Note: Don't whiff on this special FanDuel offer. Win your first contest or get your money back (up to $10) to keep playing Try FanDuel now!
What a week for baseball. What a week for bullpens.
In case you've lost count, a full 10 teams have a different closer today than they did a week ago, some as a direct consequence of the trade deadline but others by complete coincidence. That's one-third of the league.
And it's not even counting the Indians or Rangers situations, where the incumbent is very much in jeopardy.
So much turnover in such a short period ... it's enough to make Fantasy owners' heads spin. And while Chris Towers did his part to rank some of the newcomers to the role in his most recent look at the Waiver Wire, that's only scratching the surface of the upheaval.
It's time to consolidate all of these changes (and prospective changes) into one singular reference. And what should that reference include to help you make an informed decision? To me, a closer's worth boils down to two questions:
- How good is he?
- How secure is he in the role?
So that's what I've tried to determine for the 12 bullpens in flux, assigning the current closer, whether newly appointed or barely hanging on, a 1-5 rating (with five being the best) in two areas, "ability" and "security."
Or if you just want a simple ranking, I've provided that for you as well.
Astros
The Astros gave up a bounty for Ken Giles this offseason, making him the presumptive closer, but then they didn't hand him the job right away and he floundered for two months, eventually reaching a point where the Astros didn't even trust him in the eighth inning. He's back to being a bullpen ace, compiling a 1.27 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 14.8 strikeouts per nine innings in 22 appearances since the start of June, but none of the other relievers the Astros have tried in the role have gone anywhere, which keeps him on a short leash.
Angels
It's true Cam Bedrosian has never shown this kind of ability in the majors before, but the former first-rounder always had electric stuff and now seems to have the command to back it up. His season-long numbers actually undersell the breakout a bit. He hasn't allowed a run in his last 25 appearances, compiling a 0.63 WHIP and 12.5 strikeouts per nine innings during that stretch. His biggest problem is that Huston Street's knee injury likely isn't a season-ender, and, well, Mike Scioscia hasn't actually declared him the replacement.
Brewers
Tyler Thornburg was really the only choice to take over as closer after the Brewers traded Jeremy Jeffress and Will Smith on the same day, and his base numbers -- the ERA, WHIP and strikeout rate -- are certainly befitting the role. But he has always had trouble keeping the ball in the park, which gives him some implosion potential. Still, it's not like the Brewers have a real backup plan, not with Corey Knebel still finding his footing in the majors.
Cubs
I'm only including this one for completion's sake. Hector Rondon has been brilliant this season, compiling a 1.70 ERA, 0.71 WHIP and 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings in 43 appearances and still would be closing for most teams, but Aroldis Chapman is the most prized reliever in baseball right now and isn't setting up for anyone.
Diamondbacks
For most of these relievers, the ascension to the closer role was inevitable, but Jake Barrett kind of stumbled into it. The Diamondbacks traded Brad Ziegler and then Tyler Clippard, who were also miscast in the role, and then had to take stock of what they had left. "Guess he'll do" is how I imagine it went down. And maybe he will. By any objective measure, he's the best they have left, but he'd be no better than a seventh-inning guy for most teams. It doesn't mean he can't pile up saves, but he's not a high-probability pickup.
Indians
For all we know, Andrew Miller has already overtaken Cody Allen for the role, but the Indians' silence on the matter would suggest otherwise. After all, giving up the farm for a closer would be a much easier sell to the fan base. It's true the Indians don't have another high-leverage lefty, and Allen is a perfectly fine closer. But with a 1.58 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and 15.2 strikeouts per nine innings, Miller is arguably the best reliever in baseball. I'm guessing the first time Allen blows a lead, this situational stuff is out the window, if not before.
Mariners
Edwin Diaz is the most inexperienced and unproven of the newcomers to the role (it's why he's missing a photo), but he's also potentially the most exciting. His strikeout rate leads all pitchers, and while his WHIP is kind of high, that's mostly because of a bumpy transition to the big leagues in early June. He's a natural for this role, making the decision to move on from Steve Cishek (who hadn't been all that bad) an easy one. But as with any 22-year-old with only two months under his belt, you can never be too sure.
Nationals
This one is pretty straightforward. The Nationals acquired Mark Melancon to be their closer, and after the way he solidified the role in Pittsburgh the last four years, you shouldn't anticipate any hiccups. Yeah, he's not the elite bat-misser that some of these guys are, but he's a control artist who avoids hard contact and is miles better than Jonathan Papelbon at this stage of their careers.
Pirates
How could the Pirates trade their closer when they aren't technically out of it? Well, because they have his clone primed and ready to go. The process wasn't a complete success. This version of Mark Melancon came out throwing left-handed. But Tony Watson has been doing almost the exact some thing in a setup role for almost the exact same length of time. If not for a rejuvenated Neftali Feliz, himself a former closer, behind him, he might be just as trustworthy.
Rangers
General manager Jon Daniels suggested after acquiring Jeremy Jeffress that Sam Dyson would likely remain the Rangers closer, but it's ultimately manager Jeff Banister's call. And even if he's leaning that way, I'm guessing there's a razor-thin margin for error. Dyson is one of the few closers with a lower strikeout rate than Jeffress' 7.1 per nine innings, but Jeffress is considered the better talent of the two. Neither needs strikeouts because of all the ground balls they get, but more contact means more risk. And now Banister has an all-too-convenient fallback.
Royals
Kelvin Hererra has been part of the lock-down trio that has fueled the Royals' recent success, and now with both Greg Holland and Wade Davis sidelined, it's his time to shine in the ninth inning. And this just so happens to be his best season, his across-the-board improvement (particularly in terms of walks and strikeouts) giving him a FIP (1.73) on par with Aroldis Chapman's and Kenley Jansen's. So sure, sit back and enjoy the ride. Just don't get too comfortable -- Davis' right flexor strain isn't necessarily a season-ender.
Yankees
You want to talk FIP? Betances' 1.32 mark is nearly half a run better than any other pitcher's this year. It's a theoretical statistic -- an estimate of what ERA should be based on the ratios most within a pitcher's control -- but it tells you just how dominant Betances is. Between him, Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller, the Yankees were hoarding arguably the three best relievers in baseball, but now that they've been disseminated, they all have a chance to emerge as top-five closers. How anyone would hesitate to pick up one who's on pace for his third straight 130-strikeout season is beyond me.
