The Kentucky Wildcats host the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in a non-conference clash on Saturday afternoon at Rupp Arena. Kentucky enters this game after a disappointing 1-3 start, with the Wildcats losing the last three games. Notre Dame is 1-2 on the season, though both losses came to ranked opponents.
Tip-off is on CBS at noon ET in Lexington. William Hill Sportsbook lists the Wildcats as a seven-point home favorites, down half a point from the opening line. The over-under, or total number of points expected, is set at 144 in the latest Kentucky vs. Notre Dame odds. Before finalizing any Notre Dame vs. Kentucky picks, check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of almost $2,700 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. It's also off to a fast start in the 2020-21 season, going 5-1 on all its top-rated picks and returning over $400. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Kentucky vs. Notre Dame. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the college basketball lines and trends for Notre Dame vs. Kentucky:
- Kentucky vs. Notre Dame spread: Kentucky -7
- Kentucky vs. Notre Dame over-under: 144 points
- KY: The Wildcats are 8-9 against the spread in the last 17 non-conference games
- ND: The Irish are 5-7 against the spread in the last 12 road games
Why Kentucky can cover
Led by a bevy of impressive freshmen, Kentucky has the talent edge in this matchup. That manifests most on the defensive end, where the Wildcats rank in the top 20 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Kentucky is holding opponents to just 44.5 percent effective field goal shooting, with a 26.1 percent mark allowed from 3-point range. The Wildcats are one of the biggest, most athletic teams in the country, which helps to explain the team's 14.1 percent block rate and 73.5 percent defensive rebound rate, both of which rate as above-average so far this season.
Offensively, Kentucky hasn't been quite as impressive, but the Wildcats do put pressure on the offensive glass, grabbing 37.2 percent of their own misses. Notre Dame's defense is also less than stellar in creating havoc, posting only a 12.6 percent turnover rate, which could allow Kentucky's young perimeter players to get comfortable in a positive way.
Why Notre Dame can cover
To this point in 2020-21, the Irish have been led offensively by a trio of junior standouts. Prentiss Hubb leads the team with 22.3 points per game, and he is also averaging 5.3 assists and 5.0 rebounds per contest. Nate Laszewski and Dane Goodwin are also contributing at a high level, with Laszewski averaging 15.0 points and 9.7 rebounds per game and Goodwin averaging 14.3 points and 7.0 rebounds per contest.
Offensively, Notre Dame ha excellent ball security, turning the ball over on only 14.5 percent of possessions, and the Irish a tremendous shooting team, converting 77.4 percent at the free throw line and a blistering 44.1 percent from 3-point distance. On the defensive side, Notre Dame is holding its opponents to just 46.2 percent shooting on 2-point attempts and, against a Kentucky team that is struggling (25.8 percent) from 3-point range, that could be an X-factor.
How to make Kentucky vs. Notre Dame picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, with neither team projected to have a scorer reach 14 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 70 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Notre Dame vs. Kentucky? And which side of the spread that cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Kentucky vs. Notre Dame spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up nearly $2,700 on its college basketball picks the last four years, and find out.
