For the power players and decision-makers at NASCAR, this Saturday night's regular season finale at Daytona is a playoff dream come true.
With just one race to go before the Cup Series playoffs begin, the situation at the cutoff line could not be more tense, nor could there be so many potential different outcomes. At the start of the week, 15 drivers had secured spots on the grid by virtue of winning a race this season, which had left only one spot remaining in the playoff standings for a driver yet to win this season.
Then, Thursday saw a lifeline thrown to another driver at the cutoff line when Kurt Busch, who is still recovering from injuries sustained in a crash at Pocono, announced he would withdraw his medical waiver and not compete in the playoffs. Busch's withdrawal opened up an additional spot on the playoff grid, giving both Ryan Blaney and Martin Truex Jr. some much-needed breathing room.
But in a championship format where a win gets you on to the playoff grid, and with so many different drivers having shown they're capable of winning this season, neither driver is truly safe -- especially not at the Daytona International Speedway, where a superspeedway race gives anyone in the top 30 in points a chance to win.
With Blaney and Truex trying to keep the final spots in the playoffs, and 13 other drivers trying to take it from them, here is a look at the clinch scenarios for each driver currently not locked into the NASCAR playoffs in this weekend's Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona.
(Odds via Caesars Sportsbook)
Ryan Blaney
Ryan Blaney (+1200) can clinch a spot in the playoffs by winning at Daytona, where oddsmakers have him among the favorites, or if he gains 31 points to stay either ahead of or tied with Martin Truex Jr. in points regardless of whether or not there is a new winner.
In the event that Blaney scores no stage points, he would need to finish at least sixth in order to clinch a playoff spot. If Blaney scores 11 more stage points than Truex and is 36 points ahead of Truex at the end of Stage 2, Blaney would be able to clinch a playoff spot mid-race.
If Blaney and Truex end up tied in points and there is a new winner, Blaney would win the tiebreaker by virtue of having one third-place finish and four fourth-place finishes, provided Truex doesn't finish in second place.
Martin Truex Jr.
Martin Truex Jr. (+1700) will clinch a spot in the playoffs as long as there are no new winners. He can also clinch a spot by winning at Daytona, or if he surpasses Ryan Blaney in points (Blaney must score 30 points or less) in the event that there is a new winner.
If Blaney and Truex end up tied in points in the event that there is a new winner, Truex must finish second at Daytona in order to win the tiebreaker. Truex would lose a tiebreaker in any other scenario, as he has no third-place finishes this season and just two fourth-place finishes.
The following drivers cannot make up the deficit to the playoff cutoff line on points, and must win the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona in order to qualify for the playoffs
- Erik Jones (+3500)
- Aric Almirola (+2500)
- Austin Dillon (+3000)
- Bubba Wallace (+1200)
- Chris Buescher (+3000)
- Justin Haley (+5000)
- Michael McDowell (+4000)
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+3000)
- Cole Custer (+7500)
- Brad Keselowski (+2000)
- Harrison Burton (+12500)
- Ty Dillon (+15000)
- Todd Gilliland (+15000)
The following drivers have been eliminated from playoff contention. These two drivers are outside the top 30 in points and cannot make up the deficit to 30th at Daytona
- Corey LaJoie (+5000)
- Cody Ware (+100000)
