Will Brinson's Week 13 Picks Against the Spread
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Redskins (+1) at Cowboys
This is a matchup of two very desperate teams who are basically in a win-or-go-home game at this point. A Redskins win actually seals the NFC East for the Eagles and would force the Cowboys to run the table and get lucky in the process for a wild card. A Cowboys win would do the same thing to the Redskins. Both teams are even on the scale of desperation, so give me the team with the quarterback who is playing better, and that's Kirk Cousins, plus the points.
The Pick: Redskins +1
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Lions (+3) at Ravens
The Ravens handled the Texans on Monday night and get another chance to solidify their playoff aspirations against the Lions in Week 13. The Lions badly need a victory to keep their playoff hopes alive. I like them a good deal in this spot, getting three points against a Ravens team that wasn't entirely impressive on a big stage against Tom Savage. Matthew Stafford will have more success, even against a stout Ravens defense.
The Pick: Lions +3
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49ers (+3.5) at Bears
Not the world's sexiest football game, but there is a little bit of cheese here with the 49ers finally starting Jimmy Garoppolo under center. This might not be the best spot in the world, what with the Bears being a tough defense at home. But the Bears shouldn't be favored by more than a field goal against anyone, even the lowly 49ers. I think we see a little bump from the franchise quarterback going under center and Kyle Shanahan designs a scheme to get the ball out of his hands quickly and avoid pressure.
The Pick: 49ers +3.5
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Falcons (-3) vs. Vikings
This line seems a little funky given how well the Vikings are playing right now, but the Falcons might just be a bad matchup for them. The Falcons are starting to get rolling on offense, Devonta Freeman will be back from a concussion and Julio Jones is coming off his third career 250-yard game. That's more than anyone else in history COMBINED. Case Keenum is kind of due for a come-back-to-Earth game at some point and the Falcons are a capable enough defense.
The Pick: Falcons -3
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Patriots (-8) at Bills
We are absolutely not talking enough about how well Brandin Cooks is playing alongside Tom Brady -- he has helped to add a dimension to this offense that the Patriots have not seen in quite some time. He will keep coming on strong against Buffalo, with the Patriots looking to make sure no funny business messes up their push for a No. 1 seed in the AFC. This could be a shootout, but the Patriots will prevail by double digits again.
The Pick: Patriots -8
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Dolphins (+1) vs. Broncos
Neither of these teams really has any business being favored, because both have been horrible straight up and against the spread this season. Denver is 2-8-1, Miami is 3-6-2. The Dolphins offense meeting up against the Broncos defense is a major mismatch, but the absence of Aqib Talib due to suspension means that one of DeVante Parker or Jarvis Landry is going to get a chance to go off for some decent numbers. Miami wins an ugly one at home.
The Pick: Dolphins +1
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Texans (+7) at Titans
Short week here for a bad Texans team that has more or less been eliminated from the playoffs at this point, and now faces the danger of continued losses leading to them giving up a top-five pick to the Browns. Fortunately they have Deshaun Watson on reserve. Also fortunately, they have DeAndre Hopkins, who is playing some exceptional football despite Tom Savage under center. He will figure out a way to keep the Texans within a touchdown against Tennessee.
The Pick: Texans +7
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Jaguars (-9.5) vs. Colts
The Jaguars struggled to be their best team against the Cardinals in an ugly road loss in Arizona, but this is a much more favorable matchup. They rush the passer and the Colts don't protect well. They want to run the ball and the Colts can't stop them. This is a bounce-back opportunity from Leonard Fournette, who could rip off multiple long runs in a blowout victory.
The Pick: Jaguars -9.5
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Buccaneers (pick 'em) at Packers
Sounds like Jameis Winston is going to play for the Buccaneers in this game, which should be an improvement over Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Bucs offense has been a major question mark for much of the season and they're losing multiple offensive linemen. This ... isn't a great spot. But the Packers gave it their all against the Steelers on Sunday and probably realize they are in trouble when it comes to the playoffs, so here's a letdown coming.
The Pick: Buccaneers
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Jets (+3.5) vs. Chiefs
Coming into the year, Robby Anderson was an interesting sleeper for the Jets because of their busted depth chart at wideout. He's sort of blossomed into a stud as the season's gone along and really exploded last week. He could have more success this weekend against the Chiefs, who are a surprisingly large favorite in this spot despite struggling on both offense and defense over the past month or so. The Jets are a nice little upset option in this spot.
The Pick: Jets +3.5
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Chargers (-13.5) vs. Browns
Philip Rivers might have played the game of his life against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving and now he gets the Browns at home (finally a home game that won't feature a bunch of opposing fans!) with the potential to stay within a game of first in the division and/or tie the Chiefs depending on how things play out. This is a huge spread but the Chargers are playing really well right now and are going to roll here.
The Pick: Chargers -13.5
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Saints (-4) vs. Panthers
This is going to be a great game -- potentially a first-place battle for the NFC South. The Saints are coming off an interesting loss to the Rams, having looked a little bit lost defensively without their top two cornerbacks. Drew Brees was not excellent against a very good Rams defense and there could be concerns about his play against the Panthers. But he's been excellent at home against Carolina the last two years. Cam Newton's been good in New Orleans but I think the Saints sneak this one out.
The Pick: Saints -4
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Rams (-7) at Cardinals
Man, this is a BIG spread. But the problem with going against the Rams is you're basically assuming they won't run up the score. They will run up the score. They've been running up the score. Jared Goff has gotten dialed in for long stretches, with only the Minnesota game serving as a hiccup. Sean McVay understands the importance of winning big in this game and the Cardinals can be scored on.
The Pick: Rams -7
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Raiders (-7) vs. Giants
Can this line be high enough to not take the Raiders? Oakland is not a great team by any stretch and might be missing both Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. But even without their top two wideouts, the Raiders are going up against Geno Smith after Ben McAdoo and the Giants decided to bench Eli Manning and essentially tell the Giants players this season was a waste of time. I expect morale to be low for New York.
The Pick: Raiders -7
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Eagles (-5) at Seahawks
Another absurd line -- betting against the Seahawks as five-point dogs at home, in primetime is just dangerous. But the Eagles are a vastly superior team here, and they match up really well with Seattle's weaknesses. Russell Wilson has no protection and the Eagles send pass rushers in waves, starting with the lethal Fletcher Cox. If Philly gets a lead, it can salt it away with the run and attack via the pass rush. It's basically Seattle's old formula.
The Pick: Eagles -5
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Steelers (-5.5) at Bengals
More road chalk in prime time. Don't care -- the Steelers are a much better team than the Bengals and they have traditionally beat up on Andy Dalton over the course of the last few years. They get Dalton in prime time and as Mike Tomlin said, the stars shine brightest when the lights are on. No one shines more than Antonio Brown. This will be a rock fight, but the Steelers will emerge as an easy winner here.
The Pick: Steelers -5.5
Credit: USATSI
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