MVP Candidate Paul George and the Oklahoma City Thunder look for their fifth straight win tonight as they travel to New Orleans to take on Anthony Davis and the Pelicans. The Pelicans are coming off of a 30-point loss at home to the Magic, in which Davis said the Pelicans "didn't seem interested." Can they bounce back in their final game before the All-Star Break, or will OKC cruise to another victory? Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. ET from the Smoothie King Center. Sportsbooks list the Thunder as 4.5-point home favorites, while the Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 237 in the latest Thunder vs. Pelicans odds. Before you make any Thunder vs. Pelicans picks, check out the NBA predictions from SportsLine's proven model.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks this season. It entered Week 18 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling 212-158 record on all top-rated picks, returning more than $4,000 to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA picks against the spread, entering Week 18 on a blistering 41-26 run. Anybody following it is way up.
Now it has locked in on the Thunder vs. Pelicans spread. We can tell you it's leaning under, and it also has locked in a confident against-the-spread pick that hits in well over 50 percent of simulations, indicating the line is way off in this one. You can only see that NBA pick over at SportsLine.
The model is well aware of how dominant the Thunder have been lately. While their third-ranked defensive efficiency this season is what they're known for, OKC has put on an offensive display in 2019. They've won 11 of their past 12 games, thanks in large part to an uncharacteristic 122 point scoring average during that time. No team has shot a better percentage from beyond the arc than the Thunder in 2019, and their 119.2 offensive rating during the 12-game sample just referenced also leads the league.
Paul George has been the engine behind their high-powered offensive attack, averaging an eye-popping 36 points during that 12-game stretch. He's averaged six made three pointers per game during that stretch on a white-hot 49.3% mark from downtown. The Pelicans have allowed the third most made three pointers and the fourth highest three point percentage, so don't look for OKC to cool down any time soon.
Just because OKC has looked unstoppable lately, doesn't mean it will cover the spread against the Pelicans, though.
The model is also well aware that the Thunder enter this game pretty banged-up, with two of their key contributors out. Both Dennis Schroder and Jerami Grant will miss this game, leaving OKC's winning streak looking pretty vulnerable. The drop off from Grant and Schroder to Patrick Patterson and Raymond Felton is a big one.
Meanwhile, the Pelicans are getting healthy just in time for this matchup. Davis, Julius Randle and Jahlil Okafor have been re-inserted into the rotation after missing some time with injury, while Elfrid Payton has been upgraded from doubtful to questionable for this one. The Pels have already beaten the Thunder at the Smoothie King Center once this season, and they had covered the spread in six of eight home games prior to their implosion against the Magic. Could this be a spot to target a bounce-back game from the Pelicans?
So who wins Thunder vs. Pelicans? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Thunder vs. Pelicans spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
