlroy (17/5): If one was to describe how last year's Tour Championship unfolded with McIlroy battling back to overtake Scheffler and win, it would have been met with shock. But doing it two years in a row? It legitimately sounds improbable. However, Scheffler's total and seemingly complete inability to putt has already cost him plenty of tournaments this season -- and it's going to ruin him once again in Atlanta. McIlroy is dominant at this course and has come back from deeper deficits previously. He's having an incredible season of his own, and while he again missed out on another major championship, perhaps $18 million can fill part of that hole in his heart.
Sleeper -- Rickie Fowler (100-1): If I'm throwing money on a sleeper, I'm going big. Fowler starts in the same position as Schauffele (T11, -3) at seven back of Scheffler, but his odds are nearly five times greater. Sure, Xander has been playing better this year, but lest we forget the roll Rickie was on just a month ago. Seeing Fowler put up a low number and get himself into contention entering the weekend before dueling with the likes of Scheffler and McIlroy would be a sight. And again, if I'm picking a long shot, I want a payday.
Top 10 entering who will not win -- Wyndham Clark: It was a nice run for Clark earlier this summer, but he's fallen off his game and will not be able to compete with some of the big boys on the leaderboard, especially given he's starting six back of the lead.
Biggest jump up the leaderboard -- Xander Schauffele: Just to pick someone other than Fowler, Schauffele has played great at East Lake historically and could see a significant rise from T11 -- especially if he gets off to a hot start.
Biggest fall down the leaderboard -- Lucas Glover: This is just playing the odds, and I'm sorry, I don't believe that this hot stretch continues given the talent in this field and the money on the line.
Bigger achievement with a win -- Scheffler or McIlroy? Rory already holds the record with more FedEx Cups than anyone in the event's history. But to extend that record out with another win and go back-to-back in the postseason? In team sports, we'd be talking about McIlroy being on the verge of creating a dynasty. What Scheffler has done this season is amazing; the consistency with everything other than his putter is rather astounding, if you think about it. And eclipsing $40 million earned (even though the $18 million winner's share here would not officially count) would be astounding. Still, for a guy in McIlroy who appears to be on a never-ending major drought that wracks his mind and soul, being able to fight from behind and win another FedEx Cup would be an achievement that stands alone.
