After not winning a race last season, Martin Truex Jr. took the checkered flag for his first victory of the year last weekend. He'll try to make it back-to-back wins on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET, when he is 8-1 in the 2023 AdventHealth 400 odds on Caesars Sportsbook. He should have every reason to feel confident, as he has only finished outside of the top 10 once in his last 12 NASCAR at Kansas starts. He'll still have to beat 2023 NASCAR in Kansas contenders like Tyler Reddick (7-1), William Byron (6-1), and overall NASCAR Kansas favorite Kyle Larson (9-2).
Before scouring the 2023 AdventHealth 400 starting lineup and making any 2023 NASCAR at Kansas predictions, be sure to see the latest 2023 AdventHealth 400 picks from SportsLine's proven NASCAR model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
McClure's model is off to a red-hot start this season, already nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1) and Kyle Larson's win at Martinsville (6-1). In Austin, it called Tyler Reddick one of its best values when he won for a 10-1 payout. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 10 winners since 2021. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2023 AdventHealth 400 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2023 NASCAR at Kansas leaderboard.
Top 2023 AdventHealth 400 predictions
One surprise: the model is high on Kevin Harvick, even though he's an 18-1 longshot in the latest 2023 NASCAR at Kansas odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Although he didn't have the best luck at Kansas last season, he has been strong there overall for the last few years.
From 2018 through 2021, Harvick had one win, one top-10 finish and four top-five performances at Kansas in eight total races. While he's still looking for his first victory this year, he has been competitive all season and he has the sixth-highest gain rate among all drivers this year (2.56), which tracks passing based on difficulty. Harvick has come close to winning this year, with three top-five finishes, and he should be in the mix once again on Sunday. See who else to back at SportsLine.
And a massive shocker: Tyler Reddick, one of the Vegas favorites at 7-1, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in the 2023 AdventHealth 400 starting lineup.
Reddick has been one of the most inconsistent drivers in the Cup Series this season, finishing outside the top 10 on seven occasions. He has been outside the top 15 in two of his last three races, so his current form does not match his price on the Kansas NASCAR odds board. Reddick has struggled at Kansas in recent years, with just one top 10 finish in his last six attempts. See which other drivers to avoid at SportsLine.
How to make 2023 NASCAR at Kansas picks
The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2023 Kansas NASCAR odds of 14-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the AdventHealth 400 2023? And which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2023 NASCAR at Kansas odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2023 Kansas NASCAR leaderboard, all from the model that already called winners at the Clash, Duel, Pala Casino 400 and NOCO 400.
2023 AdventHealth 400 odds, lineup
See full 2023 NASCAR at Kansas picks at SportsLine
Kyle Larson 9-2
Denny Hamlin 6-1
William Byron 6-1
Tyler Reddick 7-1
Christopher Bell 8-1
Martin Truex Jr. 8-1
Chase Elliott 12-1
Kyle Busch 14-1
Ryan Blaney 14-1
Ross Chastain 14-1
Bubba Wallace 15-1
Kevin Harvick 18-1
Joey Logano 20-1
Brad Keselowski 30-1
Daniel Suarez 35-1
Ty Gibbs 35-1
Josh Berry 50-1
Austin Cindric 75-1
Chris Buescher 75-1
Chase Briscoe 75-1
A.J. Allmendinger 100-1
Aric Almirola 100-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 100-1
Erik Jones 100-1
Ryan Preece 125-1
Austin Dillon 125-1
Justin Haley 200-1
Michael McDowell 300-1
Corey Lajoie 300-1
Noah Gragson 500-1
Harrison Burton 500-1
Todd Gilliland 750-1
Ty Dillon 1000-1
JJ Yeley 2500-1
Brennan Poole 2500-1
Josh Bilicki 5000-1
