Will Brinson's Week 16 NFL Picks Against the Spread
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Ravens (-13.5) vs. Colts
In December, Joe Flacco is averaging more than 275 passing yards per game, completing more than 61 percent of his passes and has five touchdowns to just one interception. The Ravens offense is good?? Beware AFC playoff teams and beware Colts fans -- Indy has checked out, doesn't play great defense and isn't very good on offense. The Ravens rout them here in a big spot. Baltimore needs a win in order to stay alive in the AFC wild card race.
The Pick: Ravens (-13.5)
Credit: USATSI -
Vikings (-9) at Packers
The Packers had a nice little run with Aaron Rodgers back, didn't they? Brett Hundley steps back in under center for the Packers, who are freshly eliminated from the playoffs. This line is about three points too high, I feel like, but I don't know that I can take the Packers in this spot. They will be disappointed, there is nothing to really spoil here, and Minnesota needs the win to ensure it does not lose a first-round bye. This defense looked angry against the Bengals and it will look angry again here.
The Pick: Vikings -9
Credit: USATSI -
Lions (-5) at Bengals
This is a ton of points for a Lions team that isn't entirely great, but it's not enough points against a Bengals team that has completely checked out for the season. The Bengals have been abysmal the last two weeks after losing to the Steelers in primetime, and there is no reason to think they magically summon a great performance here. Detroit has to keep battling for a wild-card spot. They don't blow a lot of teams out but they can blow this team out.
The Pick: Lions -5
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Jets (+6.5) vs. Chargers
Total mismatch here as the Chargers pass rush could envelope Bryce Petty. But Petty stepped in admirably for the injured Josh McCown against the Saints and very nearly helped New York pull off the upset. The Chargers could look lethargic in this game after a deflating loss to the Chiefs, traveling to the east coast for a 1 p.m. game that could feature bad weather. It's easy to see an upset happening, or at the very least Los Angeles needing a late field goal to steal this game.
The Pick: Jets +6.5
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Rams (-6.5) at Titans
Some concern here about the Rams coming into a let-down game after walloping their division rivals in a "did we just see the power structure change" beatdown of the Seahawks. But this is still a massive game for the Rams, who can clinch the NFC West title with a victory in Tennessee. The Titans are desperate for a win too, but do not look like the type of team you want to trust on offense or defense right now. Los Angeles is simply better and Todd Gurley will have another field day.
The Pick: Rams -6.5
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Bears (-6.5) vs. Browns
Chicago has no business being favored by a touchdown against anyone this late in the season, but there could be a little bit of motivation here for the Bears. Jordan Howard was just snubbed for the Pro Bowl (although he could easily land as an alternate) and could try and crack the Browns' No. 1 ranked DVOA rush defense (!). The Browns are susceptible through the air and Mitchell Trubisky will bounce back. Chicago can turnover DeShone Kizer and won't want to be the Browns first/only win of the year.
The Pick: Bears -6.5
Credit: Raj Mehta / USA TODAY Sports -
Panthers (-10) vs. Buccaneers
Tampa Bay looked very good against the Falcons on Monday night, but that was their Super Bowl and they fell short, similar to the Bengals against the Steelers. I don't think Tampa will just lay down, especially with Jameis Winston trying to prove people wrong about his stepback season and potentially trying to save Dirk Koetter's job. But I do think the Panthers, who can clinch a playoff spot with a win here, are just a better overall team than Atlanta and a MUCH better overall team than Tampa. They'll pressure Jameis and put the hammer down in the run game.
The Pick: Panthers -10
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Falcons (+5.5) at Saints
Revenge will be on the mind for Drew Brees and Co., who may have been looking ahead a little bit for this game while playing the Jets. The Falcons are on a short week, but they know this game could determine their playoff lives; win and they are in, lose and they can get bumped if they fall short in Week 17. The Saints run defense is slipping a little bit and it's possible that you see Devonta Freeman go nuts this week as well. Ultimately this game comes down to a field goal.
