One way or another, Suns guard Goran Dragic is going to be in a better place to live up to his Fantasy upside by 3 p.m. Thursday. Whether that is as a member of an Isaiah Thomas-less Suns team or, as seems more likely at this point, on another roster, Dragic should have more Fantasy appeal by tomorrow afternoon.
However, not all potential landing spots are created equal. Between various media reports over the last 24 hours, seven teams have been mentioned as possible trade destinations for Dragic by the deadline. That nearly one-fourth of the league is interested in Dragic comes as little surprise, though Fantasy players who have Dragic on their roster will be rooting for some teams more than others. Below are all the teams specifically mentioned as potential landing spots, ranked by how desirable they would be for Dragic's Fantasy value.
7. New York Knicks
29th in pace, 29th in points per game
Incumbent point guard: Jose Calderon
The Knicks pretty desperately need an infusion of talent, and Dragic would immediately be their best off-the-dribble creator. Any concerns about his role or usage would disappear immediately when Carmelo Anthony decides to undergo season-ending surgery on his knee. So, all good, right?
Well, not so much. According to Stats.NBA.com, only one team has had a lower percentage of their possessions end with a ball handler finishing on a pick and roll, and they are only 20th for possessions ending with a big man on the pick and roll. The Knicks have a need for Dragic, but the rigidity of the Triangle offense would seem to be a bad fit for Dragic's skill set. Dragic is one of the best pick-and-roll guards in the league and is a terror in transition, where he ranks fourth in the league in points scored; the Knicks are 29th in transition opportunities. Personnel dictates these things to an extent, but the Knicks' plodding, 90's era offense seems like a bad stylistic fit for Dragic's talents.
6. Miami Heat
30th in pace, 28th in points per game
Incumbent point guard: Norris Cole
The Heat's point guard situation is almost assuredly the worst in the league this season, though that is at least partially because their point guard is actually a shooting guard. If Dragic is upset about having to split touches with Isaiah Thomas and Eric Bledsoe, how is he going to feel about sharing the court with Dwyane Wade, who ranks third in the league in usage rate?
Of course, he might not end up sharing the court all that much with Wade, whose constant injury concerns make him hard to rely on. And the presence of Dragic would certainly let the Heat lighten Wade's load considerably, so that number isn't necessarily indicative of what Dragic's role would be. Still, though Heat coach Eric Spoelstra is well-regarded as a forward-thinking offensive mind, Miami's offense has been a plodding mess for much of the season. This is a better fit than New York, but the presence of Wade and Chris Bosh limits what Dragic's upside might be.
5. Indiana Pacers
22nd in pace, 23rd in points per game
Incumbent point guard: George Hill
Listing Hill as the incumbent point guard is a bit misleading, because the duo could almost certainly thrive playing next to each other. Both have the size and quickness to guard either guard spot, and Hill has proven more than happy to serve as an outlet option rather than a ball-dominant point guard throughout his career. This certainly wouldn't be a bad fit for Dragic, though the Pacers' reliance on post-ups with their big men rather than pick and rolls could limit his assist opportunities somewhat. The looming return of Paul George in March also muddles things somewhat, but Dragic would be the unquestioned offensive centerpiece for at least a month here.
4. Houston Rockets
4th in pace, 7th in points per game
Incumbent point guard: Patrick Beverley
Beverley might not be happy about a move to a bench role, but he's also nearly a polar opposite of Thomas, in that he rarely has or needs the ball in his hands to be happy. That isn't where the competition for touches and shots would come from for Dragic, though; MVP candidate James Harden is. Harden is eight in usage rate in the league, but that overstates his ball dominance at least a little, as he ranks just 23rd in the league in touches per game per Stats.NBA.com, behind the likes of Mike Conley and Trey Burke. Beverley still comes out in the top-50 in touches overall, and just outside of the top-50 in time of possession overall, so there is still room for another ball-handler next to Harden anyways.
Dragic doesn't sound too keen on going back to Houston, however, and that seems like a key consideration at this point. The Rockets have a perception of treating players like assets first, and Dragic has reportedly expressed his lack of interest in going back. We've already seen Dragic's numbers dip while sharing the playmaking load in a place he isn't happy to be, so we have to be wary of him landing in a similar spot post-trade.
3. Sacramento Kings
9th in pace, 16th in points per game
Incumbent point guard: Darren Collison
It's hard to know exactly what the Kings would do with Collison if they traded for Dragic, who has been a big -- and rare -- win for them since signing. However, there is a lot to like about Dragic's fit in Sacramento, based on what Collison has done so far. Collison is 11th in the league in time of possession and touches per game, and has finished 23.8 percent of his possessions in transition, one of the 25-highest numbers in the league.
The Kings also just added George Karl as coach, a coach well-known for his fast-paced, point-guard friendly offenses. Ty Lawson emerged as a star under Karl, and Dragic might easily get back to the 20-point, six-assist level he posted a year ago. The only road block would be the presence of DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay, who rank in the top-5 and top-25 in usage, respectively. However, Thomas was a borderline top-10 Fantasy guard playing with them last season, so that isn't necessarily a non-starter.
2. Los Angeles Lakers
12th in pace, 20th in points per game
Incumbent point guard: Jordan Clarkson
The long-term fit might be a bit awkward if Dragic ends up in Los Angeles, what with the presence of a free-falling but still ball-dominant Kobe Bryant coming back next season from his latest season-ending injury. However, for the rest of the season, this would be a boon for Dragic. Sure, he might not have many -- any? -- starting-caliber NBA players around him for the duration of the season, so he would have to do a lot of the heavy lifting.
However, the Lakers play fast enough that Dragic wouldn't be stuck in a bad situation like he would be in New York, and he wouldn't have to share the ball with anyone who might even think about dominating it. A better offensive coach might vault the Lakers to the top of my wish list, which is why their mortal rivals come up one spot ahead of them.
1. Boston Celtics
3rd in pace, 11th in points per game
Incumbent point guard: Marcus Smart
Smart is one of the key pieces to Boston's future, but he's not exactly the ball-dominant sort of guard yet. In fact, he's probably not even a point guard, in as much as that designation even means anything in today's fluid NBA landscape. Still, this seems like the kind of fit a brilliant coach like Stevens can make work, and Dragic could really work magic in Boston.
The Celtics have a slew of interesting assets and pieces, but nothing even close to resembling a centerpiece. Dragic would give them that, and you can be sure Stevens would view him as such. Dragic is a perfect fit for Steven's offense, too, as a speedy point guard who can shoot the three, get to the basket and get out in transition. The Celtics have a handful of useful big men to throw into pick and rolls with Dragic, and rank right behind the Suns in pace.
Bright young coach? Check. Fast-paced offense well-suited to Dragic's talents? Check. If you saw what Dragic did without Eric Bledsoe around last season, the thought of him landing somewhere like Boston has to have you salivating. Let's hope Danny Ainge can pull off some magic before Thursday.
