Will Brinson's 2019 NFL Week 11 Picks Against the Spread
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Steelers (+3) at Browns
I've got concerns about everyone taking Pittsburgh here with their win streak rolling, but those are mitigated by folks wanting to back the Browns. Action Network's data says there's more money on the Browns than tickets, which is a red flag. And I'm worried about a bad Steelers offense that is averaging like five yards per play with Mason Rudolph. However, the Browns have to run to win right now and since Minkah Fitzpatrick came via trade, the Steelers have only given up three runs of more than 20 yards. They haven't given up a 40+ yard run all year. I don't think the Browns will do much on offense on a short week. Mike Tomlin's covered his last three TNF games, albeit all as a favorite.
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Cowboys (-5.5) at Lions
This pretty much comes down to me not believing Matthew Stafford is playing? He has a pretty major sounding back injury that isn't going to magically heal in seven days and playing him would be borderline irresponsible. The Lions need him to stay healthy for next year, given how they've started. I'll take the Cowboys to take care of business against a sub-.500 team with a backup quarterback, even on the road.
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Jaguars (+3) at Colts
Frank Reich is a significant coaching advantage for Indy here, but the Jags should be well rested and able to run against the 23rd ranked run defense by DVOA. Leonard Fournette could have a big game here, but all eyes will be on the quarterback, with Nick Foles returning after Doug Marrone benched Gardner Minshew. The Jags have the option to go back to Minshew if needed, but I think Foles can move the ball here. This game should be close, but if Brian Hoyer is starting again I'll take the points.
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Vikings (-10.5) vs. Broncos
The setup here is a little concerning because the Broncos actually have a good defense. They could theoretically create some havoc here for the Vikings. But in good efforts against Indy (L) and Cleveland (W), they still gave up an average of 120 rushing yards per game. Minnesota loves to run and Dalvin Cook should have a field day knowing the Vikings bye is coming up. Minnesota's home-field advantage is enormous -- I would peg this more as a 14-point spread than 10.5, personally.
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Texans (+4) at Ravens
Don't love fading the white hot Lamar Jackson given how locked in the Ravens are right now. They didn't remotely fall for the lookahead spot against the Bengals. And the Texans defense isn't great, although it should be much healthier this week and has been decent against the run this year. Also, I'm just probably going to always take more than a field goal with Deshaun Watson just about every time you give it to me. I think the over (50) is a very good bet here as well.
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Jets (+1) at Redskins
What am I missing here? Why are the Redskins favored? I know the Jets have been really bad this season but they're coming off a win over the Giants and have a decent setup to take care of business here. The Redskins want to run and New York is decent on defense there. They're not going to get torched by Dwayne Haskins here. Washington's defense isn't good but they don't "give up" a ton of points. I think that's more of a byproduct of Bill Callahan's game plan: the Redskins have scored 35 points in four weeks since he took over. They're just willing to throw rocks and get out of dodge. Look at the under here no matter how low it gets, with wind coming into play.
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Panthers (-5.5) vs. Falcons
Sunday's weather should be a little bit better than it was in Green Bay, which bodes well for Kyle Allen to have a decent game against the Falcons. I know Atlanta looked awesome against the Saints and the defense came to play/try to save Dan Quinn's job. I'm not sure this is a good matchup for the Falcons though, because the Panthers are vulnerable against the run and get after passers. Julio Jones is always a threat to go for 300 yards against Carolina, but Ron Rivera's defenses have fared well against Dirk Koetter's offenses. This is broad, but they've gone head to head since 2012 either with Atlanta or Tampa Bay and in those 14 games, Koetter's team has averaged 17.4 points per game and are 5-9 against the Panthers.
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Buccaneers (+5) vs. Saints
The Saints are a much better team than the Bucs in my opinion, and they're coming off a bad division loss, so they should be motivated to handle Tampa. However, I'm not sure this is a great spot for the Saints. The Bucs are great against the run and need to be torched through the air. Drew Brees isn't throwing the ball downfield (he has just eight attempts of 20+ air yards this season per Sports Info Solutions), although Michael Thomas should still have a field day. If Marshon Lattimore is missing I like the Bucs a lot here. New Orleans has been good on the road but doesn't typically go down to Tampa and blow out the Bucs. Bruce Arians can go head to head with Sean Payton here.
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Cardinals (+11.5) at 49ers
Is this too obvious to take the Cardinals? Arizona looked good against Tampa Bay and Kyler Murray is balling out right now. The 49ers just lost to the Seahawks, which means the line dropped significantly. More importantly, Kyle Shanahan and Jimmy Garoppolo could be missing Emmanuel Sanders and George Kittle in a game that is a lookahead spot with the Packers coming to town in Week 12 for Monday Night Football and potentially home-field advantage on the line. You have to take the double digit points I think.
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Patriots (-3.5) at Eagles
Tom Brady and Bill Belichick off a bye laying basically a field goal (you could buy it to three, which I think is smart)? I mean, it's tough to fade even on the road. Belichick is 9-2 against the spread in his career off the bye when he's on the road. The only two ATS and SU losses in those spots were the 2011 Steelers (No. 1 defense) and 2013 Panthers (No. 2 defense). The matchup is a little concerning, since Philly has a great OL and can be physical in the run game. The Eagles are also off the bye and should be getting healthier in the secondary. Doug Pederson is just 1-2 straight up off the bye in his career, curious for a guy who worked for Andy Reid. Belichick and Brady are 42-13 straight up after a loss since they teamed up.
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Raiders (-10.5) vs. Bengals
Would definitely prefer getting Oakland -10 here, but there's no doubt which way I would go with this game. The Bengals are horrific against the run, giving up 173 yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry. They've coughed up 12 rushing touchdowns on the season and have allowed 16 (!) runs of 20 yards or more. The Raiders are running well right now and Josh Jacobs is challenging for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Jacobs was one of the picks Jon Gruden got as part of the Khalil Mack trade -- winning that award definitely matters to Gruden. Also a factor here? Paul Guenther going against his old team. It probably bugs him they hired Zac Taylor and didn't consider him for the job, and I bet he sends some funky stuff at Ryan Finley. Raiders roll big here.
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Bears (+6.5) at Rams
Tough Sunday night game here since this SHOULD have been a matchup of two would-be Super Bowl contenders. This might be a win or go home game instead. The Bears haven't looked good and I don't trust Mitchell Trubisky against this defense, but the Rams laying a touchdown right now just isn't acceptable. I would hammer this under if it's higher than 40, although defensive touchdowns could come into play. Khalil Mack has disappeared lately but he should feast on a completely depleted Rams offensive line. Jared Goff looks completely lost right now and has zero protection. This should be a slugfest barring a bunch of fumbles to the house.
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Chiefs (-4) vs. Chargers
Neutral field game in Mexico here, which indicates the Chiefs would be a full touchdown favorite over the Chargers in Kansas City. That is probably too much? I don't like giving more than a field goal when there's a decent chance Philip Rivers storms through the backdoor here. But here's the thing: before last year's stunning comeback at Arrowhead, the Chargers had lost eight straight games to the Chiefs. There's no reason to believe Rivers and Anthony Lynn will outcoach a ticked-off Andy Reid in primetime here, especially with the Chargers likely missing Russell Okung. Tyreek Hill will get deep on this secondary a couple times.
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