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Reigning Premier League champion Manchester City can pull within three points of Arsenal when City host Aston Villa on Sunday at Etihad Stadium. Manchester City entered the weekend with 45 points, five points behind the Gunners. However, Arsenal managed only a draw against Brentford on Saturday, opening the door for Pep Guardiola's side to cut into Arsenal's lead at the top of the EPL table. Meanwhile, Aston Villa entered the week in 11th in the table with 28 points.

Kickoff is at 11:30 a.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists City as the -340 favorites (risk $340 to win $100) in its latest Manchester City vs. Aston Villa odds, with Villa the +900 underdog. A draw is priced at +430. The over/under for total goals scored is 3.5. Before locking in any Aston Villa vs. Manchester City picks or EPL predictions, you need to see what proven SportsLine soccer insider Martin Green has to say.

After working in the sports betting industry for several years, Green became a professional sports writer and handicapper and has covered the game worldwide. Since then, his European soccer picks have been spot-on. Green has generated almost $33,000 for $100 bettors since the 2017-18 season, and he has his finger on the pulse of the game all over the globe.

Now, Green has broken down Manchester City vs. Aston Villa from every angle and just revealed his picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see Green's picks. Here are the betting lines and trends for Aston Villa vs. Manchester City:

  • Manchester City vs. Aston Villa spread: Manchester City -1.5 (-125), Aston Villa +1.5 (-105) 
  • Manchester City vs. Aston Villa over/under: 3.5 goals  
  • Manchester City vs. Aston Villa money line: Manchester City -340, Aston Villa +900, Draw +430
  • MCY: Erling Haaland leads the league in goals (25) 
  • AVL: Ollie Watkins leads team in goals (five) 
  • Manchester City vs. Aston Villa picks: See picks here

Why you should back Manchester City 

Manchester City have one of the world's premier goal scorers in Erling Haaland. In his first season in the EPL, the 22-year-old Haaland leads the league in goals with 25. The former Borussia Dortmund striker has 87 goals since the start of the 2020-21 season. Three weeks ago he recorded a hat trick in a 3-0 win over Wolves.

In addition, Pep Guardiola's men have been excellent at home this season. City have nine wins, one draw and one defeat in 11 games at the Etihad, with 38 goals scored. No team has earned more points at home this season.

Why you should back Aston Villa

The Villans have played better under the leadership of Unai Emery. After Villa won just two of their first 12 EPL matches of the season, the club sacked manager Steven Gerrard and replaced him with Unai Emery. Since then, Villa have five wins, a draw and just two losses in eight games and have climbed to 11th in the table.

In addition, Villa face a City side that has been porous on defense at home this season. In 11 home matches, City have just four clean sheets and have given up 12 goals. That bodes well for a Villa club that has scored 18 goals in its last 11 matches across all competitions.

How to make Manchester City vs. Aston Villa picks

Green has broken down this Premier League match from every angle. He is leaning Over on the goal total and has locked in two total best bets, including one that pays plus-money. You can head to SportsLine to see his EPL analysis and top picks.

So who wins Manchester City vs. Aston Villa on Sunday? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to see which wagers in Aston Villa vs. Manchester City have all the value, all from the soccer expert who has generated almost $33,000 for $100 bettors since the 2017-18 season, and find out.