The 11th-ranked Louisville Cardinals should be focused on Thursday night when they host the ACC-rival Virginia Cavaliers in a college football Week 11 matchup. The Cardinals (8-1, 5-1) have a clear path to the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game after a 34-3 victory against Virginia Tech last Saturday. Still, they can't look ahead to a potential showdown with No. 4 Florida State, even if the Cavaliers (2-7, 1-4) come in on a two-game losing streak. Virginia won the most recent meeting in Louisville, rallying for a 34-33 victory in 2021. But the Cardinals got their revenge with a 24-17 victory in Charlottesville last season.
Thursday's kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky. The latest Virginia vs. Louisville odds list the Cardinals as 20.5-point favorites, according to the SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 50. Before making any Louisville vs. Virginia picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a stunning profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Virginia vs. Louisville and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine to see the model's CFB picks. Here are several college football odds and trends for Louisville vs. Virginia:
- Virginia vs. Louisville spread: Cardinals -20.5
- Virginia vs. Louisville over/under: 50 points
- Virginia vs. Louisville money line: Cavaliers +825, Cardinals -1449
- UVA: Is 5-3 ATS in its past eight games as a road underdog.
- LOU: Is 10-1 ATS as the home team since the start of 2022.
- Virginia vs. Louisville picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Virginia vs. Louisville live stream: fubo (try for free)
Why Louisville can cover
The Cardinals and Florida State appear to be the class of the ACC, as they are the only teams ranked in the top four in scoring on both offense and defense. The Cardinals offense is fourth at 32.9 points per game, while Virginia's is 12th at 23.1. On defense, Louisville is second (16.3) and UVA is last (32.4). Only an uncharacteristic three-turnover day has kept the Cardinals from being unbeaten. They are plus-5 in turnover margin for the season, while Virginia is minus-6.
Louisville has outscored two opponents 57-3 since the loss and held the Hokies to 140 yards last week. The Cardinals rushed for 231 despite top rusher Jawhar Jordan (881 yards, 7.1 per carry) being limited by a hamstring injury. Isaac Guerendo took his opportunity and rushed for 146 yards and three touchdowns. The Cavaliers allow 180 yards per game on the ground (115th in FBS). Louisville is on a 10-0 run at home, while UVA is 2-8 on the road over the same span. See which team to pick here.
Why Virginia can cover
The Cavaliers have lost four games this season by three points or fewer, the most in FBS. They also pulled off a huge 31-27 road upset against then-No. 10 North Carolina three weeks ago. Virginia then took Miami to overtime on the road before falling 29-26. Quarterback Tony Muskett, who led the Cavs in those games and their victory against William & Mary, is recovering from an ankle injury but could be back. If he isn't ready, freshman Anthony Colandrea would get the nod.
Colandrea has started four games and has at least 200 passing yards and 30 rushing in his past two. Malik Washington should have a big night, as the senior is third in FBS with 1,077 receiving yards and has topped 100 in seven of the past eight games. Running backs Perris Jones and Kobe Pace have combined for 892 total yards and an average of 4.3 yards per carry. The defense will aim to harass Jack Plummer, who has thrown eight interceptions and been sacked 18 times. See which team to pick here.
How to make Virginia vs. Louisville picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 56 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Louisville vs. Virginia, and which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has notched a profit of well over $2,000 on its top-rated college football spread picks, and find out.
