Corner Picks, best soccer bets, odds predictions: Juventus's great week continues against Napoli, Everton lose

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I don't remember the last time I was as upset about one of my favorite sports teams losing as I was when Napoli drew with AC Milan Tuesday to get knocked out of the Champions League. It was either when Aston Villa lost the promotion playoff to Fulham 1-0 in 2018 or when the Chicago Bears lost to the Indianapolis Colts in Super Bowl XLI.

It's not exactly a question I was hoping to search for an answer to, but it's one I found myself pondering Tuesday evening as I wallowed in my misery. While I never genuinely expected Napoli to win the Champions League, I assumed Manchester City, Real Madrid, or Bayern Munich would eventually knock them out. Getting knocked out by AC Milan, a team sitting in fifth place in the league Napoli has dominated all season, was disheartening.

Even though Napoli will win Serie A for the first time in three decades, AC Milan will have the fact they knocked them out of the Champions League to hang over their head. It's one thing to lose, it's another to do so while giving a rival more ammunition to use against you. I suppose the only thing I can do to make myself feel better about it is win every bet this weekend. All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Juventus vs. Napoli

Date: Sunday, April 23 | Time: 2:45.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+/Golazo Network (tactics cam)

Speaking of Napoli, let's steer into the depression a bit. OK, no, while I'm about to pick against Napoli, it has nothing to do with how I feel and everything to do with where Napoli are at the moment. This week's loss was not difficult to see coming. Victor Osimhen wasn't sharp after hardly playing the last few weeks due to injury. Napoli was also missing a key midfielder in Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa and center back Kim Min-Jae. Their absences were sharply felt during both Milan's goals. Making matters worse, Napoli lost Matteo Politano and Mario Rui to injury in the loss.

Now, a battered Napoli hit the road to face a Juventus team that's been much better at home than on the road. Juventus have an xG differential of +13.4 in 15 home matches compared to -1.1 in 15 road matches. Napoli have been better on the road than at home this season, but those results came when the team was at full strength. Now, not only are they dealing with physical issues, but I can't help but wonder where they are mentally. Napoli will still win Serie A, but there's a good chance they don't do anything to help their cause in that department this weekend. The Pick: Juventus (+180)

Fulham vs. Leeds United

Date: Saturday, April 22 | Time: 7:30 a.m. ET | Watch: USA

Fulham are a team that had an incredible start to the season, but the numbers always suggested a reckoning was coming. That reckoning came in the form of a five-match losing streak that saw them outscored 12-4. Fulham stopped the bleeding last week with a 3-1 win over Everton, but while the numbers still suggest more reckoning could come, have you seen Leeds lately?

Javi Gracia replaced Jesse Marsch in late February, and Leeds won their first match under him, beating Southampton 1-0. It's been a mess there since. While they picked up two pivotal wins in the battle to avoid relegation, defensively, this team is horrific. They have allowed 21 goals in eight Premier League matches under Gracia, including 11 in the last two. In that time, they have allowed an average of 2.45 xG per match in the last seven. I don't think it's an issue that can be fixed. If Leeds are to survive relegation, they'll have to do so by outscoring teams and hoping those teams below it in the table don't figure things out. The Pick: Over 2.5 (-105)

Crystal Palace vs. Everton

Date: Saturday, April 22 | Time: 10 a.m. ET | Watch: Peacock

Crystal Palace are one of the teams that's run up against Leeds lately, beating them 5-1 two weeks ago. Palace have been in incredible form since bringing Roy Hodgson back and have won three straight Premier League matches, outscoring opponents 9-2. The new-old manager bounce is real. While that win over Leeds has made the attack look more impressive than it is, defensively, the results aren't fluky. Palace have gotten things in order on the back end, leading to a more clinical attack.

Then there's Everton. The good news is Everton have managed six points in their last six matches to climb out of the bottom three, but the bad news is they're only in 17th on goal differential, and have been extremely lucky to get the results they've gotten! Using xG, Everton have been outscored 11.7-7.2 in those six matches. Maybe they'll get lucky again this weekend, but in a match between a team feeling confident against a team playing scared, always take the confident team. Especially when the confident team is at home, and the scared team has won on the road once all season. It's science. The Pick: Crystal Palace (+108)