NASCAR All-Star Race odds, picks 2019: Proven model says Aric Almirola will surprise at Charlotte

The 2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series is a third of the way through the season, and on Saturday it takes a break from regular season action for the 2019 NASCAR All-Star Race at Charlotte Motor Speedway. No points will be accumulated, but the action will still be intense with a $1 million prize on the line and the winner taking it all. This year's NASCAR All-Star Race will be the 35th in history and 43-year-old Jimmie Johnson will be seeking to capture his fifth win in this prestigious event. He's at 20-1 in the latest 2019 NASCAR All-Star Race odds, but there are 12 other drivers with the same odds or shorter. That includes Kyle Busch, who is listed at 5-1 after three wins and 11 top-10 finishes in the first 12 races of the season. However, he's second in the standings behind Joey Logano (8-1), who won this race in 2016. Before you make your 2019 NASCAR All-Star Race picks, be sure to check out the NASCAR at Charlotte predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Developed by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track history and recent results into account. 

The model is off to a strong start in NASCAR this year, calling Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin a top-four contender from the start. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers at the Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its projected top five. It also called Kyle Busch's huge win at Bristol last month.

It made some huge calls last year, including correctly projecting wins for Kyle Busch at Chicago and Martin Truex Jr. at Sonoma. It also nailed three of the top four finishers at Michigan and two of the top four at the Daytona 500. Anybody who has followed its picks is way up.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at iconic venues like Charlotte Motor Speedway are in his blood. Now, his model simulated the 2019 NASCAR All-Star Race 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For NASCAR at Charlotte 2019, we can tell you the model is high on Aric Almirola, who makes a strong run at the checkered flag on Saturday despite going off at 18-1 odds. Almirola captured his first win in 2018 and finished fifth in the standings that season. He's off to a solid start with seven top-10 finishes so far this season.

With NASCAR implementing a new aerodynamics package for tracks between 1-2 miles this season, Almirola has dialed in his setup for 1.5-mile speedways rather quickly. In three races at tracks of those distances so far, he's collected three top-10 finishes. That includes collecting a pole in Atlanta and leading 36 laps before finishing in eighth place. His Stewart Haas Racing Ford is fast, and he's a serious threat to climb the 2019 NASCAR All-Star Race leaderboard in a hurry on Saturday. 

And a massive shocker: Chase Elliott, one of the top Vegas favorites at 10-1, barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in a loaded 2019 NASCAR All-Star Race lineup. Elliott won at Talladega three weeks ago and has four top-five finishes on the season. But he struggled at Texas earlier this year, which could be a bad sign for how he'll perform at Charlotte. 

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2019 NASCAR All-Star Race odds of 18-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big.

So who wins the 2019 All-Star Race? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest 2019 NASCAR at Charlotte odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard for the 2019 All-Star Race, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks.

Kevin Harvick 4-1
Kyle Busch 5-1
Joey Logano 8-1
Brad Keselowski 10-1
Chase Elliott 10-1
Martin Truex Jr. 10-1
Clint Bowyer 10-1
Ryan Blaney 12-1
Erik Jones 16-1
Denny Hamlin 18-1
Aric Almirola 18-1
Jimmie Johnson 20-1
Austin Dillon 20-1
Kurt Busch 25-1
Ryan Newman 60-1
Field (any other driver) 8-1

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