The No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes and seventh-ranked Michigan State Spartans both have College Football Playoff aspirations, and they'll battle Saturday to remain in the hunt. The host Buckeyes (9-1, 7-1) have won five straight against their Big Ten rivals, and they come in on an eight-game win streak and boast the nation's top offense. Michigan State (9-1, 6-1) is still recovering from its loss to Purdue and is hoping to find the form that led to a huge victory against Michigan three weeks ago. The Spartans rebounded from their loss to beat Maryland 40-21 last Saturday, while the Buckeyes crushed Purdue 59-31.
Kickoff from Ohio Stadium is set for noon ET. The Buckeyes are the 19-point favorites in the latest Michigan State vs. Ohio State odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over-under for total points is set at 69.5. Before making any Ohio State vs. Michigan State picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Week 12 of the 2021 season on a 36-23 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has locked in on Ohio State vs. Michigan State and just revealed its picks and CFB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the CFB odds and betting lines for Michigan State vs. Ohio State:
- Ohio St. vs. Michigan St. spread: Buckeyes -19
- Ohio St. vs. Michigan St. over-under: 69.5 points
- Ohio St. vs. Michigan St. moneyline: Buckeyes -1000, Spartans +650
- OSU: It is 14-8-1 ATS in 23 Big Ten games since 2019
- MSU: It is 9-14 ATS in its past 23 conference games
Why the Buckeyes can cover
The favorite has covered the spread in four straight meetings, and OSU is 5-3 ATS after a win this season. The OSU offense features QB C.J. Stroud, RB TreVeyon Henderson and a trio of excellent receivers. It averages 46.3 points and more than 550 yards per game, both tops in the nation. The MSU defense is particularly vulnerable against the pass (329.9 yards per game, 130th), and Stroud has 3,036 passing yards and 30 TDs. Receivers Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave have combined for 20 TDs, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 1,027 yards (17.4 per catch).
Henderson has 1,035 rushing yards (7.3 per carry) and 14 TDs on the ground. Stroud also is rarely sacked, going down seven times in nine starts, and has thrown just five interceptions. The Buckeyes are plus-9 in turnover margin, with the defense coming up with 17 takeaways and eight players getting interceptions. The unit also is tied for sixth in the nation with 34 sacks, with five players posting at least three, led by Haskell Garrett's 4.5. Ohio State has won the past four meetings by at least 20 points, including a 52-12 shellacking in East Lansing last year.
Why the Spartans can cover
MSU is 4-2 ATS against ranked opponents over the past two seasons and is 7-1-2 ATS overall this season. An offense led by Walker has proven to be dangerous. He has an FBS-best 1,473 yards and 17 TDs on the ground, averaging 6.5 yards per carry. Quarterback Payton Thorne also can have big days, and he has 2,460 yards and 17 TD passes. He faces the nation's 108th-ranked passing defense (261.5 yards per game), and he has the weapons in receivers Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor to exploit it.
Reed has 829 yards (18.4 per catch) and seven TDs, while Nailor has 587 (18.9) and six scores. Running back Connor Heyward (22 receptions) and tight end Tyler Hunt (12) are valuable outlets. The MSU defense has struggled to stop opponents, but it hasn't been giving up a ton of points. It is 41st in the nation in allowing 22.5 points per game, while the offense scores 34.6 (26th). The Spartans also have 32 sacks, tied for 14th-most in FBS, led by Jacub Panasiuk and Jeff Pietrowski with 5.5 apiece. The road team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
How to make Ohio State vs. Michigan State picks
The model is going under on the total, projecting 62 combined points. It has also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model's Michigan State vs. Ohio State pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Saturday's Ohio State vs. Michigan State Big Ten matchup? And which side of the spread is hitting more than 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Michigan State vs. Ohio State spread to back Saturday, all from the advanced model on a 36-23 run on its top-rated college football side picks, and find out.