The Central Florida Knights look to wrap up a perfect regular season for the second year in a row when they host the Memphis Tigers for the 2018 AAC Championship game on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET. In the latest Memphis vs. UCF odds, the Knights are favored by 2.5 points, down from -5.5 to open, with the over-under at 64 points, down from 70. UCF's closest game all season came against Memphis, and the Knights edged the Tigers 62-55 in double-OT for the 2017 AAC Championship. With another thriller likely on the way today, you'll want to see what the SportsLine Projection Model is saying before making any of your own Memphis vs. UCF picks.

The model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. Over the past three years, this proprietary computer model has generated a jaw-dropping $4,210 profit for $100 bettors on its top-rated point-spread picks.

The model made some huge calls on Rivalry Week, including nailing Ohio State's outright upset of Michigan as a 4.5-point underdog. And when it comes to all top-rated picks, the model has been red-hot, entering Championship Week on a blistering 43-23 run. Anybody who has followed it is way, way up.

Now it has simulated Memphis vs. UCF 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that model has a lean toward the over, but it has a strong against the spread pick, saying one side hits in over 55 percent of simulations. You can only see that one at SportsLine.

The computer knows no team has held UCF to fewer than 31 points. Overall, the Knights are averaging 43.1 points and 531.5 yards per game, ranking No. 8 in scoring and No. 5 in yards. They'll look to keep the train going on Saturday with sophomore Darriel Mack at QB after star McKenzie Milton (knee) was lost for the season last Saturday. While Milton is one of the top passing QBs in the nation, Milton adds even more of a dual-threat dimension to the offense. In limited action, Mack has thrown for 174 yards and rushed for 281.

UCF can certainly lean on the run game. Greg McCrae is averaging a robust 9.0 yards per carry (904 yards on 99 carries). The Knights' top three RBs, McCrae, Adrian Killins Jr. and Taj McGowan, have combined for 1,990 yards and 19 TDs on 6.7 yards per carry. UCF ranks 77th in total defense but is a solid 18th in points given up (19.5). 

But just because UCF has plenty of options on the ground and is motivated to close out another perfect regular season, doesn't mean it will cover in the AAC Championship 2018.

The Tigers led the Knights 30-17 at halftime on Oct. 13 before UCF rallied for a 31-30 victory. And while the Knights' offense gets all the headlines, the Tigers actually score more points per game, at 43.8 per game. They are also averaging over 530 yards per game on offense.

Quarterback Brady White has thrown for 2,947 yards and 25 TDs, but Memphis is built around a dominant rushing attack that averages 276 yards per contest. Running back Darrell Henderson has gained 1,699 yards with 19 touchdowns, ranking No. 2 in the nation in both categories. He'll lead the charge against a UCF defense that ranks a dismal 109th in the nation in rush defense.

So, which side of the Memphis vs. UCF spread hits in over 55 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine to see the strong Memphis vs. UCF picks, all from the model that has returned over $4,000 in profit to $100 bettors over the last three seasons, and find out.