Week 5 Rankings: Standard | PPR
We're in the biggest bye week until at least Week 8, with four teams off. And there are some heavy hitters out in Week 5 in the Jaguars, Chiefs, Saints and Seahawks.
Fantasy owners have questions about each of those teams, but at least for one week we can stop worrying about them. Of course, that still leaves 28 NFL teams left to worry about, and we Fantasy players are a worrying sort, so there is still plenty of fodder for us to deal with in Week 5.
Can Todd Gurley break a long one off?
Gurley was a home run hitter last season. He ranked fourth in the NFL in yards of at least 15 yards, and picked up a higher share of his yards on such carries than any other back with at least 164 rushing attempts, at 45.9 percent. Of course, that means that on the 203 carries that did not go for 15-plus yards, Gurley averaged just 2.8 yards per carry -- for context, Adrian Peterson averaged 3.2 YPC when you take out his long runs. Even during his successful rookie season, in other words, Gurley typically struggled to find much room to operate as a rookie. He was a Fantasy star because of his ability to break those long runs off consistently. Unfortunately, through four games, he has just one rush of at least 15 yards, and that one went for just 16. After leading the NFL in ProFootballFocus.com's Breakaway Percentage -- simply the proportion of yards picked up on big runs -- Gurley ranks just 20th among qualified backs this season. Whether Gurley's inability to break off a big run or two so far is the result of defenses stacking the box or just a random bad stretch is an open question, but if you are wondering what is different with Gurley this season, there's your answer.
My recommendation: I can't bring myself to bench a running back with Gurley's big-play ability, especially not one who gets this consistent work. But it may be worth viewing Gurley like the running back version of DeSean Jackson -- a boom-or-bust play who needs to hit a big play to pay off.
Can Tom Brady get Rob Gronkowski going?
Gronkowski was healthy enough to play 39 snaps in Week 4, but was used primarily as a blocker, as he went out on just 15 routes in the game. For context's sake, Gronkowski ran 34 routes per game last season. Gronkowski's hamstring injury is clearly limiting him, given his usage, and it isn't just the absence of Brady that has held him back. Of course, having Brady will always help, especially if Gronkowski can't quite generate the seperation we're used to seeing from him, because Brady is going to have more success fitting balls into tighter windows. We can't just totally write off Gronkowski's ineffectiveness to Brady's absence, but his return isn't going to hurt, either.
My recommendation: If Gronkowski plays, I'm playing him. I'll go down with that ship.
Is this Terrance West's job now?
The Ravens finally found a spark in the running game in Week 4, as West broke away from the pack with 113 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries against the Raiders. It was just the second 100-yard performance of West's career, but it came at an awfully opportune time for him, because rookie Kenneth Dixon is expected to make his NFL debut in Week 5 after recovering from a knee injury. Fantasy players have been waiting for Dixon to be healthy enough to play, mostly because of how mediocre West and the since-released Justin Forsett have been overall. The question is, can West hold on to the job long term? the worst-case scenario would be another running-back by committee.
My recommendation: Dixon should be worked in slowly, making West a solid Fantasy player in Week 5.
Will Brock Osweiler start looking DeAndre Hopkins' way?
The Texans didn't really have any choice but to force the ball Hopkins' way last season, and he was one of the best receivers in Fantasy as a result. Through four games this season, however, he has already failed to reach nine targets in a game three times, one more than his total all of last season. The emergence of Will Fuller has certainly cut into Hopkins' production, but more concerning is the fact that Hopkins has caught just 51.5 percent of the passes thrown his way, down from 57.8 percent last season. Oh, and he has to face a tough-as-nails Vikings defense in Week 5.
My recommendation: It's pretty difficult to justify sitting Hopkins, but it might be another long day for him this Sunday.
Can Melvin Gordon keep this up?
After not finding the end zone once as a rookie, Gordon has already scored six times this season, including twice in Week 4 against the Saints. That has helped cover up for the fact that, quite frankly, he still doesn't look very good. Gordon is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry, actually down from the 3.5 he averaged in his disappointing rookie season. Gordon just hasn't run the ball all that well in his NFL career, and it's not hard to see the bottom falling out here if the touchdowns stop coming. The good news is, he has at least 20 touches in each game since Danny Woodhead went down, so he has volume going for him.
My recommendation: It's hard to bench a running back with this kind of job security in this kind of offense, but Gordon is also an obvious sell-high candidate.
Was Week 3 the start of the Packers' turnaround?
The Packers' offense had been, for more than a year, fairly mediocre before a 34-27 win over the Lions in Week 3. Aaron Rodgers tossed four touchdowns on just 24 pass attempts and averaged 8.5 yards per attempt, his best single-game mark since Week 6 of 2015. Jordy Nelson looks like he is back to being himself, but the rest of the offense still doesn't get you very excited; Randall Cobb's regression has been especially disappointing to see. It is fair to continue to be skeptical that this offense has totally figured things out after their first truly great game in a year.
My recommendation: Nelson and Rodgers are must-starts and you won't be sitting Eddie Lacy even against an improved Giants defense. Beyond that, there isn't much to like about the Packers' offense right now.
Can Jameis Winston get back on track?
The widely held expectation was that, after a decent rookie season, Winston would take a big step forward. And after Week 1, it certainly looked like he had, as he fired four touchdowns and averaged 8.8 yards per attempt in a shootout win over the Falcons. Unfortunately, he has regressed badly since, tossing seven interceptions to just four touchdowns in that span, with a plummeting completion percentage. Part of his struggles may be a lack of secondary options; beyond Mike Evans, there isn't much in Tampa Bay worth throwing to. Austin Seferian-Jenkins is off the team, Vincent Jackson has regressed as he has aged, and Adam Humphries is averaging 10.8 yards per catch as the team's surprise No. 2 option. Still, Winston'ss accuracy and decision-making have left plenty to be desired, and we're getting close to the point where he is droppable.
My recommendation: The Panthers' defense hasn't been great this season, so it's not crazy to give Winston one more chance. If he struggles this week, you'll have no problem dropping him with the bye on the way in Week 6.
Can Latavius Murray earn the trust back?
The Raiders seem to have had one eye on the door all season long when it comes to Murray, a former sixth-round pick who can be a free agent at year's end. Murray has been productive for the Raiders, rushing for 1,066 yards last season and averaging 4.3 yards per carry for his career. However, they clearly aren't particularly invested in him at this point, and he has touched the ball just 21 times over the last two weeks as reports have emerged that the Raiders are planning on giving DeAndre Washington more playing time. That didn't happen in Week 4, but with a foot injury very much throwing Murray's status for Week 5 into doubt, Washington could get his shot on Sunday. On the other hand, he played just 10 snaps in Week 4 -- five fewer than Jalen Richard, who has impressed in his own right -- so Washington is by no means guaranteed to be the work horse this weekend.
My recommendation: If Murray sits, you have to think Washington is worth a play, though Richard will be involved as well.
