The Lone Star State started the ALDS hot Saturday as both the Rangers and Astros jumped out to 1-0 series leads over the Orioles and Twins, respectively. Teams who have won Game 1 in a best-of-five series have advanced to the next round 71.4% of the time, boding well for Texas and Houston, although anything can happen, as we've all seen.
Here's what we learned from the first day of ALDS play:
After dropping Game 1 of the ALDS 3-2 to the Rangers, the AL's top seed finds itself in a tough spot. It's a best-of-five series, so the Orioles are straightaway tasked with winning three of the next four against Texas. That's a tall order, as you might imagine. Across the history of best-of-five postseason series in Major League Baseball, the team losing Game 1 at home, as the Orioles did on Saturday, goes on to win that series less than 30% of the time.
Specific to this series, the O's may have even more cause to be concerned. The Rangers played in the Wild Card Series, which meant they didn't have their (quite thin) rotation lined up optimally for Game 1. That means that the O's lost a game in which their ace, Kyle Bradish, squared off against Andrew Heaney, who probably wouldn't have been in the Rangers' ALDS rotation had others been healthy. Baltimore draws Jordan Montgomery in Game 2 on Sunday, and Montgomery has been a frontline performer this season. They'll also draw Nathan Eovaldi when the series shifts back to Texas, and he looks back to ace-ish form after his outing against the Rays in the opening round. As well, Montgomery will catch both scheduled travel days at the right time and be able to start a deciding Game 5 on regular rest.
In the end, both history and the specifics of this series suggest the O's put themselves in a very unenviable spot by dropping Game 1.
In the bottom of the ninth and with the Rangers clinging to a 3-2 lead, Baltimore rookie phenom Gunnar Henderson notched a lead-off single. In an effort to put himself in scoring position, Henderson took off on a 2-1 changeup to the next batter, and behind the plate for Texas. Jonah Heim went to work:
The throw-out altered the course of Game 1 and may have also altered the arc of the series itself. That one heave by Heim improved the Rangers' chances of taking Game 1 by a whopping 22%. Indeed, the Rangers were able to get those final two outs and secure the crucial win. Had Henderson been safe, the outcome might have been entirely different.
Doubling the disappointment for Baltimore is that Henderson probably shouldn't have been running in that spot:
Where the blame falls for that miscommunication is uncertain, but suffice it to say it was a critical mistake by the O's. During the regular season, Heim was solidly above average at hosing runners, and he was that and more on one of the biggest defensive plays of the 2023 postseason so far.
Coming into the game, the Twins may have feared they would have limited scoring opportunities against Verlander. That wasn't the case. They simply failed to cash in the chances they had throughout the early portion of Game 1.
Minnesota's hitters took four plate appearances in the first inning with at least one runner on base. They took six more combined over the course of the second and third innings. Yet the Twins did not score a single run in those frames. Instead, they hit into a pair of double plays and watched as rookie Edouard Julien made a crucial baserunning mistake.
Predictably, perhaps, Verlander settled in as the game progressed and Minnesota's baserunner pool evaporated until the seventh inning, when Jorge Polanco launched a three-run shot and Royce Lewis followed it up with a solo home run of his own off reliever Hector Neris.
There's no way of knowing if the end result changes had the Twins pushed a few of those early runners across. But it's safe to write the Twins would've preferred to have found out for themselves.
Whereas the Twins failed to plate a run early, the Astros scored out of the gate. Second baseman Jose Altuve hit his franchise record 24th career postseason home run on the first pitch the Astros saw this playoffs:
Altuve's home run doubled as his eighth first-inning postseason home run. That's the most in major-league history, with only one other player (Albert Pujols) possessing as many as six such home runs, according to CBS Sports HQ's research team.
Altuve wasn't the only Astros star to jump the fence. Yordan Alvarez launched a two-run shot in the third inning to open up Houston's lead to 3-0.
The Astros would add a few more runs later, and Alvarez would launch his second home run of the game in the seventh inning. Those turned out to be a blessing given Minnesota's late charge.
Twins DH Royce Lewis and Rangers outfielder Evan Carter and third baseman Josh Jung proved on Saturday that they were ready for the big stage despite their rookie status.
Lewis launched his third home run in his third playoff game. Carter, meanwhile, ran his on-base offseason total to 10 times in 12 plate appearances. And then there was Jung, who homered and made a number of stellar defensive plays.
It just goes to show that experience isn't everything in October.
The Houson Astros took Game 1 of the best-of-five ALDS with a 6-4 win over the Minnesota Twins at Minute Maid Park. Houston starter Justin Verlander worked six scoreless innings, and Yordan Alvarez homered twice. Game 2 will be on Sunday back in Houston. In that one, Pablo López goes for the Twins versus Framber Valdez.
Remember that teams who win Game 1 in a best-of-five series then win the series more than 71% of the time. Bodes well for the Astros' attempt to reach a seventh consecutive ALCS.
Heath Bell, rock the mic:
We are in a golden age of closer entrances. Edwin Diaz. Jhoan Duran. Pressly. Several others. I love it. Go all-out with the theatrics.
And they have a 93.9% chance to close it out.
YES!!! The Pressly closer entrance is so good. God's gonna cut you down by Johnny Cash and the Minute Maid Park lights flash to the beat.
He has one of the best closer entrances in the game.
Astros still lead 6-4.
Correa's leadoff double proves moot. Astros lead 6-4 and need just three more outs to win.
Correa is at third with two outs here in the eighth. Astros lead 6-4.
