Remember how we passed the time this offseason by tracking trades and free agent signings in lieu of having actual games to watch?
We may have gotten used to the idea of Jason Heyward and John Lackey as Cubs and Gerardo Parra and Jake McGee as Rockies, but there is more to think about. Players on the move could see their Fantasy value affected by their new environments.
Most obviously, there are the physical surroundings -- the dimensions of a new home ballpark, the altitude and climate -- but the team environment can matter, too. How much lineup protection will they have? Will there be more or fewer run-producing opportunities? Will having a different manager matter?
Not every player who is getting a change of scenery will experience a change in value. As a Pirate, Pedro Alvarez proved he could slug just about anywhere, even at pitcher-friendly PNC Park. Shelby Miller gets a clear lineup upgrade by moving from the Braves to the Diamondbacks, but he's a bigger threat to approach last season's 4.07 xFIP now that he no longer has Turner Field to help curb his ERA. The net impact could be neutral.
However, the dozen players featured here are prime candidates to be affected by their new situations. As we have seen with Josh Donaldson's move from Oakland to Toronto, or in a more negative light, Robinson Cano's transition from the Yankees to the Mariners, a change of scenery can make a big difference. We will begin with the players who stand to gain the most from an offseason move, in descending order of likely impact.
Samardzija can blame his poor 2015 season on more than a tough home park, as he induced swinging strikes at his lowest rate in five years. Still, pitching home games at U.S. Cellular Field didn't help. While Samardzija wasn't especially good on the road (4.61 ERA), he was a disaster at home, allowing a 5.33 ERA and a whopping 1.5 home runs per nine innings. Moving to AT&T Park should go a long way toward making Samardzija worth starting in standard mixed leagues, especially if he avoids tipping pitches, as he claimed he did for nearly all of last season.
Chen is another homer-prone pitcher who will move to more appropriate digs. The fences have come in at Marlins Park, but it should still have a dampening effect on Chen's home run to flyball ratio. Moving from the American League to the National League should also improve Chen's ERA (as well as Samardzija's). Leaving the AL East in particular, where only the Rays have a pitcher-friendly park, should be a boon to Chen.
For the bulk of Lawrie's career with the Blue Jays, he was held back by injuries. When healthy, though, he hit well at Rogers Centre. Lawrie managed to stay healthy during his lone season in Oakland, but his production suffered at O.co Coliseum. Lawrie hit only six of his 16 home runs at home last season, and his batting average was 25 points lower in Oakland than on the road. Moving to U.S. Cellular Field could do wonders for Lawrie's production, and his first 20-home run season could be within reach if he can play in 140-150 games.
Heyward had never called a good hitter's park home before joining the Cubs, and Wrigley Field is a distinct upgrade over Busch Stadium and Turner Field. He has been a slightly better power hitter on the road in his career, so maybe Wrigley's park factors will give Heyward a boost. Even if they don't, hitting in a stacked lineup should provide him with more chances to drive in and score runs. As successful as the Cardinals were in 2015, they ranked just 24th in runs scored.
Though Rodriguez has had success as a closer over the last three seasons, he has had to work around a high home run rate. Going back a little farther -- to 2012 -- Rodriguez has allowed 35 home runs over 243 2/3 innings for a 1.3 HR/9 ratio. All but 22 of those innings came as a member of the Brewers, and those remaining innings were pitched with the Orioles. Nearly two-thirds of those home runs (23, to be exact), were allowed at home, where Rodriguez did not have the benefit of a neutral or pitcher-friendly park, either in Milwaukee or Baltimore. That changes, now that Rodriguez is with the Tigers.
Segura is another player who gets a boost by becoming an ex-Brewer. To be clear, he is not walking into an ideal situation in Arizona, as he may have to split playing time in a crowded middle infield situation. That's still better than facing the loss of his starting role altogether, which seemed inevitable with the Brewers, given the imminent promotion of shortstop prospect Orlando Arcia. Not only does Segura get a better long-term chance to play with the Diamondbacks, but he also gets a better chance to steal under his new manager, Chip Hale. Last season, the Diamondbacks led all major league teams in stolen base attempts.
Last season, Parra enjoyed a mild power breakout, posting a career high .161 Isolated Power with 14 home runs, 36 doubles and five triples. Splitting his time between the Brewers and Orioles, Parra appeared to have benefited from his home parks. His Iso was a mere .139 on the road, but it was a robust .185 at home. With the fences coming in at Coors Field, perhaps we can't expect a surge in home runs, but at the very least, he could be among the major league leaders in doubles and enjoy a higher batting average.
It would be easy to assume that any pitcher moving to Coors Field is due for a downgrade, especially one who has spent his whole career playing home games at Tropicana Field. That shouldn't be the case for Jake McGee. Because the Rockies are offering McGee the chance to close, that alone boosts the lefty's value. Sure, McGee would have likely started the year as the Rays' closer with Brad Boxberger (abdomen) shelved for roughly the first quarter of the season. In Colorado, McGee does have to compete with Jason Motte for the role, but Motte's pitch-to-contact ways and strong flyball tendencies make him an especially volatile option in the high altitude. McGee could win the job and run with it. He has also been effective away from the Trop over his career (2.70 ERA, 1.04 WHIP), and for the most part, he has been able to keep the ball in the park in the tough AL East road venues.
It was much more difficult to find players who appear to be hurt by their offseason moves, but there were a few who didn't luck into an upgrade or lateral move. There are just four players to count down in this group, and we will work our way from the one receiving the least negative impact to the most negative.
Davis relies on home run power for his Fantasy value, so a move from Miller Park to O.co Coliseum would appear to be lethal. He has, in fact, been more powerful in his home games, but Davis has still managed to put up a .222 road Iso over his career. He also averaged 304 feet on flyballs last season, according to BaseballHeatMaps.com, so Davis has the sort of power that could overcome a venue change. However, Davis' new home is bad for BABIPs as well as home runs. He may need some luck just to hit in the .240s this season.
In moving from the Diamondbacks to the Braves, Inciarte loses a manager who embraces the stolen base and gains one who isn't especially prone to an aggressive baserunning approach. He could lose value across every category, simply because the Braves' lineup should afford less protection and fewer run-producing opportunities. The Diamondbacks scored the eighth-most runs in the majors last season, while the Braves finished last, and by a good margin.
Last season, Lackey broke a string of three straight seasons with a HR/9 ratio above 1.0, which in no small part can be attributed to pitching home games at Busch Stadium. Lackey had fairly typical results on the road, compiling a 3.82 ERA with a 1.2 HR/9, but having allowed just eight home runs in 121 1/3 home innings, he finished the year with an overall ERA of 2.77. If regression from an 81 percent strand rate doesn't bring Lackey back to earth, the move to Wrigley Field will. Park factors should override whatever increase in run support the Cubs can offer the 37-year-0ld.
No one's Fantasy value is more adversely affected than Dickerson's by an offseason move. Migrating from Coors Field to Tropicana Field would be tough on any hitter, but Dickerson has been especially dependent on the Coors Effect. His career road Iso of .161 is barely more than half of his home mark (.320), but even more concerning is the differential in his strikeout rates. While a typical hitter strikes out five percent more frequently on the road than at home, Dickerson has struck out more than 50 percent more often away from home. The one thing that could salvage his value in standard mixed leagues is that he gets to visit favorable hitting environments in his AL East road games.
