It's a competitive category - the most disappointing team of the 2023 Major League Baseball season - but whatever "winner" of that designation you land on, the St. Louis Cardinals must figure prominently in your considerations.
The Cardinals, coming off a 93-win season and a division title in 2022 and with All-Star catcher Willson Contreras new to the fold, were the heavy favorites in the National League Central. Instead, they're poised for an array of unfortunate benchmarks. They'll miss the postseason for the first time since 2018. They'll almost certainly soon clinch their first losing season since 2007, and if paces hold the Cardinals will finish in last place in the division for the first time since 1990. Needless to say, such failures from a club that's been one of the most successful during the current century is grounds for deep and unsparing self-appraisal.
That brings us to the front office helmed by president of baseball operations John Mozeliak. There's no assailing his broader record of success as the Cardinals' lead operator. First as general manager and then in his current role, Mozeliak has guided the Cardinals since the fall of 2007, and they've enjoyed a tremendous level of success during his tenure - 10 playoff appearances and a World Series title in 2011. One lost season doesn't meaningfully tarnish those prior achievements, especially in light of the Cardinals' market size and (somewhat self-inflicted) payroll limitations, but it does raise questions about the future. That's especially the case since Mozeliak failed to address the rotation last offseason, and that flawed rotation was the prime mover in the Cardinals' 2023 failures.
It's hard to imagine that team owner Bill DeWitt Jr. is pondering a change at the top of baseball ops based on the current season, but Mozeliak has some things to prove in the coming winter. The Cardinals, according to Mozeliak's own words, are committed to adding multiple starting pitchers to the rotation (presumably at the front end), which amounts to an opportunity to correct the mistakes of the 2022-23 offseason. Whether he does so via free agency or trade or some combination thereof, there's a great deal of pressure for these additions to succeed and drive a return to relevance in 2024. If that doesn't come to pass, then change may be afoot.
Mozeliak signed a two-year contract extension in February of this year, which means his current deal runs through the 2025 season. At that time, however, Mozeliak dropped some not entirely subtle hints that his new contract would double as a transition period of sorts, in which Mozeliak would prime one or more of his front-office lieutenants - likely GM Michael Girsh and or scouting director/assistant GM Randy Flores - to assume command following the 2025 season.
Any kind of Mozeliak firing is nigh unthinkable, even if the 2024 season occasions 2023-grade struggles. What's not unthinkable, however, is that Mozeliak might of his own volition decide a change is warranted and hasten his exit. It's likewise theoretically possible that DeWitt could nudge him in that direction should his coming additions fail to fix the roster deficits and yield a return to the postseason.
What also seems unlikely is that DeWitt, whenever the post-Mozeliak era arrives, turns outside the organization to replace him. We've already seen teams with less success than the Cardinals have enjoyed in recent years - the Royals and White Sox, for instance - promote internal candidates to the tip-top of baseball ops. As such, it won't be surprising if Girsch or Flores slides in behind Mozeliak. The question, in light of the team's reversal of fortunes, is whether that happens before Mozeliak's contract is up. The 2024 season, and maybe even the early months of it, may answer that question.
Presumably on even more perilous footing is manager Oli Marmol. Marmol looked like a tactically adept manager in his first season with the Cardinals, at least until his mishandling of closer Ryan Helsley during the 2022 Wild Card Series against the Phillies. This season, though, has obviously been a ringing disappointment. From his public call-out of Tyler O'Neill a mere five days into the season to his occasionally strange explanations for his similarly strange bullpen decisions, Marmol has lost some of the shine he earned last year.
We know the typical arc of such things. When things fall apart, it's usually the manager who goes first, which in turn buys the front office more time to correct the course. In this instance, though, Marmol is perhaps a bit more yoked to Mozeliak than might usually be the case. Marmol was hired prior to the 2022 season for his willingness and capacity to work closely with the front office when it comes to in-game tactics and deployment of rostered players. Any firing of Marmol would thus reflect poorly on Mozeliak and company since he's mostly an extension of them. That would also put the Cardinals on their fourth manager since 2018 - not an appealing trend for a franchise renown for its stability. If Marmol is let go during the 2024 season, then it will likely be because the front office's winter decisions did not yield the desired results. That's to say it would likely herald additional change.
This adds up to a pivotal 2024 for the Mozeliak regime, at least as the regime exists with him at the top of it. Even if the Cardinals do invest at adequate levels and maybe even run a $200 million payroll for the first time in franchise history, the path forward is uncertain. One can easily argue that the Reds and Cubs and perhaps Brewers in the walk years of Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff will be as well poised to contend even if the Cardinals do the necessary work on the rotation. Changes to the roster in response to the failures of 2023 are no doubt in the offing. If 2024 doesn't go as hoped, then those changes could reach much higher - all the way to the top, in fact.