The Pick: Falcons +5.5
Credit: USATSI -
Redskins (-3.5) vs. Broncos
Feels like Denver is getting a little too much credit here for their recent two-game win streak against the Jets and the Colts. Credit to the Broncos for righting the ship -- they can do damage against a banged-up Redskins team that is just trying to get through the season and show some pride for Jay Gruden. Kirk Cousins has a lot of money on the line here, though, and I expect him to play well against this secondary.
The Pick: Redskins -3.5
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Chiefs (-10.5) vs. Dolphins
Kansas City is coming off of extra rest with their Saturday victory over the Chargers, they are starting to play much better on offense again and the Jay Cutler-led Dolphins have a glazed-over look about them. Their Super Bowl victory over the Patriots two weeks ago did not result in a springboard for a playoff run. The Chiefs can clinch the division here, which will mean a heavy dose of Kareem Hunt (150+ scrimmage yards again) and a rout in KC.
The Pick: Chiefs -10.5
Credit: USATSI -
Bills (+11.5) at Patriots
There's no really good reason to like the Bills in this spot, because the Patriots have now taken care of business with a win over the Steelers and are just two AFC East wins away from strolling to the No. 1 seed. But LeSean McCoy is running the ball really well right now and the Patriots simply can't stop anyone with their depleted defense. They will be happy to get out of dodge with a 21-14 win over a frisky Buffalo team that is in a tight battle for one of the AFC wild card spots.
The pick: Bills +11.5
Credit: USATSI -
49ers (+4.5) vs. Jaguars
Do you think John Lynch is happy about his decision to trade a second-round pick for Jimmy Garoppolo? I bet he is! The 49ers are on a roll, having won three-straight games since Jimmy G stepped under center. This is clearly their toughest test, with a dangerous Jaguars defense coming to town. Garoppolo's quick release and the 49ers defense can keep this close in a mismatch. They lose by a field goal and maybe pull the upset.
The Pick: 49ers +4.5
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Cardinals (-3.5) vs. Giants
Don't really plan on spending any time actually watching this game on Sunday. It is a bad game, featuring two bad teams and it will not be good football. The hook is very confusing here, because it does not make sense to have the Cardinals favored that much. It's almost like the Giants are TOO obvious or something. Arizona's been terrible against the spread but better at home (3-3-1 against the number). The Giants have been a nice road dog (4-2) but have lost those games by an average of 4.2 points.
The Pick: Cardinals -3.5
Credit: USATSI -
Seahawks (+5) at Cowboys
Elimination game for both teams here, with the loser going home for the offseason and the winner holding on to a slight hope in the NFC wild-card race. The Cowboys are at home, getting Ezekiel Elliott back and going up against a defense that has been obliterated by injuries, an offense that has no run game or offensive line and a team that just got beat 42-7 at home. Why are they only favored by five? It's fishy and I'll take Russell Wilson in a do-or-die situation.
The Pick: Seahawks +5
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Texans (+9) vs. Steelers
The Steelers are a dramatically better team than the Texans and could easily turn this into a "go squeeze in that Christmas-night conversation with Uncle Steve during the fourth quarter" situation by blowing out Houston. But I think it's a letdown spot for the Steelers, who just lost in brutal fashion to the Patriots at home, will not be getting home-field advantage and will struggle to really get up for a road game against a bad team on Christmas night. Houston hangs around by bottling up Le'Veon Bell and keeps it within a score.
The Pick: Texans +9
Credit: USATSI -
Raiders (+9) at Eagles
The Raiders' slim playoff hopes are still alive, even after nearly being snuffed out by an index card last Sunday night. Donald Penn being out is a major concern against a dangerous Eagles pass rush, but Philly's defense hasn't been great the last two weeks and I could see the Raiders being able to run a little bit with Marshawn Lynch on Christmas night. That will set up Derek Carr for a few shots down the field to keep this close. Eagles win but not in a blowout.
The Pick: Raiders +9
Credit: USATSI
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