Kyle Larson did not crack the top 10 at the Shriners Children's 500 last week, but he is still atop the NASCAR Cup Series standings heading into the 2024 Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET. Larson (21-4) is priced behind Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell, who are 5-1 co-favorites in the 2024 Food City 500 odds. The previous three years of NASCAR at Bristol spring races were run on dirt, but they will return to concrete this week. Larson has the best average finishing position at Bristol (2.7) since 2021, leading 229 laps during that span.
Hamlin has three straight top-10 finishes on Bristol concrete, while Bell is coming off a win in Phoenix last week. Which drivers should you include in your 2024 Food City 500 bets? Before scouring the 2024 Food City 500 starting lineup and making any 2024 NASCAR at Bristol predictions, be sure to see the latest 2024 Food City 500 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
McClure's model was red-hot in 2023, nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two of the playoff races as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 in Las Vegas.
Then it called its first winner of the 2024 season with Larson in Las Vegas again two weeks ago, scoring a 21-5 payout for SportsLine subscribers. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 16 winners since 2021, including nine last year alone. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2024 Food City 500 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Bristol leaderboard.
Top 2024 Food City 500 predictions
For the 2024 Food City 500, the model is high on Kyle Busch, even though he's a 15-1 longshot in the latest 2024 NASCAR at Bristol odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Busch has finished 20th or worse in his last three races at Bristol, with zero laps led during that stretch.
However, he has been highly successful at this track throughout his career, posting seven top-four finishes in an eight-race stretch prior to 2021. He won three races at Bristol during that span and added a pair of runner-up finishes. Busch has eight wins at this track in his career, ranked fifth in NASCAR history, so the model thinks he has too much value to pass on this week.
Another massive shocker: Christopher Bell, one of the top Vegas favorites, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in the 2024 Food City 500 starting lineup. Bell was a winner at Bristol Motor Speedway on the dirt last spring and only one of his seven career wins in the NASCAR Cup Series has come on a short track.
Bell has led 330 laps in the last two races on concrete at Bristol, but failed to take the checkered flag on both occasions and the model doesn't see value on Bell as one of the betting favorites. Even with Joe Gibbs Racing's success at Bristol historically, Fords have won three of the last five races there on concrete. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.
How to make 2024 NASCAR at Bristol picks
The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2024 NASCAR Bristol odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the Food City 500 2024, and which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 NASCAR at Bristol odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2024 NASCAR at Bristol leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 16 winners.
2024 Food City 500 odds, drivers, lineup
See full NASCAR at Bristol picks at SportsLine
Denny Hamlin 5-1
Christopher Bell 5-1
Kyle Larson 21-4
Ryan Blaney 11-1
Brad Keselowski 12-1
William Byron 12-1
Tyler Reddick 12-1
Chris Buescher 12-1
Ty Gibbs 12-1
Kyle Busch 15-1
Ross Chastain 20-1
Joey Logano 20-1
Chase Elliott 20-1
Martin Truex Jr. 22-1
Erik Jones 40-1
Bubba Wallace 40-1
Alex Bowman 45-1
Michael McDowell 50-1
Chase Briscoe 60-1
Noah Gragson 60-1
Carson Hocevar 70-1
Daniel Suarez 80-1
Josh Berry 100-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 100-1
Austin Dillon 150-1
John Hunter Nemechek 175-1
A.J. Allmendinger 200-1
Austin Cindric 200-1
Corey Lajoie 200-1
Ryan Preece 250-1
Todd Gilliland 500-1
Daniel Hemric 750-1
Zane Smith 1000-1
Justin Haley 1000-1
Harrison Burton 1000-1
Kaz Grala 2500-1
