Chris Archer entered the season with high, Cy Young-level expectations -- and why not? He was coming off a campaign in which he continued to improve his command and changeup, set new career-highs in every meaningful category (starts, innings, ERA+, strikeout-to-walk ratio . . .), and made his first All-Star Game. With Alex Cobb rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, it looked like Archer would again serve as the Rays' post-David Price ace.
Yet Archer's April has strayed from that plan. He's averaging fewer than five innings through four starts, and nearly all his numbers are trending the wrong way. Archer exited his most recent start, Wednesday against the Red Sox, with a Game Score of 26 . . . which, somehow, only tied his season-low mark. (For reference, he had three starts all last season with a sub-30 Game Score.) Archer is now 0-4 on the season and it's time to ask: what's wrong?
Most of the attention will be paid to Archer's velocity. His fastball is traveling more than a mile per hour slower than it did last April, according to PITCHf/x data. But that's too convenient an explanation. Rather, the best answer might be one of the hardest to quantify: his command. The easiest way to think about command is to contrast it with control; the latter is the ability to throw strikes, the former is the ability to throw quality strikes -- be it inside or outside of the zone.
When Archer is at his best, he's primarily a fastball-slider pitcher whose high-grade athleticism allows him to repeat his mechanics often enough for his arsenal to play deeper than it should. Peak Archer will run his two-seamer to the arm side, then dot the inside corner with a four-seamer; he'll manipulate the break on his slider so he can throw it for a strike, then a few pitches later use it as the nasty chase pitch that everyone knows about. In order for Archer to execute those looks, he has to be able to throw strikes with his fastball and get ahead in the count. Right now, Archer can't:
As you can see from the year-to-year comparison, Archer's arm-side command just isn't there. He's elevating his heater far too often, and in general dealing in sloppy geography. That leads to sequences like those on Wednesday night against Mookie Betts. Archer missed high with three consecutive fastballs to begin the game against Betts, eventually handing out a free pass, and later yieled a home run to Betts on this pitch:
Manager Kevin Cash has continued to state there's nothing wrong with Archer physically or mechanically, but how else do you explain Archer's struggles -- his mental or spiritual components? Whatever the root of Archer's woes, this much is clear: the Rays need him to pitch better than he has -- starting soon.