The Astros had a 5-0 lead in Game 1 against the Twins, but Minnesota powered up in the road half of the seventh to make it 5-4. In the bottom of the frame, Houston cloutsman Yordan Alvarez gave his squad some needed breathing room with his second homer of the day:
That one left the bat at 104.6 mph and traveled 384 feet. Remarkably, it's also the first home run that Twins reliever Caleb Thielbar has allowed to a left-handed batter all season. As for Alvarez, one of the best pure hitters in all of baseball, he now has eight career postseason home runs in 48 games. His latest may yet turn out to be a vitally important one.
Going into the bottom of the seventh, they've trimmed the Houston lead to 5-4. That gives the Astros a 79.4% chance of winning the series opener.
The Astros seemed well on their way to an easy victory with a 5-0 lead and two outs in the seventh inning. That's when Minnesota's offense got hot. Jorge Polanco and Royce Lewis launched back-to-back home runs off Astros reliever Hector Neris, with Polanco's counting for three and Lewis' one.
Just like that, the Twins trailed by only one run with two-plus innings to go.
Lewis' home run was particularly notable given that he had homered twice in the Twins' Wild Card Series sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays. As a result, Lewis now has homered three times in 12 career postseason trips to the plate.
To think, Lewis had not taken at-bat since Sept. 19 before rejoining the lineup for the playoffs.
Speaking of seeing a different game, the Twins have launched back-to-back home runs to make it a 5-4 contest.
See a Different Game
I can see some team doing oversized batting gloves to increase the odds of HBPs. Inner glove is a proper fitting batting glove but the outside is a giant novelty clown hand. Seek out every advantage.
Per CBS Sports' research, teams who win Game 1 in a best-of-five series then win the series 71.4% of the time. That shouldn't come as a great surprise -- it's quite intuitive that taking a 1-0 advantage in a race to three more often than not results in getting there first-- but it shows how important it is to come out strong in these short series.
Two on with no outs for the Twins against Neris in the seventh. To state the obvious, Minny needs to cash in big time here.
He's through six against a good Minnesota offense, and he has yet to allow a run. He's struck out six against three walks.
Justin Verlander is through six scoreless innings and looking like, well, vintage Justin Verlander.
Abreu could be a Phillie with that many undone buttons.
They're up over the Twins 5-0 going into the sixth, and that translates to a 93.6% chance to win this ALDS opener.
José Abreu dumps one into left and the Astros are up 4-0.
Walking Martin Maldonado in front of Jose Altuve felt like asking for trouble but Kenta Maeda gets out of it.
Some of it is definitely according to plan and I'm not a fan. I miss when starting pitchers were baseball's main characters.
In the bottom of the ninth and with the Rangers clinging to a 3-2 lead, Baltimore rookie phenom Gunnar Henderson notched a lead-off single. In an effort to put himself in scoring position, Henderson took off on a 2-1 changeup to the next batter, and behind the plate for Texas Jonah Heim went to work:
That throw-out altered the course of Game 1 and may have also altered the arc of the series itself. That one heave by Heim improved the Rangers' chances of taking Game 1 by a whopping 22%. Indeed, the Rangers were able to get those final two outs and secure the crucial win. Had Henderson been safe, the outcome might have been entirely different.
Doubling the disappointment for Baltimore is that Henderson probably shouldn't have been running in that spot:
Where the blame falls for that miscommunication is uncertain, but suffice it to say it was a critical mistake by the O's. During the regular season, Heim was solidly above average at hosing runners, and he was that and more on one of the biggest defensive plays of the 2023 postseason so far.
Confirmation bias, but it feels like we've seen a lot of early exits for starting pitchers in the playoffs so far. Is that the plan? Trust in the bullpen?
Jose Altuve led off the bottom of the first inning with a home run, putting the Astros up 1- 0 and padding his lead in two notable respects. First, take a look at the home run in question:
According to Statcast, Altuve's blast had a 106 mph exit velocity and traveled some 377 feet.
Altuve's home run was his 24th career in the postseason. It was also his eighth of the first-inning variety. The former is an Astros franchise record (second place belongs to George Springer, with 19), while the latter is a MLB record (second place belongs to Albert Pujols, with second).
In comes Kenta Maeda. Ober was charged with three runs in his three innings. I was a bit surprised the Twins went with him over Joe Ryan in Game 1. Ober has the better season numbers but Ryan's the better bat-misser.
After dropping Game 1 of the ALDS 3-2 to the Rangers, the AL's top seed finds itself in a tough spot. It's a best-of-five series, so the Orioles are straightaway tasked with winning three of the next four against Texas. That's a tall order, as you might imagine. Across the history of best-of-five postseason series in Major League Baseball, the team losing Game 1 at home, as the Orioles did on Saturday, goes on to win that series less than 30% of the time.
Specific to this series, the O's may have even more cause to be concerned. The Rangers played in the Wild Card Series, which meant they didn't have their (quite thin) rotation lined up optimally for Game 1. That means that the O's lost a game in which their ace, Kyle Bradish, squared off against Andrew Heaney, who probably wouldn't have been in the Rangers' ALDS rotation had others been healthy. Baltimore draws Jordan Montgomery in Game 2 on Sunday, and Montgomery has been a frontline performer this season. They'll also face Nathan Eovaldi when the series shifts back to Texas, and he looked back to ace-ish form in his outing against the Rays in the opening round. As well, Montgomery will catch both scheduled travel days at the right time and be able to start a deciding Game 5 on regular rest.
In the end, both history and the specifics of this series suggest the O's put themselves in a very unenviable spot by dropping Game 1.
