The Kentucky Wildcats and Houston Cougars saw their Final Four hopes dashed in heartbreaking fashion last season. One of them is assured of reaching the 2019 NCAA Tournament Elite 8 when they meet Friday at 9:59 p.m. ET in a Midwest Regional semifinal in Kansas City. The 2-seed Wildcats (29-6) and 3-seed Cougars (33-3) have used a similar combination of sterling defense and rebounding to reach the Sweet 16. The Wildcats defeated stubborn Wofford by six in the second round, while the Cougars rolled 74-59 against Ohio State. On Friday, the Wildcats are 2.5-point sportsbook favorites and the over-under for total points scored is 133.5 in the latest Kentucky vs. Houston odds. Before you make your Kentucky vs. Houston picks or Sweet 16 predictions, listen to what SportsLine senior analyst Josh Nagel has to say.
A Nevada-based expert with more than 20 years of experience in the sports wagering industry, Nagel specializes in handicapping college athletics. He's had another standout season in college basketball, hitting better than 60 percent of his point-spread picks for SportsLine members heading into the NCAA Tournament 2019. Anyone who has followed him is way up.
What's more, he has a keen eye for the tendencies of these two programs, which includes a 14-7 mark on picks involving Kentucky over the past two seasons. For example, he told SportsLine members that Kentucky (-2.5) was likely in for all it could handle against rival Tennessee in the SEC Tournament semifinals. The Volunteers battled back from a late seven-point deficit to prevail 82-78, and anyone who followed Nagel's advice booked a winner.
Now, Nagel has locked in on Kentucky vs. Houston from every angle and released a confident point-spread pick that is only available at SportsLine.
He knows the Wildcats are eager to return to the Elite 8 after they were denied that opportunity last year by an ultra-efficient Kansas State club. Kentucky last reached a regional final two seasons ago and hasn't made the Final Four since 2015.
The Wildcats boast their usual class of blue-chip talent, but also have more experience than in recent seasons under coach John Calipari. Graduate transfer Reid Travis joined the club following two all-conference seasons at Stanford, while P.J. Washington passed on the NBA to return for his sophomore season.
Washington leads the team in scoring but has missed the first two NCAA Tournament games with a lingering foot injury. He is listed as questionable Friday. Meanwhile, Travis has been a key factor in the first two tournament wins, putting up 20 points and 32 rebounds combined while recording a double-double against Wofford.
Kentucky's defense held a dangerous Wofford team to just 37.5 percent from the field while winning the rebounding battle 36-30. Freshman Ashton Hagans contributed 12 points, five rebounds and four assists.
But just because the Wildcats have been playing lights-out on defense doesn't mean they'll cover the Kentucky vs. Houston spread on Friday.
The Cougars bring an experienced roster and swarming defense that ranks No. 7 in the country, holding opponents to 61 points per game. They were left heartbroken last year after dominating Michigan most of the way, only to see Jordan Poole's shot from just inside half-court find the net as time expired. But they responded with an even stronger season that included a regular-season AAC championship and their first Sweet 16 berth in 35 years.
Houston has also covered eight of its last 10 non-conference games and nine of its last 12 contests at neutral sites.
We can tell you Nagel is leaning over, and he's also identified a critical x-factor that makes one side of the spread a must-back. He's only sharing what it is, and who to back, over at SportsLine.
Who wins Houston vs. Kentucky? And what critical x-factor causes one side of the spread to hit hard? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Houston vs. Kentucky spread you need to jump all over Friday, all from the proven expert who is hitting nearly 70 percent of his Wildcats picks.
