Though this week's AT&T Byron Nelson is rife with stars, predicting how a tournament being hosted at a new venue is going to play out can be incredibly difficult. TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas, should play wide open, long and -- unless there is extreme weather -- fairly easy.
We'll take that description and marry it to what players in this field have been up to recently to try and come up with a few solid wagers this week before next week's big-time event at the PGA Championship. I normally give extra weight to the last few months' of ball-striking for a given field, but I bumped that up a little bit more this time around because of the unknowns with TPC Craig Ranch.
Here are four of our best bets for this week's AT&T Byron Nelson.
1. Doug Ghim over Carlos Ortiz (-105): I'm a sucker for Ghim, and for good reason, too. Since March 1, only five golfers in this field have been better than him from tee to green, and they're all big names (Daniel Berger, Bryson DeChambeau, Jordan Spieth, Jason Day and Sergio Garcia). But this is also about fading Ortiz, who has been pretty bad over the last few months despite a hot putter. He's missed the cut in four of his last six starts.
2. Scottie Scheffler top 20 (-120): This is a bit of a feeling on my part, but it's backed by some decent evidence. Scheffler is 11th in this field since March 1 in terms of total strokes gained, and that does not include his torrid run at the WGC-Match Play event where he finished second. He has top 20s at the Masters, WGC-Workday Championship, Genesis Invitational and Phoenix Open over the last few months. I don't know that there's need for extra motivation, but if he needs it, winning his first PGA Tour event in Dallas would be pretty sweet.
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3. Keith Mitchell top 20 (+240): He's been driving it like a stallion, and has two top 20s in his last three starts. Driver should (should!) be disproportionately useful this week at TPC Craig Ranch. This one got the fewest of my nuggets, but I'm bullish on him after how he went at it with Rory McIlroy in last week's loss at the Wells Fargo Championship.
4. Jon Rahm over Hideki Matsuyama and Scottie Scheffler (+120): I'm a hard fade on Matsuyama, who has not played since the Masters, which means I'm essentially getting Rahm heads up against Scheffler at +120. I'll take that at any event on any course at any time.
5. Bryson DeChambeau over Jordan Spieth and Matthew Fitzpatrick (+138): DeChambeau has top 10s in six of his last eight stroke-play starts on the PGA Tour (that are not named the Masters), and only Berger has been better from tee to green since the beginning of March. This is a bit of a fade of Spieth as well (he has not played since the Masters) and a nod to DeChambeau's ability to score (4th on Tour in birdie or better percentage).