I love the playoffs, but here's what I hate about them: It's a wasteland where stats go to die and narratives thrive. Take the most popular narrative of every postseason: Peyton Manning chokes come playoff time.
Well, this is what the stats say ... Manning's playoff passer rating sits at 88.5. Sure, that's a dropoff from the regular season (96.5 passer rating), but that might have more to do with the fact that, for the most part, only good teams play each other in the postseason, meaning Manning's playoff numbers aren't padded by tearing apart lowly teams.
Even the clutch Tom Brady sees a significant dip in his numbers.
Brady's regular season passer rating sits at 96.4. His passer rating in the playoffs sinks to 89.0. So, for what it's worth, Manning's passer rating drops by eight points in the playoffs while Brady's drops by 7.4. But, because Brady's won four Super Bowl rings, we tend to overlook Brady's postseason decline. Manning, on the other hand, just has that one lonely ring -- only one more than you and me, right?
I'm not saying all playoff narratives lie. Here's one that holds up: Andy Dalton really has struggled. As long as we're comparing regular-season ratings to playoff ratings (which I admit, isn't the perfect stat), let's look at Dalton's demise. In the regular season, Dalton's compiled a passer rating of 88.4. In the postseason? 57.8.
Look, sometimes the absence of stats in the playoffs makes sense -- sample sizes are smaller and vary more drastically from player to player. Is it really fair to compare Adrian Peterson's career playoff numbers to LeGarrette Blount's when Blount's been fortunate enough to play for the Patriots? Of course not.
But, while stats don't always tell the entire story, they can at least help weed out the fictional narratives that creep up every January. On that note, let's get to the stats to know for Wild Card Weekend ...
1. Sizzling teams don't always win in the playoffs
The Kansas City Chiefs are the hottest team in football. They haven't lost since Oct. 18. They've won 10 games in a row. The Chiefs became the second team ever to start 1-5 and still make the playoffs. Now, they'll be getting star pass rusher Justin Houston back from a knee injury.
But, despite common belief, the hottest teams entering the playoffs don't often win Super Bowls. Check out what Football Outsiders' Scott Kacsmar discovered. If you're a Chiefs fan, you might want to avert your eyes.
I'm still taking the Chiefs this weekend. The Texans have the worse quarterback, Brian Hoyer, and I'm not sure their protection will hold up. They just lost starting left tackle Duane Brown for the season, and the Chiefs are one of the best teams at getting after the quarterback, ranking fourth in sacks with 47 on the season.
For the Chiefs, the problem is that they're a wild-card team, which means they'll be forced to play away from home. Their 10-game winning streak to end the season was remarkable and they're an entirely different team than the one that took the field for the first month and a half of the season, but only two of their wins during their streak came against playoff teams (the Broncos and Steelers).
They'll be tested with three potential road playoff games.
2. The Chiefs' ugly playoff history
The last time the Chiefs won in the postseason, their rookie cornerback Marcus Peters had just finished celebrating his first birthday. The Chiefs' last playoff victory came back in January of 1994 against the Houston Oilers. So, fittingly, the Chiefs can beat a team from Houston to end their drought.
Since that win in the divisional playoffs, the Chiefs have lost eight consecutive playoff games -- tied with the Lions for the longest playoff losing streak. The last time we saw Andy Reid's team in the postseason, they were blowing a 38-10 third-quarter lead to the Colts two postseasons ago.
Yep, the Chiefs managed to lose a game in which Alex Smith threw for 378 yards and four touchdowns.
Oh, and the last time we saw Andy Reid win a playoff game, Donovan McNabb still played quarterback for the Eagles (Jan. 11, 2009).
3. The Texans' turnaround
Like the Chiefs, the Texans also pulled off a pretty stunning turnaround.
In October, the Texans were 1-4. They ended the year with a 9-7 record, somehow winning the AFC South. The Texans are the first team since the 2011 Broncos to start 1-4 and still make the playoffs.
Remember who quarterbacked that Broncos team?
Since their bye (Week 9), the Texans are surrendering just 13.5 points per game.
4. Can the Vikings run on Seattle?
Adrian Peterson won this season's rushing title with 1,485 yards. He tied for the league lead in rushing touchdowns with 11.
But Seattle is allowing 81.5 rushing yards per game. The last time the two teams met, Peterson carried the ball eight times for 18 yards.
That play above -- the one where the Seahawks simply swallow Peterson -- is his longest run from that game. It's a 5-yard gain.
Also, it's going to beyond cold in Minnesota on Sunday -- like Game of Thrones winter is coming type of cold.
5. Marvin Lewis' postseason issues
In the regular season, Marvin Lewis boasts a 112-94-2 record. On the other hand, in the playoffs, Lewis hasn't fared so well.
If the Bengals lose to the Steelers on Saturday, will Lewis be on the hot seat?
There's no denying his run of success -- the Bengals have won 43 games in the past four seasons -- but at some point the franchise won't be able to ignore his lack of postseason results. Per STATS, only one team has ever won at least 10 regular season games in four straight years and emerged with zero playoff wins in that span. If the Bengals lose Saturday to the Steelers, they'll join the 1988-1991 Eagles as the only teams to have done so.
Oh and by the way, since the Bengals won their last postseason game (1990), the Steelers have won 17.
5A. Lewis' coaching tree is thriving
Marvin Lewis, Jay Gruden, and Mike Zimmer all won their respective divisions this year. Two years ago, they were all on the same staff in Cincinnati.
Will one of Lewis' former assistants win a playoff game before he does?
6. The Steelers can tie an NFL postseason record
The Steelers have won the second-most playoff games in NFL history. With 33 wins, they trail only the Cowboys and their 34 wins. The Cowboys have played in 60 playoff games while the Steelers have taken part in 55.
Here's how the top list shakes out (per STATS):
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Cowboys (34)
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Steelers (33)
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Packers (31)
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49ers (30)
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Patriots (28)
With that being said, the Steelers are on a three-game losing streak in the playoffs, which began with their Super Bowl loss to the Packers in February of 2011.
7. The Steelers' difficult times on the road
As the No. 6 seed, the Steelers will be forced to win three games on the road to journey to the Super Bowl. That'll be an especially tough task for this Steelers' team.
On the road, the Steelers are 4-4, they're averaging roughly eight fewer points than they score at home, and their turnover differential is -7. At home, that differential is +9.
Still, there's hope: The Steelers have posted a 21-5 record in Cincinnati since 1991 (via STATS).
8. Are the Packers -- losers of two straight -- in trouble?
The Packers are stumbling into the postseason, having lost two games in a row. Earlier, I highlighted how hot teams don't necessarily maintain their fire in the postseason. But what about cold teams? Do slumps matter once the regular season ends?
Between that and the Redskins' new rally towels, the Packers might have no chance Sunday.
Then again, Rodgers holds the NFL's third-highest passer rating (101.0) of all-time in the playoffs.
9. The Redskins' magic number: 22
The Packers offense is struggling -- averaging just 20.4 points per game since their Week 7 bye. This year, the Redskins are 8-0 when they score at least 22 points.
In other news, I know what song should be blasting at FedEx Field ...
Side note: I probably should've placed this one at the top of the column so you would've had something to listen to while reading.
Second side note: I haven't even filed this column and I can already feel the T-Swift haters heading to the comments section. Anyway, if "the haters gonna hate, hate, hate, hate, hate," feel free to do so on Twitter.
Leftovers
- Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins were the only two quarterbacks to throw a touchdown in every game of the season.
- The Seahawks haven't lost a game by more than 10 points since Oct. 30, 2011.
Quote of the week!