Pocono Speedway takes center stage on Sunday at 2:30 p.m. ET for the 2018 Gander Outdoors 400. After opening at 5-2, Kevin Harvick has improved to 3-2 in the latest NASCAR at Pocono 2018 odds. Harvick was fourth at Pocono last month, a track that features the longest straightaways on the NASCAR circuit. Right behind him on the odds board is Kyle Busch, who finished third in June, but, like Harvick, must start at the back of the pack on Sunday after failing inspection. Four drivers are going off with 2018 NASCAR at Pocono odds of 10-1 or better. Before you lock in any 2018 NASCAR at Pocono picks, you need to see what the team at SportsLine has to say.

Their model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has a proven track record in multiple sports. It also powers McClure's DFS projections, which have led him to almost $2 million in career winnings. McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big racing events like this are in his blood, and his model has been crushing its 2018 NASCAR picks.

The model projected recent wins for Busch at Chicago and Truex Jr. at Sonoma. It then nailed four of the top five finishers at the Quaker State 400 and three of the top five at New Hampshire last week. Anybody following its picks this season is up huge.

Now that the 2018 Gander Outdoors 400 field is locked, this model has taken driver history, past results, track conditions and more into account and simulated this race 10,000 times. The results were surprising and you need to see them before you finalize your NASCAR at Pocono picks.

One surprising pick from the model for Sunday: Denny Hamlin, going off as an 18-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the checkered flag.

That's because he's the active leader at Pocono with four career wins and has led almost 700 laps at this track in his career. Last year, he finished fourth in the July NASCAR at Pocono race, and this year, he'll start second behind pole-sitter Daniel Suarez. At 18-1, he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

Another shocker: Chase Elliott, the fifth-biggest favorite, is shut out of the top 10. He'll start sixth at Pocono.

Elliott was 10th last month at Pocono, but has finished no better than 13th in three of his last four races overall. It's shocking because while Elliott has yet to record a win in his young NASCAR career, he has been the runner-up eight times and had a ARCA Series win at Pocono in 2013. Still, the model says he'll run nowhere near the front of the pack on Sunday in the 2018 Gander Outdoors 400.

The model also says two drivers going off with 2018 NASCAR at Pocono odds of 20-1 or longer will make a serious run at the checkered flag, including a monster long shot. Anyone who bets on these underdogs could strike it rich.

So who wins the 2018 Gander Outdoors 400? And which monster long shot stuns NASCAR? Check out the latest NASCAR at Pocono odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard from the model that is crushing its NASCAR picks this year.

Kevin Harvick 3-2
Kyle Busch 4-1
Martin Truex Jr. 9-2
Kyle Larson 10-1
Chase Elliott 12-1  
Brad Keselowski 12-1
Ryan Blaney 18-1
Denny Hamlin 18-1
Clint Bowyer 18-1
Joey Logano 20-1
Erik Jones 25-1
Kurt Busch 40-1
Aric Almirola 40-1
Daniel Suarez 60-1  
Jimmie Johnson 80-1