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CBS Sports' pick for the World Cup Group of Death has been full of surprises. And after two matches each, no team has been eliminated, with all four of Germany, Mexico, Sweden and South Korea still alive.
It all comes down to Wednesday at 10 a.m. ET on the final matchday, as Germany faces South Korea and Mexico takes on Sweden. Here are the standings and what each team needs to do to advance:
Group F suddenly looks a bit different after that late winner...
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1) #MEX
2) #GER
3) #SWE
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Mexico
They can book a spot in the next round with a draw or win. They could even lose and move on, as long as Germany fails to win, or wins but finishes with a smaller goal differential. El Tri will be looking for a point to win the group.
Germany/Sweden
They are in the same boat, and both have the same goal differential and number of goals scored. Sweden or Germany advance with a win combined with a loss or draw by the other. Or, one of them can draw and the other loses, and the team that gets the point moves on.
If they have the same result, it'll come down to tiebreakers. Should Germany win their match by two and Sweden win by one, Germany would advance. Should they win by the same margin (or both draw), whichever team scores the most goals in their final match would advance.
South Korea
South Korea can finish second place with three points with a win over Germany and a loss by Sweden as long as they win a three-way tiebreaker that starts with goal differential. For example, if South Korea beats Germany 2-0 and Mexico beats Sweden 1-0, South Korea would finish second. Then, Sweden and Germany would have three points each, but South Korea would have a goal differential of zero, Sweden would have one of minus-one and Germany would be minus-two.
Chaos scenarios
South Korea and Mexico both win 1-0
All of South Korea, Germany and Sweden would have identical goal differentials (minus-one) and goals scored (two), sending things to the next tiebreaker: points in games played vs. each other. But all three teams would have beaten each other for their three points. Then it's goal differential in games against each other, which would all be zero. Then it's goal scored in games against each other, and that's where South Korea falls out, with only one goal scored in common games to two for the other two teams. If you restart the tiebreakers with just Germany and Sweden, now Germany moves on thanks to their three points against Sweden on Saturday.
Germany and Sweden win 1-0
All of Germany, Sweden and Mexico would then be tied with six points, a plus-one goal differential and three goals scored. Each would have three points in games played against each other and an even goal differential against each other. In the next tiebreaker, Germany and Sweden would have two goals in games between the three teams, while Mexico would only have one. That puts Germany and Sweden through to the knockouts, with Germany getting the top seed thanks to their three points from Saturday.
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