It's a meeting of world football powers, but only one has looked the part recently as Italy gets set to host Germany on Saturday in a 2022-23 UEFA Nations League match. The Italians crashed out of World Cup qualifying with a loss to North Macedonia in a playoff, while Germany had no trouble winning its group to book its ticket to Qatar 2022. The teams have one of the more storied big-game rivalries in world football, meeting five times in the World Cup, including an epic 1970 semifinal dubbed the "Game of the Century." Italy has been floundering since winning Euro 2020 at Wembley Stadium last summer, and it will try to use the home crowd to its advantage Saturday at Renato Dall'Ara Stadium in Bologna against a formidable opening opponent.
Kickoff is set for 2:45 p.m. ET. Germany is the +140 favorite (risk $100 to win $140) on the 90-minute money line in the latest Italy vs. Germany odds. Italy is the +190 underdog, a draw is priced at +240 and the over-under for total goals scored is set at 2.5. Before locking in any Germany vs. Italy picks or UEFA Nations League predictions, you have to see what SportsLine soccer insider Brandt Sutton has to say.
Sutton, a former collegiate soccer player, has been SportsLine's top soccer editor for nearly five years. He has followed soccer closely for much longer and factors in managerial tactics, projected lineups and past performances to make the most-informed decisions possible, keeping his finger on the pulse of the game all over the globe.
Sutton has also been on a roll with his best bets, going 94-72 in his last 166 soccer picks, returning more than $2,400 for $100 bettors.
Now, Sutton has broken down the Italy vs. Germany matchup from every angle and just locked in his UEFA Nations League picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are the betting lines and trends for Germany vs. Italy:
- Italy vs. Germany spread: Germany -0.5
- Italy vs. Germany over-under: 2.5 goals
- Italy vs. Germany money line: Italy +190, Germany +140, Draw +240
- ITA: Gianluigi Donnarumma has 21 clean sheets in 40 starts for the national team
- GER: Manuel Neuer has 11 shutouts in Germany's last 17 competitive games
Why you should back Germany
Die Mannschaft is 8-1-0 in its past nine games, with six clean sheets, and its back line has been tough to crack. Antonio Rudiger is the veteran of a young defense that should also feature 22-year-old Borussia Dortmund-bound Nico Schlotterbeck. Manuel Neuer is as experienced as any goalkeeper in the world, and he allowed 0.93 goals per game for Bayern Munich to lead the German Bundesliga. The Germans went 9-0-1 in their World Cup qualifying group, with a massive 36-4 advantage in goals, while the Italians scored just 13 goals in their eight matches.
The disparity in goals shows that the Germans have a lot more attacking talent than the Azzurri. Midfielder Thomas Muller is the engine of the attack, and he also is the top international scorer on the squad. He has 43 goals in 112 matches with Germany, and he had eight goals and a league-leading 18 assists for Bayern Munich this season. His Bayern teammates Sergio Gnabry and Leroy Sane are among the many dangerous scoring options, along with Chelsea's Timo Werner and Kai Havertz. Werner has 22 goals and Gnabry has 20 with Die Mannschaft.
Why you should back Italy
The Azzurri will be looking to make a statement that they aren't dead yet. They also will have the home crowd behind them, and that was a huge benefit in the group stage as the team went on to win the Euro 2020 title last summer. Italy's Gianluigi Donnarumma was the first goalkeeper to be named outstanding player in that tournament. The 23-year-old Paris Saint-Germain rising star can keep his team in any game, and he had a 76.4 save percentage and nine clean sheets in 24 starts for PSG. Veteran captain Leonardo Bonucci will lead the defense in front of him.
The team will be without the likes of Ciro Immobile and Federico Chiesa up top, but Italy still has a fair amount of talent on its side. Marco Verratti could be back after missing Wednesday's game, and Jorginho, Nicolo Barella and young players like Davide Frattesi and Sandro Tanali are in the mix for spots. Jorginho was a Ballon d'Or candidate after last season with Chelsea but is trying to regain that form. Andrea Bellotti is the top international scorer for the team with 12 goals in 43 matches, and veteran Lorenzo Insigne (10) could help him spearhead the attack.
How to make Italy vs. Germany picks
Sutton has scrutinized the Germany vs. Italy match from every angle, and he is leaning over on the goal total. He also provides a confident best bet on the winner and has a full breakdown of the match. He's only sharing his expert UEFA Nations League picks at SportsLine.
So, who wins Italy vs. Germany on Saturday? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to see the best bets for the Italy vs. Germany match, all from the soccer expert who has been crushing his soccer picks, and find out.
