Gander RV 400 odds, picks 2019: Proven NASCAR model says Erik Jones surprises at Pocono

NASCAR's top circuit heads back to Pocono Raceway on Sunday for the 2019 Gander RV 400. It's the second race of the season at Pocono and the intensity continues to ratchet up since we're down to just six races before the start of the playoffs. Jimmie Johnson is already a NASCAR legend with seven career Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series championships, but he's on the outside looking in at 17th in the current standings, with the top 16 drivers getting into the playoffs. The three-time winner at Pocono could use a strong finish this week to get back into playoff position, but he's a 50-1 longshot in the latest 2019 Gander RV 400 odds. He'll also start way back in the 2019 NASCAR at Pocono grid in 32nd after failing inspection. Meanwhile, Kyle Busch has won the last two races at Pocono and is the 5-2 favorite, with Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick all listed at 5-1. Before you make your 2019 Gander RV 400 picks, see the NASCAR at Pocono predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Developed by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track history and recent results into account.

The model is off to an extremely strong start in NASCAR this year. It correctly predicted Martin Truex Jr.'s victory at the Toyota/Save Mart 350 in Sonoma. It also called Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin a top-four contender from the start. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers at the Pennzoil 400, which included putting Joey Logano, who won the race, in its projected top five. Additionally, it had Coca-Cola 600 winner Truex in its top two and then nailed Kyle Busch's huge win at Pocono.

It also made some huge calls last year, including correctly projecting wins for Busch at Chicago and Truex at Sonoma. It also nailed three of the top four finishers at Michigan and two of the top four at the Daytona 500. Anybody who has followed its picks is way up.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at venues like Pocono Raceway are in his blood. Now, his model simulated the NASCAR at Pocono 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For NASCAR at Pocono 2019, we can tell you the model is high on Erik Jones, who makes a strong run at the checkered flag despite going off as a 20-1 long shot. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

Jones is currently 14th in the NASCAR standings with a half-dozen top-five finishes already this year. The 23-year-old has made the playoffs the last two seasons and Pocono Raceway provides a fitting shot at creating a larger cushion.

In the first race this season at Pocono, Jones finished third after starting in fourth. He's been consistent at the track throughout his career as well. In fact, Jones has cracked the top 10 in four of his five starts there and owns three top-five finishes, making him an appealing value at 20-1 on Sunday in Pennsylvania. Overall, Jones has led laps in three of his last four starts and placed third the last two races (Kentucky, New Hampshire).

And a massive shocker: Brad Keselowski, one of the top Vegas favorites at 5-1, barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in a loaded 2019 NASCAR at Pocono grid.

Keselowski finished second at Pocono back in June and won this event back in 2011, but he has also finished outside the top 20 at Pocono five times. That includes a 38th-place finish in this event last season when a crash ended his day 121 laps into the race.

Despite sitting on the pole last week in New Hampshire, Keselowski had a disappointing 10th-place finish and prior to that he had finished 18th or worse in three of four starts. He's got three wins this season and is sitting in fifth in the standings, but the volatility makes him a tough play at his current price.

The model is also targeting three other drivers with 2019 NASCAR at Pocono odds of 16-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big.

So who wins the 2019 Gander RV 400? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2019 Gander RV 400 leaderboard, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks this season

Kyle Busch 5-2
Brad Keselowski 5-1
Martin Truex Jr. 5-1
Kevin Harvick 5-1
Denny Hamlin 10-1
Joey Logano 14-1
Chase Elliott 16-1
Ryan Blaney 20-1
Kyle Larson 20-1
Erik Jones 20-1
Kurt Busch 25-1
Clint Bowyer 25-1
Aric Almirola 40-1
Daniel Suarez 40-1
Jimmie Johnson 50-1
Alex Bowman 50-1
William Byron 80-1

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