PGA Tour events with smaller fields tend to eliminate value when it comes to determining top 10s or winners. The flip side, however, is that they almost always bring the best players and biggest names into matchups -- like what's set this week for the Tournament of Champions.
Sixteen of the top 20 in the world will tee it up at Kapalua for an $8 million purse to kick off the year, and there are plenty of trends, numbers and data to dive into. Let's have a look now at the five best bets I've found ffrom this week's Tournament of Champions field. Odds provided via Caesars Sportsbook.
1. Talor Gooch top-20 finish (-175): This number is a direct result of a relatively small field, but Gooch was quietly a monster in the fall with five top-15 finishes in six starts. Though the degree of difficulty is higher here, he has the game -- specifically with his iron play -- to rise to the occasion.
2. Bryson DeChambeau top-10 finish (-110): There's no value here, obviously, but DeChambeau can let it absolutely rip on these wide-open fairways. I outlined this in my tournament preview, but he can be so mediocre elsewhere and still finish in the top 10. He has two seventh-place finishes in three starts here, but last year was his first outing in the post-speed gain portion of his career. He decimated the rest of the field off the tee, lost strokes in the three other categories and still finished T7. That's crazy, but it's also why he's a good bet to finish in the top 10.
3. Talor Gooch over Cameron Davis and Lucas Herbert (+100): Can you tell I like Gooch this week? I also don't really like Herbert, who I think will struggle in an event where success is so often dependent on approach play. He's not very good from tee to green -- negative strokes gained over the last 12 months -- so it feels a little like Gooch vs. Davis heads-up with Gooch at +100, which I can buy into.
Rick Gehman is joined by Kyle Porter, Greg DuCharme and Mark Immelman to preview the 2022 Sentry Tournament of Champions. Follow & listen to The First Cut on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
4. Jordan Spieth over Brooks Koepka (-125): Koepka has just one good showing in three starts on this course, and that was a T3 back in 2016 when ... Jordan Spieth beat him by nine. I don't love the number here, but Spieth rocks on this course (2.8 strokes gained in 16 rounds), and I'm also not buying that Koepka is going to show up to his first official event in a few months ready to rock. Get back to me if they hold a U.S. Open at Kapalua.
5. Viktor Hovland top-five finish (+225): These odds get a little longer as you enter the territory where the top players in the world hang out. That's fine with me. Hovland has won in his last two starts and is second only to Morikawa in ball-striking over the last 12 months. The length of DeChambeau will be an advantage against him, but not an extraordinary one. He'll reel folks back in with an underrated approach game (fourth-best of anyone in this field over the last year).
