NASCAR at Michigan takes center stage on Sunday at 2:00 p.m. ET with the 2018 FireKeepers Casino 400. Kurt Busch, who took down this race in 2015, earned the 2018 NASCAR at Michigan pole and is going off at 25-1, while Kevin Harvick is the Vegas favorite at 2-1 after opening at 5-2. Behind him on the NASCAR at Michigan odds board are Kyle Busch at 5-1 and Martin Truex Jr. and 2017 winner Kyle Larson, who are both listed at 6-1.

SportsLine's prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has a proven track record in multiple sports. It also powers McClure's DFS projections, which have led him to over $1 million in career winnings.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big racing events like this are in his blood, and his model has been crushing its 2018 NASCAR picks.

The model has made several huge calls in NASCAR this year, nailing the 1-2 finish for Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick at the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 as well as Harvick's win at the KC Masterpiece 400. It also nailed five of the top 10 at Bristol and two of the top five at Daytona. Anybody following its picks this season is up huge.

Now that the Michigan field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

One surprising pick from the model for this Sunday's FireKeepers Casino 400: Denny Hamlin makes a strong run at the title even though Vegas says he's not a top contender at 20-1 NASCAR odds.

Hamlin is a two-time winner at this track and finished in the top five in this event last year. He's in prime position to make a run at the title and is a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

Another shocker: Harvick, despite being the odds-on FireKeepers Casino 400 favorite, is shut out of the top two at Michigan International Speedway.

Harvick will start eighth on Sunday for NASCAR at Michigan 2018, but has struggled since winning back-to-back-to-back races at Dover, Kansas, and the NASCAR All-Star race last month. He finished 40th in Charlotte and then was fourth in Pocono despite leading 89 laps.

Harvick was 14th in the FireKeepers 400 last year and finished 13th in the fall race at Michigan International Speedway. There are much better values than the 2-1 NASCAR at Michigan odds he's getting on Sunday.

The model also says two other drivers going off with odds of 20-1 or longer make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who bets on these underdogs could strike it rich.

So who wins the 2018 FireKeepers Casino 400? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard from the model that is crushing its NASCAR picks this year.

Kevin Harvick 2-1
Kyle Busch 5-1
Martin Truex Jr. 6-1
Kyle Larson 6-1
Ryan Blaney 18-1
Brad Keselowski 8-1
Joey Logano 15-1
Erik Jones 20-1
Denny Hamlin 20-1
Chase Elliott 20-1
Clint Bowyer 20-1
Kurt Busch 25-1
Aric Almirola 40-1