Penn State: Best-case, worst-case scenarios for 2012

Penn State coach Bill O'Brien will have a first-year like no other coach in the history of college football this fall. Not only does he have to erase the stench of the Jerry Sandusky scandal from State College, he must be totally transparent as he tries to change the direction of a program under heavy NCAA sanctions.

(Video courtesy GoPSUTV)

Penn State coach Bill O’Brien will have a first-year like no other coach in the history of college football this fall. Not only does he have to erase the stench of the Jerry Sandusky scandal from State College, he must be totally transparent as he tries to change the direction of a program under heavy NCAA sanctions.

The Nittany Lions are banned from postseason play but still have talent on the roster and the chance to have an impact on the Big Ten standings.

Best-case scenario: The Nittany Lions open with an impressive win over Ohio on Sept. 1 in front of a sell-out crowd that signals a turning point for the team. Senior QB Matthew McGloin overcomes his lack of arm strength by finally making good decisions with precision passing on short crossing routes. Sophomore running back Bill Belton also has a breakout season, making fans forget about incumbent RB Silas Redd transferring to Southern Cal. They dynamic offense and talented defense, led by linebacker Gerald Hodges and Jordan Hill guides the team to an 8-4 record with wins over rivals Ohio State and Wisconsin. The successful season doesn’t end in a bowl game but convinces key players and recruits to remain with the Nittany Lions.

Worst-case scenario: Ohio shocks Penn State at home in front of a sell-out crowd. From there, the wheels come off as McGloin never develops past a mediocre starter and the defense falls to pieces in first-year defensive coordinator Tim Roof’s system. Blowout defeats to Ohio State, Nebraska and Wisconsin deflate the fans in a season that ends with a 3-9 record. This causes a mass exodus of players transferring after the season as the team also loses its top recruits to other schools.

Most likely scenario: The Nittany Lions get off to a fast start with a 4-0 start against the Bobcats, Virginia, Navy and Temple. From there, the team struggles in Big Ten play as it takes time to adjust to O’Brien’s scheme. Penn State finishes with a 7-5 record but fails to upset any of the marquee teams in the conference.

For more up-to-the-minute news and analysis from Big Ten bloggers Dave Carey and Mike Singer, follow @CBSSportsBigTen.